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Antonio Gibson 2021 Outlook


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Unless you have an early draft no point in worrying about injuries for now. Obviously not great news though. 

That being said, people should be more worried about McKissic. McKissic got under 40% of the snap count zero times and out snapped Gibson 9 times. He essentialy turns Gibson into a two down back and an extremely poor mans version of Chubb. Nowhere near worth a first round pick nor an early to mid second round pick. Probably in the 22-25 range and this is assuming he is healthy and ready to go.

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3 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Unless you have an early draft no point in worrying about injuries for now. Obviously not great news though. 

That being said, people should be more worried about McKissic. McKissic got under 40% of the snap count zero times and out snapped Gibson 9 times. He essentialy turns Gibson into a two down back and an extremely poor mans version of Chubb. Nowhere near worth a first round pick nor an early to mid second round pick. Probably in the 22-25 range and this is assuming he is healthy and ready to go.

You're gambling on whether the QB change also means less work for McKissic. It might.

But they added Samuel and I'd expect them to use him plenty out of the backfield and on the GL. 

Gibson is scary even if fully healthy. The potential for very limited usage is apparent. 

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5 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

You're gambling on whether the QB change also means less work for McKissic. It might.

But they added Samuel and I'd expect them to use him plenty out of the backfield and on the GL. 

Gibson is scary even if fully healthy. The potential for very limited usage is apparent. 

I don't plan to gamble in the first few rounds.

Go for the most secure players first few rounds and gamble later. 

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9 hours ago, MingusDew said:

You're gambling on whether the QB change also means less work for McKissic. It might.

But they added Samuel and I'd expect them to use him plenty out of the backfield and on the GL. 

Gibson is scary even if fully healthy. The potential for very limited usage is apparent. 

Very limited usage of Gibson? I don’t see the potential of that at all. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

DND territory? Fading? I guess I’m the opposite. As an owner in a keeper league, I’m pretty excited about Gibson this year. 

As mentioned, I'm also an owner, but I will play Debbie Downer here.

1) He's still recovering from his turf toe. That was a bad one, it seems, and it still needs more time. I assume he'll be recovered before the season start, but I prefer my studs to have a helthy winter and zero problems throughout the pre-season. Lingering injuries in June, me no likey.
2) As said I'm wary of coach speak. In June everyone is an optimist; to me "we want him to run more pass routes" to me still sounds as "needs to improve" and "we expect him to make a big jump" sounds like "didn't do as we wanted last year". 

tenor.gif

In my mind he is still high potential, but high potential also means "hasn't proven it yet". I have some champagne in the fridge, but that'll keep until December ;)

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13 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

As mentioned, I'm also an owner, but I will play Debbie Downer here.

1) He's still recovering from his turf toe. That was a bad one, it seems, and it still needs more time. I assume he'll be recovered before the season start, but I prefer my studs to have a helthy winter and zero problems throughout the pre-season. Lingering injuries in June, me no likey.
2) As said I'm wary of coach speak. In June everyone is an optimist; to me "we want him to run more pass routes" to me still sounds as "needs to improve" and "we expect him to make a big jump" sounds like "didn't do as we wanted last year". 

tenor.gif

In my mind he is still high potential, but high potential also means "hasn't proven it yet". I have some champagne in the fridge, but that'll keep until December ;)

I don’t read “we want him to run more pass routes” that way at all. And of course he wasn’t all they wanted him to be last year. He wasn’t just learning to play RB in the NFL, he was learning to play RB. I think you’re negatives into Rivera’s words that aren’t there. They expect him to make a huge jump from year one to year two as a kid who was playing a position he rarely played in college. It would make sense for the coaches to believe that year of experience and offseason to make him a much better RB in year two. It’s a logical statement. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

I think you’re negatives into Rivera’s words that aren’t there. They expect him to make a huge jump from year one to year two as a kid who was playing a position he rarely played in college. It would make sense for the coaches to believe that year of experience and offseason to make him a much better RB in year two. It’s a logical statement. 

In my mind, every coach in spring is enthousiastic about all their players. They're all real warriors, they are going to be faster, jump higher, run deeper, be more accurate, behave less like a d!ckhead etc. Are the coaches blind? No, obviously they're not, but they are trained PR machines, and they can turn every negative into a positive.

I do the same with my team and my reports to the customer.
* we have improved the monitoring: "oh my god how did we miss that for a week?"
* we will apply additional testing: "yeah nobody tried that"
* we are strengthening the team: "we are woefully understaffed"
* we are looking to update the planning: "We missed the deadline by a mile"
Etc.

So maybe it's just me being a professional bullshit artist project manager, but I recognise an artist when I see one, and I generally try to translate such statements back to what they would really mean if I would say them ;) 

tenor.gif?itemid=20653160

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

"I don’t read “we want him to run more pass routes” that way at all. And of course he wasn’t all they wanted him to be last year. He wasn’t just learning to play RB in the NFL, he was learning to play RB. ... They expect him to make a huge jump from year one to year two as a kid who was playing a position he rarely played in college. It would make sense for the coaches to believe that year of experience and offseason to make him a much better RB in year two. ..."

Gibson's a ball-carrier, was a runner in high school. I have no idea what happened at the collegiate level, but clearly he was a major recruitment miss. The learning curve for a RB is not that of a WR & concern with respect to his development could be legit. But that seems like an all or nothing perspective. I can see them taking situational & personnel grouping matters one at a time. Once he's mastered one aspect, install more. There's also Fitzpatrick, I mean, he's been in how many systems & been playing for how long? Seems like he could help Gibson with his pre-snap reads.

Another variable that I think may be overstated is the notion that when Mckissic steps onto the field, Gibson comes off.... we're talking about a team that isn't very deep at WR. I get McKissic's production others see, but there's the undrafted guy too. Good hands, but when the placement isn't perfect, his transition from receiver to ball-carrier often isn't seamless. Used to exploit matchups v LBs or space when they're behind on the scoreboard. Could be wrong, but to me he doesn't give them anything that Gibson & Samuel can't improve upon.        

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9 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Very limited usage of Gibson? I don’t see the potential of that at all. 

Yeah the "very" qualifier probably wasn't appropriate. 

I think it's possible he's not used on passing downs and loses some GL and early down work to Samuel. He isn't locked into a bell cow role in this offense from my perspective.

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The turf toe aspect is obviously concerning, but I’m not really sure what additional realistic expectations we could have had for this guy that he didn’t meet in his rookie year.

In early drafts last year he was a developmental prospect at best - Cordarelle Patterson at worst. He was a favorite as a sleeper candidate with 70 something total touches and video game stat lines at Memphis. He was a third round back drafted into a backfield with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. The Derrius Guice situation was what it was, but the actions of the coaching staff after that to cut Peterson and thrust Gibson into a starting role speaks volumes. More importantly, when given the opportunity Gibson showed that he was capable of playing the position at the NFL level and growth as the year went on.

I can’t imagine how someone can expect that his role wouldn’t grow in year two. Maybe it’s recency bias, but I don’t recall many situations where all of the dominos fell into place for a guy as perfectly as they did for Gibson last year. Then to have that him perform up to the heightened expectations instead of clumsily disappointing was just icing on the cake.

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Does anyone know How long turf toe usually takes to heal and how easy is it to re-injure because I thought it was a minor injury for the last 28 years of my life till now.. and now Im questioning everything in my life.  

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1 hour ago, TsR1823 said:

The turf toe aspect is obviously concerning, but I’m not really sure what additional realistic expectations we could have had for this guy that he didn’t meet in his rookie year.

In early drafts last year he was a developmental prospect at best - Cordarelle Patterson at worst. He was a favorite as a sleeper candidate with 70 something total touches and video game stat lines at Memphis. He was a third round back drafted into a backfield with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. The Derrius Guice situation was what it was, but the actions of the coaching staff after that to cut Peterson and thrust Gibson into a starting role speaks volumes. More importantly, when given the opportunity Gibson showed that he was capable of playing the position at the NFL level and growth as the year went on.

I can’t imagine how someone can expect that his role wouldn’t grow in year two. Maybe it’s recency bias, but I don’t recall many situations where all of the dominos fell into place for a guy as perfectly as they did for Gibson last year. Then to have that him perform up to the heightened expectations instead of clumsily disappointing was just icing on the cake.

It's become a trend in the NFL to have a two down bruiser like player and then a smaller COP back on third down. This allows the two down back to run harder because of less touches and to also be more healthy. We see this on teams like the Browns and Colts. Last year this was clearly the case on the Redskins and with them bringing back Mckissic this will almost certainly continue. 

So the question becomes exactly how good will he be in that role? Chubb and Taylor both were top 10 RBs in half PPR and both finished top 5 from week 10+. RBs can clearly dominate in that role. Again, it keeps them more fresh allowing for more damage.

The question becomes what can we expect from Gibson in this role? I think the answer to this question actually rests in how well the Redskins will perform. A two down bruiser can dominate in games with a positive game script. If they are in grind it out games or games with the lead you can expect Gibson to be putting up 20/100/2 type performances on rushing alone. Problem is the Redskins are no Browns or Colts. Fitzpatrick is a fun QB but he is horrible for Gibson. He is turnover prone allowing for a game script to turn negative quickly and he likes to take shots and go big which isn't exactly the grind it out approach you would prefer. 

It's just not worth a top 20 pick. On paper, the team isn't exactly built to support Gibsons role as much as I would like. 

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28 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's become a trend in the NFL to have a two down bruiser like player and then a smaller COP back on third down. This allows the two down back to run harder because of less touches and to also be more healthy. We see this on teams like the Browns and Colts. Last year this was clearly the case on the Redskins and with them bringing back Mckissic this will almost certainly continue. 

So the question becomes exactly how good will he be in that role? Chubb and Taylor both were top 10 RBs in half PPR and both finished top 5 from week 10+. RBs can clearly dominate in that role. Again, it keeps them more fresh allowing for more damage.

The question becomes what can we expect from Gibson in this role? I think the answer to this question actually rests in how well the Redskins will perform. A two down bruiser can dominate in games with a positive game script. If they are in grind it out games or games with the lead you can expect Gibson to be putting up 20/100/2 type performances on rushing alone. Problem is the Redskins are no Browns or Colts. Fitzpatrick is a fun QB but he is horrible for Gibson. He is turnover prone allowing for a game script to turn negative quickly and he likes to take shots and go big which isn't exactly the grind it out approach you would prefer. 

It's just not worth a top 20 pick. On paper, the team isn't exactly built to support Gibsons role as much as I would like. 

So where we differ is our interpretation of why Gibson’s role was what it was last year. I can give you leeway for playing the odds that WFT trends with the majority of the NFL utilizing a 2 back system, but I don’t at all agree that it was a clear cut case of using a COP back because they specifically wanted to employ that system. We have seen too many cases where rookies aren’t given 3rd down work in their first year because of the difficulties of adapting to the NFL game. Add in the COVID modified offseason with a guy that has 30 something career college carries and to me this seems just as plausible, if not more that it was more a decision out of necessity.  Plus, it isn’t like they signed McKissic to a new contract. They signed him to a 2 year deal in Spring of 2020. They aren’t bringing him back, they just haven’t cut him.

It could easily go either way, I just don’t believe that WFT drafted him to fill the 2 down bruiser role.  If that’s all that they were looking for then why wouldn’t they draft guys like Zack Moss or maybe even try to trade up for AJ Dillon since those guys actually played the position in college? Those are much safer as opposed to grabbing Gibson who, again, had all of 30 something college carries.  Gibson was picked for his upside, and it would be criminal levels of  underutilization to take a guy that made his name in college by making people miss in space and making him a two down between the tackles banger. That’s never how he was used in the past and I don’t see why Riverboat Ron would start using him that way now.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

It's become a trend in the NFL to have a two down bruiser like player and then a smaller COP back on third down. This allows the two down back to run harder because of less touches and to also be more healthy. We see this on teams like the Browns and Colts. Last year this was clearly the case on the Redskins and with them bringing back Mckissic this will almost certainly continue. 

So the question becomes exactly how good will he be in that role? Chubb and Taylor both were top 10 RBs in half PPR and both finished top 5 from week 10+. RBs can clearly dominate in that role. Again, it keeps them more fresh allowing for more damage.

The question becomes what can we expect from Gibson in this role? I think the answer to this question actually rests in how well the Redskins will perform. A two down bruiser can dominate in games with a positive game script. If they are in grind it out games or games with the lead you can expect Gibson to be putting up 20/100/2 type performances on rushing alone. Problem is the Redskins are no Browns or Colts. Fitzpatrick is a fun QB but he is horrible for Gibson. He is turnover prone allowing for a game script to turn negative quickly and he likes to take shots and go big which isn't exactly the grind it out approach you would prefer. 

It's just not worth a top 20 pick. On paper, the team isn't exactly built to support Gibsons role as much as I would like. 


is it a certainty that he will be used this way? Th OC is son of Norv Turner and runs essentially the same exact offense. Norv is infamous for using 1 RB and making them monsters. That offense put out guys like this

Cowbowys 

91-93 — three of emmitt smiths 4 best years.

Redskins

1995-  terry allen 1300 rush yards 31 receptions 

1996 - terry Allen 1300 rush and 31 rec 

1997-98 terry Allen gets hurt and back up gets bell cow touches

1999 Steph Davis 1400 rush yards 23 rec

2000 Stephen Davis 1300 rush yards 33 rec

chargers

2001 - LT nuff said

miami

2002- Ricky Williams 1800 rush yards 47 rec

2003 Ricky 1300 rush yards 50 rec

oakland

2004- injuries cause several changes in starter

2005 lamaon jordan 1000 rush yards 70 catches

49ers

2006 - Frank gores 1600 yard year 61 receptions 

Chargers 

2007-2009 LT years 

2011 Ryan Mathews 1000 and 50 

Vikings 

2014- Peterson injuries causes Asiata and McKinnon timeshares 

2015 AP dominates 2nd best season of career 

2016 repeat of 2014

Panthers 

2018-19- CMC best weapon in sports 

that’s several nobodies having big years and several hall of fame level guys having career years partially due to Norv and his offense. 

 

Just cuss this guys is Norv turners kid doesn’t mean he will use a workhorse back. But if he does and he stays healthy it’s a huge year. I’d imagine this guy isn’t going to use a true workhorse like CMC gettin 98% snaps but 65% probably still means a huge year for Gibson. Just gotta keep reading the tea leaves with the coach speak and injury updates 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Washington RBs coach Randy Jordan said Antonio Gibson's improvement in year two is "like night and day."

"You can tell he's matured, got a better feel and understanding," coach Ron Rivera said of Gibson during minicamp. "Those natural instincts that you look for, the intangibles that guys that have been playing the positions their whole career naturally have. You start to see those come to light with Antonio." Jordan said that last year, Gibson would have cut upfield when running routes rather than understanding the offense and knowing where the latter must be and when. That wasn't the case at offseason workouts as Gibson reportedly understood how to set defenders up when asked to catch the ball. J.D. McKissic out-snapped Gibson 197-22 on 3rd downs last season but that margin could shrink in 2021, making the latter a tremendous option atop the second tier of running backs for fantasy.

Jun 24, 2021, 10:37 AM ET
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4 hours ago, The G Man said:

Washington RBs coach Randy Jordan said Antonio Gibson's improvement in year two is "like night and day."

"You can tell he's matured, got a better feel and understanding," coach Ron Rivera said of Gibson during minicamp. "Those natural instincts that you look for, the intangibles that guys that have been playing the positions their whole career naturally have. You start to see those come to light with Antonio." Jordan said that last year, Gibson would have cut upfield when running routes rather than understanding the offense and knowing where the latter must be and when. That wasn't the case at offseason workouts as Gibson reportedly understood how to set defenders up when asked to catch the ball. J.D. McKissic out-snapped Gibson 197-22 on 3rd downs last season but that margin could shrink in 2021, making the latter a tremendous option atop the second tier of running backs for fantasy.

Jun 24, 2021, 10:37 AM ET

So i guess this confirms the belief that he wasn’t in on 3rd Downs because he simply didn’t know the passing game very well yet and not the belief that he was a bad route runner or that he couldn’t catch or that Mckissick is a better pass catching back or whatever narratives have been pushed? 

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On 6/3/2021 at 3:06 PM, Stonej14 said:

Does anyone know How long turf toe usually takes to heal and how easy is it to re-injure because I thought it was a minor injury for the last 28 years of my life till now.. and now Im questioning everything in my life.  

As a Davonte Adams owner for the last 4 seasons I can tell you turf toe takes anywhere between a few weeks and FOREVER to heal. I'm not sure there's ever been an actual "minor" case of turf toe. "Minor" just seems to mean "we're going to keep trying to play him until he hurts it worse then he won't be the same for the rest of the season". It doesn't sound bad but it's one of those things like a hamstring injury that can just seem to linger and linger and either make a guy sit out for a bunch of weeks or just have a disappointing season. 

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