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Matthew Boyd 2021 Outlook


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Boyd was dreadful last year. Only reason I have some interest is based on the rumors of the ball being "de-juiced." If anyone stands to gain the most from less HRs, it would be Boyd. Boyd still has strikeout potential and should be allowed to go deep into games and have a relatively unrestricted innings limit.

With an NFBC ADP of 296, he's basically free.

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He’s a fantastic gamble. He threw the changeup more and it was getting swings and misses. The BBs went up a bit but that generally isn’t a big problem for him.

 

All he needs to do is just not give up so many HRs. Enter the dejuiced ball.

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  • 2 weeks later...
41 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

Im not putting too much stock in last year's "season" - Ill be buying low on lots of guys who were lousy last year....Boyd is one of them

He was pretty lousy in 2018 and 2019 too.

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2 hours ago, Big Tuna said:

Im not putting too much stock in last year's "season" - Ill be buying low on lots of guys who were lousy last year....Boyd is one of them

You may as well double down and go after Robbie Ray too.

 

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4 hours ago, jb_power said:

You may as well double down and go after Robbie Ray too.

 

Hi it’s me, I own both of these polished turds in dynasty. Yolo

as for risk/reward, yeah they are cheap and have k upside.
 

id rather have bad pitchers who can ring up the Ks than bad pitchers with prospect hype (cough, Dylan cease)

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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What kind of K upside does Boyd really have? Obviously, 2019 gives us an upside, but that seems to be more outlier than anything else. He piled up Ks in 2019, but never has in any other point in his career. Even last year, he struck out just 60 in 60.1 ip. Aside from 2019, his career k/9 is 7.8, and if he doesn't get a ton of Ks like he did in 2019, I just don't see the value. 

Edited by Flyman75
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if I remember right, he seemed to have one melt down inning a game. The rest of the game he would be pretty decent. Hrs allowed and Walks can also tend to be an issue.

He always seems to me like he should be better than what he is.  But I would take a chance on him at the right ADP.

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  • 1 month later...

He's a good stream with a matchup against Oakland on Sunday. Considering the 2 (nearly 3) out of 3 quality starts and the soft opponent coming up, another strong showing will likely lead to a lot of adds. I'm adding now and crossing my fingers for continued success. It looks like the tigers are going to let him throw near 100 pitches consistently which is valuable in QS leagues. 

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Had a really solid outing again, pitched into the 8th with 5ks and had the lead until he surrendered a leadoff solo HR to Sean Murphy. Still faced a few hitters after and ended up going 7.1 IP with only 4 hits and 1 BB. He's keeping the HRs down, not walking guys, and pitching deep into games. Normally I'd say you should shop him and see what he can return before he has a bad outing, but he has some upside to be a real good fantasy starter, for sure. If Carlos Rodon is a hold right now, Boyd is even more so. 

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[...] had a terrible 2020 but I downplay that - could be a solid mid rotation fantasy contributor if he continues....Im definitely not looking to sell unless I get a really good offer

Edited by tonycpsu
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2 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

I own him in 3 leagues.  Guessing he will turn in to a streamer at some point.  Unless he changed something him and Duffy will be what they usually are.

 

I wouldn’t be so sure. He’s looked pretty good so far.

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1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

I wouldn’t be so sure. He’s looked pretty good so far.

He's had good stretches in the past. It seems like nearly every year (obviously not last year) I'm able to pick him up in 12-teamers and I think I have a year-long guy but it never turns out that way. His bad stretches are just as bad as his good ones are good. 

He's been a FT starter for basically about 6 years and his career ERA hovers ~5. I'll hold him until things go south but I'm on board with @Dylanfan66's way of thinking here. I just hope he stays healthy because he's one of my favorite and most trustworthy streamers over the past several years. Just don't be surprised when the wheels fall off and enjoy the ride for now.

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On 4/19/2021 at 12:23 PM, Dylanfan66 said:

I own him in 3 leagues.  Guessing he will turn in to a streamer at some point.  Unless he changed something him and Duffy will be what they usually are.

Nah. I think Duffy is legit this time around, his stuff is much better then Boyd's.  Boyd will be serviceable until it gets warm and he catches a case of the HRs like he does every summer. Then losses all momentum and never gets it back in the 2nd half even when it cools back down.

 Boyd has a career 2.73 ERA in April in 125 IP (so decent SS here)  Every other month is above 4.  

HR/9 per Month:

April: 0.65

May: 0.95

June: 2.24

July: 1.32

August: 2.28

Sept: 2.04

 

Maybe, this version of Boyd will keep the ERA  lower then normal with a more committed FB/CH vs RHH. However, he's getting less whiffs off this approach.

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Why did he leave his start against the White Sox after 1 inning? Was it just that he threw too many pitches? Obviously it wasn't a total disaster since it was just an inning, but it's probably time to monitor him closely in case his Homeritis is returning. 

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9 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Why did he leave his start against the White Sox after 1 inning? Was it just that he threw too many pitches? Obviously it wasn't a total disaster since it was just an inning, but it's probably time to monitor him closely in case his Homeritis is returning. 

left knee issue

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/04/30/detroit-tigers-matthew-boyd-miss-next-start-but-could-dodge-il/7410009002/

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