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Antonio Gibson 2021 Outlook


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Fantasy Pros has him at #34 in standard. 1) Seems like there's zero chance he's there by pre-season. 2) If he is he's the perfect early third guy with upside. 

I just can't see a world where a guy who was a receiver in college doesn't take over the majority of passing down snaps next year, and if he does he has top 1 potential. No joke. 

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If WFT is breaking in another young QB, I will worry about Gibson taking the next step.  I did like what I saw from T.H., however, I think it was overblown in the one playoff game.  Can he be the answer week in-week out after he is on film?  I guess McKissic can be a thorn in the side if game script goes out the window early.  I'm only singling negatives because I believe in Gibson's talent.  To me he can be a top 10 fantasy RB.  If WFT gets a good QB this off-season, I'm more likely to reach for Gibson.

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On 2/16/2021 at 5:40 PM, USWAY said:

Fantasy Pros has him at #34 in standard. 1) Seems like there's zero chance he's there by pre-season. 2) If he is he's the perfect early third guy with upside. 

I just can't see a world where a guy who was a receiver in college doesn't take over the majority of passing down snaps next year, and if he does he has top 1 potential. No joke. 

It’s not just his ability to catch the ball, but more-so his ability to pass block. When he can do that, his role will expand. Until then, we’ll keep getting more of 2020. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/17/2021 at 8:37 PM, Flyman75 said:

It’s not just his ability to catch the ball, but more-so his ability to pass block. When he can do that, his role will expand. Until then, we’ll keep getting more of 2020. 

 

Yeah, I'm not sure of his numbers pass blocking -wise. Stands to reason though, that there's growth room in that aspect due to lack of experience. Seemed fine watching him last year, but I guess it only takes your qb getting blown up once to lose some responsibilities at that level.

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

The Fitzpatrick and Samuel signings make me happier as a Gibson owner. 

Agreed. WFT offense should look much different in 2021. Fitz/McLauren/Samuel/Gibson should be able to move the ball in chunks, making all those McKissic receptions unnecessary.

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  • 2 months later...

ESPN's John Keim reports the Football Team wants Antonio Gibson to run more pass routes in 2021. 

Getting Gibson more heavily involved in the team's passing attack would be a natural progression for the second-year back. He was used mostly as a pass catcher at Memphis in 2019, recording 38 grabs for 735 yards and eight touchdowns. Gibson in his rookie season averaged 13 pass routes and 3.07 targets per game while J.D. McKissic functioned as Washington's main pass catching back (25 routes and 6.6 targets per game). McKissic thrived as Alex Smith's preferred check down option through much of the season, making Gibson a little more game script dependent than fantasy managers would have liked. Gibson, being drafted as the 15th RB off the draft board, could be a rare early-round value pick if he absorbs more opportunity as a pass catcher with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Nineteen percent of Fitzpatrick's targets over the past two seasons have gone to running backs. 

Source: ESPN.com
May 28, 2021, 11:32 AM ET
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Posted (edited)

This is my first look into Gibson so your opinions are a great help and appreciated. I'm basically neutral on him but always pass on him in mock drafts. He has a Mid to High 2ND round ADP and I'm normally aiming for Akers or Najee and dismissing AG which might not be prudent. From what i have read  i'm more positive about him for sure but still uncertain and neutral. 

 

Pick a rushing metric and there’s a good chance that Gibson performed well in it:

  • PFF rushing grade: 85.1 (No. 5 among 47 qualified RBs)
  • Missed tackles forced per rush: 0.22 (tied for No. 5)
  • Yards per carry: 4.7 (tied for No. 15)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.6 (tied for No. 33)
  • Stuff rate: 4.1% (No. 1)

The Football Team never had Gibson play more than 65% of the offense’s snaps in a game last season. In an ideal world, we see that number become the floor with the hope that fewer designed touches for McKissic will lead to less overall usage in the offense. From here Gibson can more consistently soak up the majority of the backfield’s targets in an offense that has a good chance of finishing as an above-average scoring unit.

Offensive coordinator Scott Turner served as the Panthers QB coach while his dad, Norv, ran the show during the 2018-2019 seasons. During that span, Christian McCaffrey played at least 90% of the offense’s snaps in an absurd 26 of 32 games, never dipping below 78% in a non-Week 17 game along the way.

This is Gibson’s ceiling: DC CMC, or better yet, DCMC. I’m not here to suggest Gibson is the same level talent as McCaffrey and capable of supplying similar high-end efficiency, but I also wouldn’t count that out. Ultimately, we want to chase volume, not talent, in fantasy football: Gibson has the potential to have more volume than just about anyone. " 

 

Is it really possible for this type of useage? I liked the article but his rankings at the end made me question his credability

RANKING: "Ultimately, Gibson is somebody I’ve found myself rising up the ranks as the offseason progresses. At the moment, he’s my RB13 in my “With some luck these dudes could bounce up two tiers” third tier, narrowly behind Cam Akers, Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor. At the time of this writing, I’m drinking coffee, but a switch to something with alcohol could cause a leap over Taylor due to the potential target concerns." 

 I'd take Gibson over Mixon without even knowing much about him, Taylor behind Akers AND Mixon.. i don't know man..

Here's the full article it touches on what's already been discussed here ala Alex Smith Dump offs the addition of Samuel and some o-line talk ...like i said i thought it was decent and made me believe Gibsons ADP was more appropriate than previously thought but then his rankings made me question everything and come here. 

So, whats the deal with Antonio Gibson???

 

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-will-antonio-gibson-emerge-as-dc-cmc

 

Edited by NInsko
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The sky is the limit for this dude. I think he is a lock - sans injury -  for RB1 production and the sky is the limit with him. Wouldn't be shocked if he finished as the RB1 this or next year. (I get it, he is a dark horse).

For dynasty he is my RB 8 behind: CMC, Taylor, Barkley, Kamara, Cook, Swift and Chubb
For '21 PPR he is my RB11 behind: CMC, Cook, Barkley, Kamara, Henry, Taylor, Ekeler, Chubb, Swift and Jones

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2 hours ago, thebadferret said:

The sky is the limit for this dude. I think he is a lock - sans injury -  for RB1 production and the sky is the limit with him. Wouldn't be shocked if he finished as the RB1 this or next year. (I get it, he is a dark horse).

For dynasty he is my RB 8 behind: CMC, Taylor, Barkley, Kamara, Cook, Swift and Chubb
For '21 PPR he is my RB11 behind: CMC, Cook, Barkley, Kamara, Henry, Taylor, Ekeler, Chubb, Swift and Jones

I could say the skys the limit about a bunch of players including the ones i'm currently drafting OVER him. I'm trying to see what you guys are seeing. Like i said i haven't done much reseach into him, that article provided some decent insight and a little bit of stats but left me with more questions? Why did he get so few carries in college and if he was a converted wr why did he mostly plat the 1-2 down back role?

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1 hour ago, NInsko said:

I could say the skys the limit about a bunch of players including the ones i'm currently drafting OVER him. I'm trying to see what you guys are seeing. Like i said i haven't done much reseach into him, that article provided some decent insight and a little bit of stats but left me with more questions? Why did he get so few carries in college and if he was a converted wr why did he mostly plat the 1-2 down back role?

I can't see Chubb being the RB1 while Hunt is with him for example. But you are right. it can be said about a lot of players. However this doesn't make it wrong to say about AG ;)

Regarding your third down question....maybe as a converted WR he is able to do the receivng work, but maybe he is lacking the pass protection necessary for the pros. But is is merely an uneducated guess :)

 

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20 hours ago, The G Man said:

ESPN's John Keim reports the Football Team wants Antonio Gibson to run more pass routes in 2021. 

Getting Gibson more heavily involved in the team's passing attack would be a natural progression for the second-year back. He was used mostly as a pass catcher at Memphis in 2019, recording 38 grabs for 735 yards and eight touchdowns. Gibson in his rookie season averaged 13 pass routes and 3.07 targets per game while J.D. McKissic functioned as Washington's main pass catching back (25 routes and 6.6 targets per game). McKissic thrived as Alex Smith's preferred check down option through much of the season, making Gibson a little more game script dependent than fantasy managers would have liked. Gibson, being drafted as the 15th RB off the draft board, could be a rare early-round value pick if he absorbs more opportunity as a pass catcher with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Nineteen percent of Fitzpatrick's targets over the past two seasons have gone to running backs. 

Source: ESPN.com
May 28, 2021, 11:32 AM ET

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It's easy to adapt to the NFL when your role is simple. It can be difficult when the team asks you to learn and do many things (see tight end adjustments).

Washington took this guy 66th overall, so you know they have big plans for him, but giving him a monster workload in year 1, when he wasn't used that way in college, would have been a big ask.

His body is well built to be a plus pass-protection back, but it's as or more important to be in the right position in pass protection than is it to make the block when it's there in front of you. I dunno if he had the experience to hit the ground running in that department in year 1, especially with the covid-limited offseason. And it would have been risky to ask him to learn on the job with a gimpy Alex Smith behind center.

I also don't know if a full NFL offseason will allow him to pass McKissic as Washington's prefered third down back, but he will most definitely earn more trust from his coaches. He won't be an automatic bench on third down like he was last year.

In my opinion, that RB1 finish ain't happening without a McKissic injury, but I do think he can and will be used more in the passing game, and I like his floor as a high volume rock pounder a la Nick Chubb. I will be surprised if he surpasses 70% of the snaps on the year, but stranger things have happened. Either way, I'm confident he will continue to be hyper-efficient with the snaps he is given.

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On 5/30/2021 at 2:23 AM, The G Man said:

ESPN's John Keim reports the Football Team wants Antonio Gibson to run more pass routes in 2021. 

We read these kind of reports every year during the pre-season for many many players, and in my mind, this translates as follows:

"The Football team was disappointed with his route running in 2020 and he really needs to pick it up. We're focusing on this with him, but if he doesn't get better, he's won't expand his usage in the passing game"

Am I being too cynical? BTW, I am a Gibson "owner" and believer; I just don't believe these kind of headlines.

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Not an unfair point.  This time of year every headline is basically a bullet point on a list of "what things are happening for the team this year in an idyllic situation"

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

We read these kind of reports every year during the pre-season for many many players, and in my mind, this translates as follows:

"The Football team was disappointed with his route running in 2020 and he really needs to pick it up. We're focusing on this with him, but if he doesn't get better, he's won't expand his usage in the passing game"

Am I being too cynical? BTW, I am a Gibson "owner" and believer; I just don't believe these kind of headlines.


I would usually agree but since Gibson was actually a WR in college I doubt they were disappointed in his ability to run the easier routes that RBs are usually asked to run. 
 

I think they mean they legitimately want to play Gibson on more passing situations instead of mckissic. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2021 at 5:43 AM, NInsko said:

"I'm trying to see what you guys are seeing. Like i said i haven't done much reseach into him, that article provided some decent insight and a little bit of stats but left me with more questions? Why did he get so few carries in college and if he was a converted wr why did he mostly play the 1-2 down back role?"

At Memphis Gibson wasn't the featured ball-carrier or receiver. They used him in a number of ways, more of a hybrid, including the return game. His length lends itself more so as a receiver, but watch him run it and you definitely see the RB. Coming out, it was questioned whether that system helped players transition to the pro game. That & along with just 77 touches, he was deemed extremely raw. Note his draft tracker profile, that many of his 33 carries were designed to get him to the perimeter. But Ron Rivera & Scott Turner recognized the skill set & the player, confident they'd mold. By my account, had they not drafted him in the 3rd round, Bruce Arians would've.

Them looking to involve Gibson more in the passing game is different than say, Zeke or Barkley. It's well beyond him running a wheel route or as a check down. Without them scheming him up, it may be too much to ask. But this is the same coaching staff that drafted CMC & Curtis Samuel, who they signed as a FA. They know what they're doing. That said, to me, the guy that presents a degree of hostility to Gibson's dual-threat role isn't McKissic but Samuel. So, if you consider the 2nd round too high, viewing Samuel as more of a handcuff could lead to some serious upside. One other thing to consider is should Gibson regress or not develop to their satisfaction, he'll likely assume the lead role in the return game. Your league's settings may be a consideration. Surprisingly, the 39 additional points Nyheim Hines got in the return game/ST pushed him into low RB1 territory.     

 

       

Edited by markrc99
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The Washington Post's Sam Fortier reports Washington RB Antonio Gibson is still rehabbing from the toe injury he suffered late in the 2020 season.

Gibson missed two games near the end of his impressive rookie campaign with the toe issue. Fortier said Gibson is "able to make cuts he needs to," but the toe injury is "something he'll have to monitor moving forward." Football Team head coach Ron Rivera said Wednesday that he expects a "big jump" from Gibson in 2021, which could mean an increased role in Washington's passing attack. J.D. McKissic functioned as the Football Team's primary pass catcher out of the backfield last year. Gibson's lingering toe issue will be worth monitoring in the next few months.

Jun 2, 2021, 12:11 PM ET
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4 minutes ago, The G Man said:

The Washington Post's Sam Fortier reports Washington RB Antonio Gibson is still rehabbing from the toe injury he suffered late in the 2020 season.

Gibson missed two games near the end of his impressive rookie campaign with the toe issue. Fortier said Gibson is "able to make cuts he needs to," but the toe injury is "something he'll have to monitor moving forward." Football Team head coach Ron Rivera said Wednesday that he expects a "big jump" from Gibson in 2021, which could mean an increased role in Washington's passing attack. J.D. McKissic functioned as the Football Team's primary pass catcher out of the backfield last year. Gibson's lingering toe issue will be worth monitoring in the next few months.

Jun 2, 2021, 12:11 PM ET

CMC 2.0?

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