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Tua Tagovailoa 2021 Outlook


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6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Good analysis. It reminded me of the Josh Allen 2019 thread before he got Stefon Diggs.

I',m not sure how 2020 Tua at all compares with 2019 Josh. Josh in 2019 was pretty much an anti Tua- taking big risks, making big plays, and also huge mistakes, completely fearless to a fault.    Tua's 2020 was largely risk averse.   

The one thing you can say in comparison of the two is that their OC's both kept it conservative, hoping their D could win them into the playoffs, and that 2020 change for Josh made the world of difference.....yadda yadda yadda Tua could have a similar fate.     However, if it doesn't happen, Josh Allen was probably still a top 10 QB, especially with the rushing TD's.  Tua has no rushing upside.   

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Rodgers went to Cal and was nationally ranked (please don't tell me his time at Butte is what made him a superstar), Wilson finished up at Wisconsin - not sure what your definition is of a big school?

I do - provided full health, I’d expect Tua to go from murdering the value of his chief weapons to elevating them to valuable fantasy assets.

that is the correct way to say it.    

4 hours ago, BMcP said:

Perhaps - but what of his ceiling?  He entered that Buffalo game as the only QB not to have thrown an INT from a clean pocket.  You have to assume they are not only going to upgrade his protection, but also his surrounding weapons.  And now he should be fully over a devastating hip injury that probably limited what he could accomplish downfield and without having to constantly worry about a sudden in-game benching.  And with a full off-season to prepare as a starter.  We can’t simply ignore what he accomplished in college in favor of a meager sample he put up as an injured rookie in a highly unusual season with a lot of uncertainty concerning his role.

He won’t cost much of anything - at minimum, he’s a great high-upside flier.

I recall his camp stating the hip injury wasn't an issue anymore, but I can understand a lot of that being optimism around the draft to help ensure he's drafted as high as possible for financial reasons.    As far as the upside goes, the main reason I'm not keen on it is that I don't think he'll run much.   He did pop in 3 TD's but had maybe 10 rushing yards a game.  

Ultimately I feel that he'll improve significantly in 2021, but I can't see a big leap for fantasy's sake.  I'm picturing some good games alongside some duds, and there are 20 QB's or so who can get me 20 points a week if i need it, but only a handful of those are capable of absolutely destroying my week. 

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47 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I',m not sure how 2020 Tua at all compares with 2019 Josh. Josh in 2019 was pretty much an anti Tua- taking big risks, making big plays, and also huge mistakes, completely fearless to a fault.    Tua's 2020 was largely risk averse.   

The one thing you can say in comparison of the two is that their OC's both kept it conservative, hoping their D could win them into the playoffs, and that 2020 change for Josh made the world of difference.....yadda yadda yadda Tua could have a similar fate.     However, if it doesn't happen, Josh Allen was probably still a top 10 QB, especially with the rushing TD's.  Tua has no rushing upside.   


I thought Tua had 100 rushing yards and 3 Rushing TDs? That was coming off a terrible hip injury too.

 

the one thing you can say about both is that they underachieved based off sky high expectations in their rookie years. Allen got an all pro receiver in Diggs and not bums like Robert foster and duke Williams to throw to and started looking much better.

 

Tua will look much better with an OC that can turn him loose like they did josh Allen and hopefully better pass catchers

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3 TD's and 100 yards in 10 games is about 3 points a game.  Allen's rushing stats the last two years are about 11 ppg.  Tua didn't run much in college, so my opinion is that it's unwise to bank on rushing much for next season.   

Tua with an aggressive game plan is something everyone wants to see.   I just can't count on it.   However, I'm interested in revisiting this once the draft ends.   He's obviously in the mix as a QB2 I imagine but how will he compare to the rest in terms of ceiling etc?  

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14 hours ago, BrianM said:

3 TD's and 100 yards in 10 games is about 3 points a game.  Allen's rushing stats the last two years are about 11 ppg.  Tua didn't run much in college, so my opinion is that it's unwise to bank on rushing much for next season.   

Tua with an aggressive game plan is something everyone wants to see.   I just can't count on it.   However, I'm interested in revisiting this once the draft ends.   He's obviously in the mix as a QB2 I imagine but how will he compare to the rest in terms of ceiling etc?  


Tua didn’t have to run much in college cause his WRs did most of that for him but that doesn’t mean that he can’t run. Here is one example of Tua scrambling before his hip injury:

 

as you can see from this 44 yard rushing TD he is more than capable of breaking off big plays with his legs. The more comfortable he gets with his hip the more you will see plays like this.

 

despite Tua recovering from a hip injury and having no training camp or preseason we were able to see glimpses of what Tua can do on a more regular basis as the starter from these plays he made in the NFL just a few month ago.

 
Here he scrambses away from pressure, he jukes out Buddha Baker, one of the best safeties in football and runs for 20 yards.


In this video you can see Tua at the goal one, shake off a rushing DB, setup up and through the pocket, fakes inside and cuts back outside causing a defender to fall to the ground and stroll is to the end zone.

 

from high school to college to his rookie year in the NFL Tua has displayed plenty of scrambling ability as I have layed out before you in the 3 videos above. He is capable of scrambling and will do so when necessary but he also is a passer so he won’t take off as quickly as Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. 
 

the main problem I foresee from a fantasy perspective is if Brian Flores will ever open the offense up the way it needs to be for Tua to be at his best. Flores runs the ball and plays defense and likes playing with a lead and a conservative game plan. Flores comes off as the kind of coach that will try and nurse a 10 point lead since he loves his defense as oppose to letting the offense continue to roll. This obviously would have a huge negative impact on Tua’s fantasy football prospects. If Flores insists on Tua being just a game manager then he will be a middling QB2. If he allows Tua to take control of the offense and not be as risk averse of offense Tua can be a top 5 fantasy QB. That’s how wide his range of outcomes are right now based on his circumstances with a defensive minded head coach and inexperienced co-offensive coordinators. It’s not like Tua is working with Andy Reid or Sean Peyton...

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While we don’t know exactly what to expect from this offense in 2021, I think it’s safe to assume they will preserve what worked best under the Gailey scheme: namely, tempo and RPOs, which should provide Tua plenty of opportunities to do damage both through the air and on the ground.  Both OCs have many years of coaching experience at both the collegiate and pro levels, so I don’t consider a lack of experience a concern here.  And I would also expect the offense to open up much more with a fully healthy Tua - he possesses the accuracy, touch and ball placement to utilize every area of the field.  I think the conservative nature of the offense last year was the result of a conscious decision on the coaches’ part to ease Tua in and give him some defined reads rather than open up the entire playbook for him too soon, given his injury and other extenuating circumstances.

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On 2/19/2021 at 7:25 PM, jumper said:

Depends on how patient Miami is willing to be. It may take Tua a bit to blossom, think of Bree's early career.  If they're expecting him to be a Mahomes level talent they've got the wrong guy, but Tua is definitely a franchise QB. 

 

Definitely? 

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On 2/25/2021 at 2:16 PM, kdko said:

Said it once before, but Alabama QB's suck, and I don't think Tua is any different.  They aren't primed for success in a program that has an o-line and pocket that holds up every play, WR's that are 10-15 yards open, and a coach that outcoaches the opposition every time.  The best QB's come from small schools where they had constant adversity.  I think this will be the next big Bama QB flop sadly. 

 

If that's the case then why are Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray so good? This logic applies to Oklahoma and the Big 12 too. Narratives that "QBs from X University suck" doesn't make a lot of sense because that's virtually the case for every university. Playing QB in the league is hard and there is no "QBU". 

 

Also "the best QBs come from small schools" is an unfounded claim. Peyton Manning went to Tennessee and Brady went to Michigan. Deshaun Watson Clemson. Aaron Rodgers Cal. Russell Wilson Wisconsin. Justin Herbert Oregon. The list goes on. 

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:02 PM, kdko said:

 

It's just a testament to how good of a program Bama has.  Tua is more apt to be the next AJ McCarron than the next Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson.

 

Is it foolish?  What good QB has ever come out of Alabama since Saban has been there?  They produce complete busts, and this is probably your bias coming into play trying to refute that.  Not a believer in Hurts or Jones either.  I think anyone that bites on Jones early in the first (which someone will) is going to whiff completely.

What QB ever came out of Bama that was high on anyone's draft board other than Tua? It's not like most of anyone thought AJ McCaron or Greg McIlroy would be great NFL QBs while they were in college. 

 

But again you can apply that logic to every university. There is no "QBU". 

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Well Tua has been pretty horrible so far, at least from a fantasy perspective.  Also murdered Davonte Parker's value.

You guys really thank that will change dramatically in 2021?  They were a much tougher opponent when Fitz was under center...

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On 3/5/2021 at 5:46 PM, Deuce1042 said:

 

If that's the case then why are Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray so good? This logic applies to Oklahoma and the Big 12 too. Narratives that "QBs from X University suck" doesn't make a lot of sense because that's virtually the case for every university. Playing QB in the league is hard and there is no "QBU". 

 

Also "the best QBs come from small schools" is an unfounded claim. Peyton Manning went to Tennessee and Brady went to Michigan. Deshaun Watson Clemson. Aaron Rodgers Cal. Russell Wilson Wisconsin. Justin Herbert Oregon. The list goes on. 

I've already responded back to these type of points in other posts in the thread.  Feel feel to reread them

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well Tua has been pretty horrible so far, at least from a fantasy perspective.  Also murdered Davonte Parker's value.

You guys really thank that will change dramatically in 2021?  They were a much tougher opponent when Fitz was under center...

I do - provided full health, I’d expect Tua to go from murdering the value of his chief weapons to elevating them to valuable fantasy assets.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well Tua has been pretty horrible so far, at least from a fantasy perspective.  Also murdered Davonte Parker's value.

You guys really thank that will change dramatically in 2021?  They were a much tougher opponent when Fitz was under center...

Funny, Tua’s rookie season wasn’t all that different than all world QB Deshaun Watson.

 

watson had 8 more TDs but 4 more interceptions, completion percentage Tua was better. Tua had more passing yards.

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29 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Funny, Tua’s rookie season wasn’t all that different than all world QB Deshaun Watson.

 

watson had 8 more TDs but 4 more interceptions, completion percentage Tua was better. Tua had more passing yards.

 

Ehhh, Tua played 3 more games than Watson.  Great argument

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I’m not sure what we would hope to prove by comparing Tua’s and Deshaun’s rookie seasons; while Watson is undoubtedly one of the best QBs in the game, we don’t need Tua to reach that elite level to become a quality fantasy starter or enable his receiving weapons to retain fantasy value.  Similarly, comparing Tua to the likes of Burrow and Herbert seems borderline unfair - Burrow, even in his abbreviated season, had one of the best rookie seasons ever, and Herbert enjoyed arguably the best rookie season in NFL history.  These players are outliers.  Tua ended up having a fine rookie season despite several mitigating circumstances, and perhaps most importantly, has now checked off the “adversity” box on the future-franchise-QB checklist, albeit relatively later in his brief career.  He displayed calm in the pocket, made sound decisions with the ball for the most part, demonstrated a willingness to target tight windows when necessary, and even showed flashes of what he could do with his legs.  PFF graded him above the likes of Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and David Carr as rookies.

Purely from a fantasy standpoint, Tua holds appeal as a post-hype sleeper who should provide value as a late-round investment, as so many will have already written him off after failing to reward owners in a truncated, bizarre first professional season.

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17 hours ago, kdko said:

I've already responded back to these type of points in other posts in the thread.  Feel feel to reread them

I've read them and it's mostly boiling down QB development to a narrative that's kind of lazy. Josh Allen is an outlier as far as QBs who are even talented enough to get drafted AND played at Wyoming. QBs who play for USC are not. That's why they're at USC and not SMU. 

 

You know what both have in common? The overwhelming majority of QBs who play for both schools would never succeed in the NFL. 

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


that’s why you look at completion percentage.

 

Tua was over 64% Deshaun was 61%

 

 

 

This stat doesn't mean much without context. Tua didn't push the ball downfield as much as Deshaun did. 

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I suspect Tua will be in the FA pool in most 12 team, 1 QB leagues.  He was decent in real life, for a rookie, I will give him that.  In fantasy, in most formats, FA pool is probably where he belongs.

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Saw this yesterday on a 'Phins fan board...

This scenario from the folks at PFF (via Yahoo! Sports)

"PFF predicts that Deshaun Watson would be acquired by the Miami Dolphins — who trade the No. 3 pick, Xavien Howard and and two more first-round picks. The Patriots then would trade the No. 15 pick for Tua Tagovailoa, which ultimately would lead to the pick going to the Texans.

Here’s what PFF said:
"Houston trades the rights to Tua Tagovailoa for New England’s first-rounder, as the Patriots trade out of the first round for the second straight year. Pairing Samuel with Xavien Howard (see the trade at Pick No. 3) gives the Houston Texans, who were the eighth-worst team at turning salary into WAR at the cornerback position in 2020, a pair of coverage guys with which to rebuild their defense in the Justin Fields era.""

That would be one crazy deal.

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For sake of argument, let's say Tua stays in Miami and the team decides to build around him.  If you were team GM, what would you do to build the best possible team for him in 2021 and beyond? 

1.   Spend big in FA in 2021?  yes/no    If yes, what position (or which player in particular)? 

2.  Trade the 1.3 pick (for more picks and/or non-QB player)?  yes/no    

3.  What position to draft with first pick?   WR, OT, RB, defense/other?

4.  Draft an RB in the first 2 rounds?  yes/no  (current picks, 1.3, 1.23, 2.36, 2.54)


 

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17 minutes ago, jumper said:

For sake of argument, let's say Tua stays in Miami and the team decides to build around him.  If you were team GM, what would you do to build the best possible team for him in 2021 and beyond? 

1.   Spend big in FA in 2021?  yes/no    If yes, what position (or which player in particular)? 

2.  Trade the 1.3 pick (for more picks and/or non-QB player)?  yes/no    

3.  What position to draft with first pick?   WR, OT, RB, defense/other?

4.  Draft an RB in the first 2 rounds?  yes/no  (current picks, 1.3, 1.23, 2.36, 2.54)


 

I’ll take a stab:

1.  Yes, probably never a better time to spend it if you have it than this year.  I’d be all about Golladay (and it appears their actual GM is already ahead of me here).

2.  I’d likely trade down to a QB-needy team - the more picks the better, and that would likely preserve their chances of drafting a top WR/Pitts.

3. Best offensive player available - lineman or skill position.

4.  Yes - provided Harris or Etienne is available (and provided they haven’t already signed Aaron Jones).  Otherwise draft a RB in third round or later and pair him with a free agent on a sensible, short-term deal.

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On 3/8/2021 at 7:58 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


that’s why you look at completion percentage.

 

Tua was over 64% Deshaun was 61%

 

 

3 yard passes are pretty easy to complete, though. 

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2 hours ago, jumper said:

For sake of argument, let's say Tua stays in Miami and the team decides to build around him.  If you were team GM, what would you do to build the best possible team for him in 2021 and beyond? 

1.   Spend big in FA in 2021?  yes/no    If yes, what position (or which player in particular)? 

2.  Trade the 1.3 pick (for more picks and/or non-QB player)?  yes/no    

3.  What position to draft with first pick?   WR, OT, RB, defense/other?

4.  Draft an RB in the first 2 rounds?  yes/no  (current picks, 1.3, 1.23, 2.36, 2.54)


 

 

1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I’ll take a stab:

1.  Yes, probably never a better time to spend it if you have it than this year.  I’d be all about Golladay (and it appears their actual GM is already ahead of me here).

2.  I’d likely trade down to a QB-needy team - the more picks the better, and that would likely preserve their chances of drafting a top WR/Pitts.

3. Best offensive player available - lineman or skill position.

4.  Yes - provided Harris or Etienne is available (and provided they haven’t already signed Aaron Jones).  Otherwise draft a RB in third round or later and pair him with a free agent on a sensible, short-term deal.

 

That's pretty good BMcP. I like it. My turn...

I would definitely trade out of 1.3 if I can. I want more draft picks. Carolina at #8 makes a lot of sense for both teams. At #8 I think I can still get a blue chip prospect.

As a general rule I would build through the draft, not FA. And, focus on building both lines (build from the trenches out). The recent trade for I. Wilson could pay HUGE dividends. Can't take any credit for it, but I'm definitely pulling for him to get his head right.

Some real good RB's are gonna be available. I should have my pick at #18 (Harris or Eitenne), and #36 (Etienne or J. Williams). I'm drafting one of them to go along with Gaskins. I'm not signing A. Jones (assuming he doesn't get tagged). He's gonna cost too much, and I like Gaskins.

I like Golladay, so I'd be exploring that possibility. But, I'm not spending big in FA. I can get W. Fuller or C. Davis cheaper, and they're both a year younger.

And, I'm bringing Fitzy back (assuming he doesn't retire or get a starting gig elsewhere)! It's still Tua's job, but if he can't get it done, we're rolling with The Beard!!!

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