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Tua Tagovailoa 2021 Outlook


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Rodgers went to Cal and was nationally ranked (please don't tell me his time at Butte is what made him a superstar), Wilson finished up at Wisconsin - not sure what your definition is of a big school?

I do - provided full health, I’d expect Tua to go from murdering the value of his chief weapons to elevating them to valuable fantasy assets.

that is the correct way to say it.    

4 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Yes.  When you have the best coach, the best O-Line, the best WR's, the best RB's, top D, not much else rests on the QB's shoulders.  


Can you name a good QB to come out of Bama and be a success in the NFL?  I bet you can't.


Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Kenny Stabler are the most famous ones that have won Super Bowls and are in the NFL HOF.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, kdko said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_starting_quarterbacks

 

Pick a good one from this list and what did they accomplish in the NFL.  I know you're a big Bama stan DHC, but get real.


I’ll try to stay on topic and talk about Tua.

 

It’s interesting that Tua beat Herbert head to head and has more wins than Herbert or Joe Burrow as an NFL starter 🤔

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Kenny Stabler are the most famous ones that have won Super Bowls and are in the NFL HOF.

 

 

Congrats dude, you went back 50 years 👍

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Kenny Stabler are the most famous ones that have won Super Bowls and are in the NFL HOF.

 

 

But is there anyone of note from when any of us were born...or our parents, for that matter 

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7 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Yes.  When you have the best coach, the best O-Line, the best WR's, the best RB's, top D, not much else rests on the QB's shoulders.  


Can you name a good QB to come out of Bama and be a success in the NFL?  I bet you can't.


Can you name any college which has consistently produced good quarterbacks in the last couple decades, or even more than 1 elite QB?  A couple of starters from Oklahoma, a couple from North Carolina. Then for elite guys that’s across the board, from California to Michigan to Wisconsin.  You seem to be singling out Alabama for lack of success in producing quality quarterbacks, but seem to have overlooked that no other school seems to have a secret sauce recipe for it either.

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Just now, kdko said:

Congrats dude, you went back 50 years 👍


The facts are what they are. If you want to speak the truth you can say Saban hasn’t had a succesfull NFL QB thus far and you would be right. Even going back to his time with LSU and Jamarcus Russell but you are incorrect when you say that Alabama has never had a good NFL QB. Time doesn’t stop at 50 years ago.

 

no reason to confuse people here because of your disdain for a certain program that is the winningest of all time.

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3 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

But is there anyone of note from when any of us were born...or our parents, for that matter 


your lifespan and your parents lifespan is not the entirety of the NFL or college football.

 

if you want to be factual I have no problem with it.

 

it’s not factual to say Alabama has never had a good QB in the NFL when an Alabama QB won the very first Super Bowl ever played.

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Just now, jumper said:


Can you name any college which has consistently produced good quarterbacks in the last couple decades, or even more than 1 elite QB?  A couple of starters from Oklahoma, a couple from North Carolina. Then for elite guys that’s across the board, from California to Michigan to Wisconsin.  You seem to be singling out Alabama for lack of success in producing quality quarterbacks, but seem to have overlooked that no other school seems to have a secret sauce recipe for it either.

 

It's a Tua thread, so naturally we're discussing Bama's inability to produce good NFL QB's.  Bama is the best college program, and their QB's cant take it to the next level.  Tua won't be any different imo.  Their guys are commanding high draft picks too (Tua/Jones (most likely) 1st rounder, Hurts 2nd).   He threw for under 100 yards in 3 games this year, looked lost a majority of the time, and was benched twice for Fitzpatrick.  Oof.  If the Dolphins didn't have a solid defense this guy would be causing his team to get blown out every game.  Feel free to @ me by the end of the year with these 3 Bama guys results.  It's just my IMO but the last several decades of history is on my side.

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6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


The facts are what they are. If you want to speak the truth you can say Saban hasn’t had a succesfull NFL QB thus far and you would be right. Even going back to his time with LSU and Jamarcus Russell but you are incorrect when you say that Alabama has never had a good NFL QB. Time doesn’t stop at 50 years ago.

Okay, I'll settle on all Bama QB's under Saban (+30 more years) are hot trash.  Glad we can agree on that and put this to bed.

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I'm not a Bama fan (in fact, I disdain Saban with a burning passion) but I struggle to understand all the hate on Tua. His season was mediocre, but he had a number of complicating factors (major injury, lack of anything remotely resembling a normal offseason, etc.) and it was his rookie season. 

When I saw him step in during the national title game, I thought - Saban finally found himself a great QB, fml (I dislike him that much). Nothing Tua did in the subsequent 2 years changed that, and 1 mediocre season as a rookie isn't going to change that. If he doesn't show material improvement this year? Then it's totally fair to say the outlook isn't good, but piling dirt on him after his rookie season reeks of the increasingly short window these guys are given in the social media era. They're not static, otherwise we'd never see players breakout. And if Tua does improve dramatically this year, that wouldn't be out of nowhere - he was a top recruit coming out of high school and college - yet there's a lot of talk as if that would be a stunning outcome.

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14 minutes ago, kdko said:

Okay, I'll settle on all Bama QB's under Saban (+30 more years) are hot trash.  Glad we can agree on that and put this to bed.

As long as you are willing to be accurate and factual I think we will get along just great. 👍


I agree that until recently Saban has been able to win without elite NFL QBs but a lot of that changed the last few years and it started with Tua. Since Saban started recruiting Tua his offensive philosophy has changed and Tua, Hurts, and now Jones are results of the QB recruiting and as I said earlier a lot of that credit goes to Steve Sarkisian and even Lane Kiffin and a more opened up offensive philosophy. 
 

nobody was drafting national champs like AJ McCarron, Greg McElroy, Jake Coker, Blake Sims in real life or in fantasy football so it’s not like this was a surprise to anyone.

 

Tua, Hurts, even Jones are highly ranked and being drafted as such because people who really know what they are doing are evaluating their individual talents and not discriminating against them because of where they chose to go to college. 
 

im fine with waiting a couple seasons to see how these guys develop. the 3 of them are products of Sabans shift in offensive philosophy while coach at Alabama so I’ll be interested to see how they do compare to previous QBs Saban has put in the league.

 

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58 minutes ago, kdko said:

That's not the point.  It's not that all small school QBs are great, but the best in the league went to smaller college programs.  There's no denying it.  All the best QB's in the league went to a smaller school (Mahomes, A-Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Prescott, etc.) or was like Brady and got benched for 2 years in college and had to fight their way to start, not just inherit it like big school QB's.  Deshaun Watson is really the only QB that comes to mind that is top 10 and from a big school.  And i'm sorry, but Tua will never be Watson.  Adversity and struggle builds these QB's up in college and makes them more pro-ready, then someone who starts for Alabama or Ohio State.  Buy into a Bama or Ohio State QB and more likely than not you're getting a bust.

 

Check out this list and how utterly disappointing it is:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_starting_quarterbacks

Rodgers went to Cal and was nationally ranked (please don't tell me his time at Butte is what made him a superstar), Wilson finished up at Wisconsin - not sure what your definition is of a big school? Brady, Brees, Manning all went to big schools too. If people got scared off Rodgers because he was a Jeff Tedford guy (who unlike Saban, did produce busts at QB) then they were terribly wrong too.

No one under Saban was a high draft pick at QB until Tua (Hurts absolutely would not have been a 2nd rounder had it not been for his year at Oklahoma), so you really can't say Saban produced busts, but I agree that he didn't produce well-regarded NFL prospects at QB, until the last couple of years.

Based on your logic, RIP Trevor Lawrence bc he was a top recruit, went to a top program like Clemson, and is now doomed because he never faced adversity? I don't buy that and certainly wouldn't bet against him being successful.

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


your lifespan and your parents lifespan is not the entirety of the NFL or college football.

 

if you want to be factual I have no problem with it.

 

it’s not factual to say Alabama has never had a good QB in the NFL when an Alabama QB won the very first Super Bowl ever played.

I’m just busting your chops man lol 

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17 hours ago, trilly said:

Rodgers went to Cal and was nationally ranked (please don't tell me his time at Butte is what made him a superstar), Wilson finished up at Wisconsin - not sure what your definition is of a big school? Brady, Brees, Manning all went to big schools too. If people got scared off Rodgers because he was a Jeff Tedford guy (who unlike Saban, did produce busts at QB) then they were terribly wrong too.

No one under Saban was a high draft pick at QB until Tua (Hurts absolutely would not have been a 2nd rounder had it not been for his year at Oklahoma), so you really can't say Saban produced busts, but I agree that he didn't produce well-regarded NFL prospects at QB, until the last couple of years.

Based on your logic, RIP Trevor Lawrence bc he was a top recruit, went to a top program like Clemson, and is now doomed because he never faced adversity? I don't buy that and certainly wouldn't bet against him being successful.

 

Cal wasn't even a top 10 program that year.  When I say big schools, i mean BIG schools.  The powerhouse programs.  Bama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, etc.  Rodgers was throwing to a bunch of nobodies during his time at Cal (no one went pro), nor did any of their linemen.  JJ Arrington was the one prize piece on that offense (lol).  Rodgers still carried that team.  Similarly with Wilson.  He had a good RB with Gordon, but am I missing the stud WR he had..?  He made that offense.  Comparatively speaking Tua had 2 of his WR's go in the 1st round of last years draft (Jeudy/Ruggs).  Devonta Smith and Najee who will probably go in the first next year as well.  Think it was hard to hit these guys? You're always going to have to throw the ball into tight windows in the NFL, you'll hardly have a WR that's open with 10-15 yards around him.  This is a passing league, and that program specifically doesn't prime you for NFL success imo.

 

I did give Clemson credit for producing Watson, and T-Law is a far different QB than Tua.  Those 2 would have been great no matter where they went to school.  No one's going to change my mind on Bama QB's though, it's just my opinion and I don't think i'll end up eating crow because of it either.

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46 minutes ago, kdko said:

I did give Clemson credit for producing Watson, and T-Law is a far different QB than Tua.  Those 2 would have been great no matter where they went to school.  No one's going to change my mind on Bama QB's though, it's just my opinion and I don't think i'll end up eating crow because of it either.

Suit yourself, to each their own. I hate Bama but to use that as a criteria for whether or not a QB will be good is a headscratcher to me. The Chargers (my fav team) would've missed out on Herbert if they just said no Oregon QBs bc Harrington, Akili Smith, and Mariota have been highly picked busts.

These guys are their own individuals above all else and deserve to be judged on their merits, IMO.

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7 minutes ago, trilly said:

Suit yourself, to each their own. I hate Bama but to use that as a criteria for whether or not a QB will be good is a headscratcher to me. The Chargers (my fav team) would've missed out on Herbert if they just said no Oregon QBs bc Harrington, Akili Smith, and Mariota have been highly picked busts.

These guys are their own individuals above all else and deserve to be judged on their merits, IMO.

The second part of that criteria is 'who did Herbert have around him?'  Tua had 2 of the top 10 WR's in college football (one being the #1 in Jeudy), and an additional 2 that were top 25 (Devonta and Waddle).  I don't think Oregon had one receiver ranked in the top 50.  Bama is stacked on both sides of the ball from top to bottom.  I'm most interested in someone being able to explain how Tua's lack of adversity is somehow going to help make him successful in the NFL, rather than hinder him

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Just now, BMcP said:

How do Tua’s nine starts from last season factor into the “adversity” calculus?

He didn't look like a franchise QB.. as Burrow and Herbert did.  Pulling him out of games, and being interested in Deshaun Watson doesn't bode well for Tua's outlook either.  Being interested in Watson at all shows what the franchise thinks about him.  These are the guys who see this guy get to work every day.

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51 minutes ago, kdko said:

The second part of that criteria is 'who did Herbert have around him?'  Tua had 2 of the top 10 WR's in college football (one being the #1 in Jeudy), and an additional 2 that were top 25 (Devonta and Waddle).  I don't think Oregon had one receiver ranked in the top 50.  Bama is stacked on both sides of the ball from top to bottom.  I'm most interested in someone being able to explain how Tua's lack of adversity is somehow going to help make him successful in the NFL, rather than hinder him

To be clear, I think some adversity is good for anyone, QB or not. However, is it required for success? I don't buy that and neither do you, if you're not worried about Lawrence's prospects since he's only played on a stacked team at Clemson. Adversity can also be relative - I wouldn't say Peyton faced adversity (and he achieved greatness), but some could say his inability to win a national title was adversity bc of the expectations.

I get that Tua's been surrounded by a great cast, but so have past Bama QBs and that alone didn't have them highly regarded as pro prospects. In fantasy, people often avoid a WR with a bad QB situation - if Tua was so meh, would his WRs have put up those numbers? Strong 2020 numbers for DeVonta Smith don't invalidate Tua, because we have no idea yet what Mac Jones will turn out to be. It could very well be that Tua and Mac are good/great and complemented the WRs well. Or they may totally flop - time will tell.

Another recent example would be Joe Burrow - he had Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, two elite talents, along with Terrace Marshall, and he certainly showed a lot of promise from his rookie season. I guess he faced adversity at a big school, but not sure how you would classify that.

Re: your point on being interested in Watson...when a 25 yr old franchise QB becomes available (well, he's trying to be at least), nearly every team is going to be interested. I don't think that's damning, it's more an indication of how unprecedented it is for a player like him to potentially be on the market.

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I personally can't shake his last two games and the consecutive turds despite the team fighting for their playoff lives.   The Buffalo game wasn't all his fault of course but he threw 3 INT's in the third quarter, when the backups were in and a comeback wasn't impossible.  

I loved this guy and i still have hope he'll figure it out, but for fantasy's sake he's gonna be a non starter for me, and I feel squeamish about even having him as my third QB in my 2 QB league.   Bottomless floor

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41 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I personally can't shake his last two games and the consecutive turds despite the team fighting for their playoff lives.   The Buffalo game wasn't all his fault of course but he threw 3 INT's in the third quarter, when the backups were in and a comeback wasn't impossible.  

I loved this guy and i still have hope he'll figure it out, but for fantasy's sake he's gonna be a non starter for me, and I feel squeamish about even having him as my third QB in my 2 QB league.   Bottomless floor

Good analysis. It reminded me of the Josh Allen 2019 thread before he got Stefon Diggs.

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

I personally can't shake his last two games and the consecutive turds despite the team fighting for their playoff lives.   The Buffalo game wasn't all his fault of course but he threw 3 INT's in the third quarter, when the backups were in and a comeback wasn't impossible.  

I loved this guy and i still have hope he'll figure it out, but for fantasy's sake he's gonna be a non starter for me, and I feel squeamish about even having him as my third QB in my 2 QB league.   Bottomless floor

Perhaps - but what of his ceiling?  He entered that Buffalo game as the only QB not to have thrown an INT from a clean pocket.  You have to assume they are not only going to upgrade his protection, but also his surrounding weapons.  And now he should be fully over a devastating hip injury that probably limited what he could accomplish downfield and without having to constantly worry about a sudden in-game benching.  And with a full off-season to prepare as a starter.  We can’t simply ignore what he accomplished in college in favor of a meager sample he put up as an injured rookie in a highly unusual season with a lot of uncertainty concerning his role.

He won’t cost much of anything - at minimum, he’s a great high-upside flier.

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On 2/25/2021 at 5:39 PM, kdko said:

 

 

It's a Tua thread, so naturally we're discussing Bama's inability to produce good NFL QB's.  Bama is the best college program, and their QB's cant take it to the next level.  Tua won't be any different imo.  Their guys are commanding high draft picks too (Tua/Jones (most likely) 1st rounder, Hurts 2nd).   He threw for under 100 yards in 3 games this year, looked lost a majority of the time, and was benched twice for Fitzpatrick.  Oof.  If the Dolphins didn't have a solid defense this guy would be causing his team to get blown out every game.  Feel free to @ me by the end of the year with these 3 Bama guys results.  It's just my IMO but the last several decades of history is on my side.

If Hurts didn’t go to Oklahoma and look like a great college QB then he wouldn’t have even been in the discussion for the 2nd round. That was Oklahoma and their coaching and scheme and not Saban. I think Tua has a lot of natural talent and played with a great team and that is why he was a high draft pick. But I don’t think it was due to Saban’s tutelage. I could be wrong though.

Tua is really the only Bama QB under Saban that has looked like he could be a good NFL QB.

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