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Madison Bumgarner 2021 Outlook


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Former perennial top 20 pick is only 31!   He’s never been quite the same since his accident, but he has shown that he can still be effective post accident.  His FB has never been a high 90s type, even at his best, but last year he had really decreased velocity and got destroyed.   Also had some back issues all year and got a lot better when he returned.   If the FB velocity is higher in ST and throughout the season, is he someone that could help a fantasy team? obviously not to his ace days, but his 2018 and 2019 post injury seasons would be very useful or toughly 9k/9 with a mid  to high 3s ERa and a useful whip.  Is he ignored because he went from sp1 to sp7 and just completely dismissed ?  
I know it’s always wrong to pay for a  “name”....but there is absolutely no payment here.   His awful season last year did have some Possibly fixable things to it.  Could he be an sp3/4 for free?  Or is he a pitching version of Pujols and miggy?  Thoughts?

Edited by Cesare13
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His fastball was sitting 93 MPH today. He looks absolutely incredible like prime Bumgarner right now. Still only 31, I am buying all the way back in. Over the past month: 0.90 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 34 

According to fangraphs, his fastball velocity last night was in line with his velocity when he was in his prime. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/madison-bumgarner/5524/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&a

That was his first bad start in over a month and it was at Coors field.

1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

Former perennial top 20 pick is only 31!   He’s never been quite the same since his accident, but he has shown that he can still be effective post accident.  His FB has never been a high 90s type, even at his best, but last year he had really decreased velocity and got destroyed.   Also had some back issues all year and got a lot better when he returned.   If the FB velocity is higher in ST and throughout the season, is he someone that could help a fantasy team? obviously not to his ace days, but his 2018 and 2019 post injury seasons would be very useful or toughly 9k/9 with a mid  to high 3s ERa and a useful whip.  Is he ignored because he went from sp1 to sp7 and just completely dismissed ?  
I know it’s always wrong to pay for a  “name”....but there is absolutely no payment here.   His awful season last year did have some Possibly fixable things to it.  Could he be an sp3/4 for free?  Or is he a pitching version of Pujols and miggy?  Thoughts?

Feels like the guy you avoid until you hear positive reports in spring.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Feels like the guy you avoid until you hear positive reports in spring.

Would need to hear and see massive tangible improvements to have any interest. Maybe he can reinvent himself as a low strikeout pitcher with some success (CC Sabathia?) but even if that happens the fantasy outlook is pretty low. You can go for higher upside plays even as late as Bumgarner is being drafted.

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Bumgarner under 90mph doesn’t interest me but when he’s averaging 91 I’ll take notice. Will it last? I’m not sure, but I’ll stick around for one start facing the road Rockies next weekend.

 

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24 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

So...... is he good again? I’m going to drop dumb a** Corbin and keep Mr. Bum Bum around.

I was hoping for someone to bump this thread, cause I am wondering the same thing. He's throwing a little bit harder now.

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16 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

I was hoping for someone to bump this thread, cause I am wondering the same thing. He's throwing a little bit harder now.

Yep. If he was still at 88 with his fastball I would be fine dropping him. But I’d like to continue to see what happens if he’s throwing 91. Aside from last years fake Covid year, he hasn’t had an ERA over 4 in a very long time. I think he could go under 4 again. Why not? He’s Mad Bum. 

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At Miami next week and then a two-start week the following week vs Miami and vs Washington. Those matchups will be more of a test as Miami is 5th in OPS against lefties while Washington is 2nd. As long as this velo holds, I’m holding.

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7 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yep. If he was still at 88 with his fastball I would be fine dropping him. But I’d like to continue to see what happens if he’s throwing 91. Aside from last years fake Covid year, he hasn’t had an ERA over 4 in a very long time. I think he could go under 4 again. Why not? He’s Mad Bum. 

Correction you stupid ****... aside from the Covid year, he hasn’t had an ERA of 4 or more, ever.

im excited.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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Apart from @ATL those are some of the best matchups you could hope for - including tonight versus the Miami Marlins without Chisholm or Marte.  Maybe a good time to explore sell-high opportunities?

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He looks fantastic right now. The fastball velocity being 91-92 makes all the difference. His cutter looks great and the command has always been good. Bumgarner looks back, great for baseball fans. 

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32 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Apart from @ATL those are some of the best matchups you could hope for - including tonight versus the Miami Marlins without Chisholm or Marte.  Maybe a good time to explore sell-high opportunities?

Sell high sure. But I doubt he sells for that much. I kind of just want to ride the wave. The way he looks right now I don’t see a reason he can’t produce a mid 3 ERA year with a good Whip. 

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1 minute ago, hangin n wangin said:

Sell high sure. But I doubt he sells for that much. I kind of just want to ride the wave. The way he looks right now I don’t see a reason he can’t produce a mid 3 ERA year with a good Whip. 

Sure - just saying someone might not be paying attention to his schedule and think he’s rediscovered his old form.

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20 hours ago, BMcP said:

Sure - just saying someone might not be paying attention to his schedule and think he’s rediscovered his old form.

At least partially true.  His days of being one of the best in baseball are likely over, but if he can keep his velocity up, there's no reason why he can't be a pretty good pitcher the rest of the season.  His velocity over the course of this run is at least as important as the matchups.

It would be odd for it to have taken this long, but maybe he made some sort of an adjustment to get his velocity back?  I dunno, but I'm not inclined to say this is just a product of a nice schedule.

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Posted (edited)

Yea, I'm kind of in the middle. In no way am I saying this is prime big swingin' dick Mad Bum. But the velocity is back up to 92 and that's friggin' important. 

Like I mentioned earlier, I don't think someone would offer too much in a trade just to acquire him, unless they really do think Mr. big hog Mad Bum is back. But I doubt many people think that. 

But even if he could be pretty close to his career numbers over the course of this year, that would be great. The dude has literally never had an ERA over 4 aside from the COVID season. I'd like to see how this plays out.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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How's the analytics looking like? I see his groundball percentage is lower than his good years. I would like to see the last 4 starts and how that looks. I like the velocity being up to normal though. 

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