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Antonio Gibson 2021 Outlook


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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

So i guess this confirms the belief that he wasn’t in on 3rd Downs because he simply didn’t know the passing game very well yet and not the belief that he was a bad route runner or that he couldn’t catch or that Mckissick is a better pass catching back or whatever narratives have been pushed? 

I think this is actually what most people thought already. And No one said he couldn’t catch and Mckissic is a better pass catching back.

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4 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

This guys gonna disappoint some people this year. 

Ya may have already explained your opinion earlier on in this thread so sorry if ya have already but could you give some reasoning behind this opinion 

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So far people are loving to hate this guy. I don't get it. Great rookie year positive publicity this year improved team around him. What's not to like? He'll be a rb1. I'm not expecting him to be the number 1 scoring rb but expecting him to be a rb1 seems realistic.

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On 6/24/2021 at 11:11 PM, Stonej14 said:

Ya may have already explained your opinion earlier on in this thread so sorry if ya have already but could you give some reasoning behind this opinion 

Sure. I simply don’t think he’s that good as a rb and mckissicks presence makes me confident he won’t see a material increase in targets. Ironically, I think he is a good scat back since he had wr experience in college, but now he’s more of 2 down back. On that note; I wasn’t impressed with him as a rookie. I think people didnt watch a lot of skins games and saw his stats. What they don’t see is that a majority of his stats came from plays his OL made, not plays he made. Redksins have a good D so I’m sure they’ll be in a lot of games and Gibson will get carries, I just don’t draft rbs I don’t think are good.
 

There’s also the foot concern. 

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So he was a good scat back cause college wr experience but now he's only a 2 down back? He had 36 receptions last year. Let's say he only gets 1 more a game that's over 50 now. Jd had games where he had 9 and 11 a game. So just saying AG gets 1 more of those a game is reasonable for growth they are preaching.

And only got yards cause the line opened holes? That's exactly how a running game works. If it was McCaffrey zeke Henry Barkley gibson vs 11 guys trying to tackle him without help. How many yards would you expect them to get?

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2 hours ago, hard1 said:

So he was a good scat back cause college wr experience but now he's only a 2 down back?

 

According to the Washington coaches- not me. I’m saying I think he could be a 3 down back or a scat back but wasn’t used like it. Go back and look at his 2020 thread. Everyone projected all these targets and less goal line work and pretty much the opposite happened.

He had 36 receptions last year. Let's say he only gets 1 more a game that's over 50 now. Jd had games where he had 9 and 11 a game. So just saying AG gets 1 more of those a game is reasonable for growth they are preaching.

sure- 50 catches would be good. If that happens maybe I’ll draft him next year 

 

Quote

And only got yards cause the line opened holes? That's exactly how a running game works. If it was McCaffrey zeke Henry Barkley gibson vs 11 guys trying to tackle him without help. How many yards would you expect them to get?

yeah, like why do you even have him on a list with those guys? People act like he’s a top 10 rb irl. I don’t see that at all. He was a rookie so probably improves, but as a rookie, he wasn’t good so I won’t be drafting him. 

 

Not sure if you actually wanted responses as you didn’t quote me, but you were clearly talking to me so I responded anyways 

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15 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Not sure if you actually wanted responses as you didn’t quote me, but you were clearly talking to me so I responded anyways 

Yeah I did want a response. But you didn't really say anything back. You may draft him next year? Cool. 

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Interesting article I found it’s a good read if you have time. I didn’t realize how up and coming Washington’s o-line is. They may not be top 3 but if they are a top 10 line with that defense Gibson is going to eat.

 

I have pick #2 this year so I won’t get him. But if there was 1 RB outside of the consensus, to have a top 3 breakout year, my money would be on Gibson over Akers Chubb etc.

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On 6/26/2021 at 11:33 AM, Panthers8912 said:

Not sure if you actually wanted responses as you didn’t quote me, but you were clearly talking to me so I responded anyways 

You strike me as someone that made up your mind early in the season and isn’t going to change it easily.

The toe injury is slightly concerning. I don’t know how I feel about grabbing him in redraft unless the price is right, but I’m just going to go out on a limb and say that Ron Rivera and his staff apparently saw SOMETHING they really liked in Gibson if they were willing to cut Adrian Peterson and roll with a rookie with ~30 career college carries as the lead back. In addition to that, they didn’t go out and add any competition through the draft or free agency.

There are guys that play running back their entire careers from high school to the NFL that cant grasp the intricacies of NFL passing offenses in their rookie year. Are we making the argument that the guy that had to learn how to play running back in his rookie NFL season has already reached his ceiling in the passing game because he didn’t do it in year one and JD McKissick is too good?

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4 hours ago, TsR1823 said:

You strike me as someone that made up your mind early in the season and isn’t going to change it easily.

The toe injury is slightly concerning. I don’t know how I feel about grabbing him in redraft unless the price is right, but I’m just going to go out on a limb and say that Ron Rivera and his staff apparently saw SOMETHING they really liked in Gibson if they were willing to cut Adrian Peterson and roll with a rookie with ~30 career college carries as the lead back. In addition to that, they didn’t go out and add any competition through the draft or free agency.

There are guys that play running back their entire careers from high school to the NFL that cant grasp the intricacies of NFL passing offenses in their rookie year. Are we making the argument that the guy that had to learn how to play running back in his rookie NFL season has already reached his ceiling in the passing game because he didn’t do it in year one and JD McKissick is too good?

Yup, that’s me. I’m just too stubborn to see how good Gibson is. That’s why I said I’m wrong about him this year I’ll draft him next year. Bc I’m just that set in my ways. Makes total sense. And omg, they cut 50 year old Adrian Peterson? Dam that really says a lot. Choosing to develop a young player over the ancient star. Detroit’s coaches are the only ones who wouldntve made that decision 

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Just now getting back into FF as I always do July 1st, and I thought for sure he'd be a consensus mid-late 1st rounder this year. I did own him last year so I am biased, but if he falls to me early 2nd I can't see myself not taking him. Really surprised to see guys like Cam Akers and Joe MIxon ahead of him

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1 hour ago, WVFalcon said:

Just now getting back into FF as I always do July 1st, and I thought for sure he'd be a consensus mid-late 1st rounder this year. I did own him last year so I am biased, but if he falls to me early 2nd I can't see myself not taking him. Really surprised to see guys like Cam Akers and Joe MIxon ahead of him

This is what I was saying. Mixon and Akers ahead of him. Hes proven he can do it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm a big WFT fan. I don't know quite what to make of him as a player or human being just yet. He's quiet and does his job, so he gets an A so far. He should be the number one back here and catch more passes than last year with similar rushing yards and TDS. I think they're all in on him as an every down back but Samuel and Mckissick will steal some of his dump off catch opportunities. I also worry about him holding a heavier workload and getting hurt, not sure if he's up for regular 20+ carries yet

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5 minutes ago, zorndogs said:

I'm a big WFT fan. I don't know quite what to make of him as a player or human being just yet. He's quiet and does his job, so he gets an A so far. He should be the number one back here and catch more passes than last year with similar rushing yards and TDS. I think they're all in on him as an every down back but Samuel and Mckissick will steal some of his dump off catch opportunities. I also worry about him holding a heavier workload and getting hurt, not sure if he's up for regular 20+ carries yet

I don't expect anything close to 20 carries a game. I'd be happy with 240 carries for the season and 50ish receptions. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

I don't expect anything close to 20 carries a game. I'd be happy with 240 carries for the season and 50ish receptions. 

Lots to contemplate here. Fitzmagic tends to look for the BABABOOM throws to guys like Terry and Cam Sims. How will guys like Samuel and Humphries effect the underneath dump off passing though, not to mention Mckissick. Where does Gibson fit in there? I want them to throw to Gibson more, and I think they will try, but I'd take the UNDER on 50 catches. I see Gibson right now as getting average 17 rush carries a game and 5 pass attempts. How that will add up is largely up to the rebuilt O line and the power of Fitzmagic.

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1 minute ago, zorndogs said:

Lots to contemplate here. Fitzmagic tends to look for the BABABOOM throws to guys like Terry and Cam Sims. How will guys like Samuel and Humphries effect the underneath dump off passing though, not to mention Mckissick. Where does Gibson fit in there? I want them to throw to Gibson more, and I think they will try, but I'd take the UNDER on 50 catches. I see Gibson right now as getting average 17 rush carries a game and 5 pass attempts. How that will add up is largely up to the rebuilt O line and the power of Fitzmagic.

The under is probably the better bet, but I'm banking on the fact that he was more WR than RB in college. I think a large part of Smooches' role last year was due to the rawness of Gibson in pass pro. Will he be better at that in 2021? If he is, he could find himself on the field in more passing situations and going out for more routes. McKissic is not a better player than Gibson, imho, but was a better pro last year. As Gibson learns the RB position in its fullness, I expect him to take more and more snaps away from McKissic. 

But I fully admit it's conjecture until we actually see it on the field, and none of us really knows at this point how Gibson will be affected by Fitzy just yet. 

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19 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

The under is probably the better bet, but I'm banking on the fact that he was more WR than RB in college. I think a large part of Smooches' role last year was due to the rawness of Gibson in pass pro. Will he be better at that in 2021? If he is, he could find himself on the field in more passing situations and going out for more routes. McKissic is not a better player than Gibson, imho, but was a better pro last year. As Gibson learns the RB position in its fullness, I expect him to take more and more snaps away from McKissic. 

But I fully admit it's conjecture until we actually see it on the field, and none of us really knows at this point how Gibson will be affected by Fitzy just yet. 

The fact is any opinion about anybody on this O has to run through the Fitzmagicscope. I think Fitz has the best D in the NFL now and is primed for his best year ever.  How he fares will influence every fantasy score on this team. I think this new O line is an upgrade. None of this is confirmed though. It's just my heavily educated opinion. Everything is hinging on Fitz, and trying to predict Fitzmagic is a fools errand. Fitzmagic is not a conjurer of cheap tricks, he should make this a decent O given his support from the D, but we shall see. Judging Fitz correctly is the key to drafting anybody from this team, but it is a tough skill to attain

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42 minutes ago, zorndogs said:

Lots to contemplate here. Fitzmagic tends to look for the BABABOOM throws to guys like Terry and Cam Sims. How will guys like Samuel and Humphries effect the underneath dump off passing though, not to mention Mckissick. Where does Gibson fit in there? I want them to throw to Gibson more, and I think they will try, but I'd take the UNDER on 50 catches. I see Gibson right now as getting average 17 rush carries a game and 5 pass attempts. How that will add up is largely up to the rebuilt O line and the power of Fitzmagic.

For the most part I agree with you that fitz looks to hit the WRs mostly but he peppers the RBs pretty liberally too. In Buffalo he fed feed Jackson and CJ spiller with 39 catches a piece in one season, spiller had 47 the next year as Jackson fell off a bit. Then for the jets he fed Powell with 47 catches and ivory with 30. The next year Powell had 58 and Matt forte had 30. Then in Miami he fed a total of 5 RBs with 84 total catches drake, gaskin, laird, etc etc 

Also I think offensive scheme has something to do with it. When fitz played in buffalo and NY he had chan gaily as OC who isn’t really known for producing stat stuffing RBs. The OC in Washington is the son of Norv turner who only produces mega producers at RB and obviously runs the same scheme. 
 

Talent level also has something to do with it I think this kid could be the most talented RB fitz has got to play with and will love to feed him the ball. Cam newton didn’t check down many passes until he got CMC... and norv Turner this could be a CMC 2018 season. 

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Norv and his son are a lil lotta bit different as coaches. I just think from what I've heard Samuel and Humphries are getting some underneath plays designed for them. With Mckissick hanging around as well, we need to see where Fitz goes to when he needs to dump off. I'm a huge fan of the team and I cant call it yet, but Fitz and Samuel and Humphries and Mckissick all hold weight determining the value of Gibson in PPR. I think theyll try to get him the ball underneath, but lots of other people can do that too, tough to count on it right now

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2 minutes ago, RonnieRonaldo said:

McKissic not going away, but in the NFL I gotta bet on talent, and for that, I like Gibby. I think he's going to chew into McKissics passing role more this year, with the same early down and goal line role he had last year.  

Nobody loves Mckissick, his role will diminish. But what about Humphries and Samuel? Good underneath runners who Rivera and Turner seem to like and be scripting for. Theres even talk of making Samuel into a pass catching RB flanker type on some plays. Preseason should give a better idea but I don't see over 40 catches for Gibson if Fitz plays most of the season

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