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6-man Rotations. How to adjust SP projections?


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The Orioles are considering going with a 6-man rotation and teams like the Mariners, Reds, Angels and Tigers are thinking of going the same way.

I'm sure more fantasy relevant clubs will end up using 6-man rotations, so the question is: How do you plan (if so) to adjust projections for SPs on those clubs?

A 15% slash too harsh?

 

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In points leagues this is a huge factor as two-start weeks will be almost non-existent. This and the fact that many young pitchers are going to get extra rest. I think older pitchers will likely be less limited and younger staffs like the Mariners and Tigers will be totally devalued in points and some root leagues with weekly lineups. I believe this is the year to lean on older horses, especially on teams that have 5-man rotations. Everyone else may be drastically devalued. I also see the guys returning from TJS as sneaky assets to close out the season strong when young pitchers are getting rested and shut down. 

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Yes, huge in points leagues.

The Reds going to a 6-man rotation could mean about 25+ IP less for guys like Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, a big impact that I haven't seen adjusted yet in their projections.

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Are relievers going to be limited too?  If a top end, fully healthy, no IL stint starter is going 180 max......could it be prudent to subsidize that with non closer top end releivers where 2 of them would roughly equal one elite starter?   Obviously not perfect (wins, qs) and league dependant, buy any thoughts on doing a marmol type strategy even in roto as relievers migjt have more volume value?

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On 2/17/2021 at 11:02 AM, 19cbb said:

The Orioles are considering going with a 6-man rotation and teams like the Mariners, Reds, Angels and Tigers are thinking of going the same way.

I'm sure more fantasy relevant clubs will end up using 6-man rotations, so the question is: How do you plan (if so) to adjust projections for SPs on those clubs?

A 15% slash too harsh?

 

 I don't really project many pitchers above 150-170 anyway.  Just get good guys who you project to be starters and it will work itself out.  I think adjusting projections on 6 man rotation news doesn't make too much sense to me personally. It's just noise.  Teams let their best starters pitch as many innings as they can within reason for that player

 

It's hard enough to keep 5 starters healthy that are pitching well for a season, let alone 6. The Orioles don't have 6 good starters, let alone backups for when they start getting hurt or are very bad.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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6 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

It's hard enough to keep 5 starters healthy that are pitching well for a season, let alone 6. The Orioles don't have 6 good starters, let alone backups for when they start getting hurt or are very bad.

I don't think this will hold a lot of teams back from either employing a full 6 man rotation or throwing in bullpen games here and there. I agree adjusting projections for 6 man rotation is hard and needs to be team specific, but I do think teams will certainly limit their starts one way or another, either via less innings or less starts. As you mention, most pitchers should expect 170 innings, so the pitchers who derive some value based on quantity will be hard to trust to go back to that in 2021, especially if they are on the young side. That being said, there aren't many of these guys out there. Maybe you can look at Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, both pitched 200+ in 2019, I'd be shocked if they reached that in 2021.

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30 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

I don't think this will hold a lot of teams back from either employing a full 6 man rotation or throwing in bullpen games here and there. I agree adjusting projections for 6 man rotation is hard and needs to be team specific, but I do think teams will certainly limit their starts one way or another, either via less innings or less starts. As you mention, most pitchers should expect 170 innings, so the pitchers who derive some value based on quantity will be hard to trust to go back to that in 2021, especially if they are on the young side. That being said, there aren't many of these guys out there. Maybe you can look at Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, both pitched 200+ in 2019, I'd be shocked if they reached that in 2021.

I mean Lynn is certainly one of the guys I'm projecting for some of the most innings. Same with Minor. If they are healthy they are pitching a lot of innings. There's less of a need to baby the old guys, plus I'm not sure they have competition for starts.  I'm not really someone who chases innings, I chase good pitchers projected to start, it usually works itself out. I care more about guys being able to go 3 times through the order than i do if there's a 6 man rotation.  How many 6 man rotations have we seen in baseball that last for even half a season? I think I'm at 0 since I've played fantasy.

Who are the good pitchers on these 6 man rotation teams that anyone is worried about? Sonny Gray? Marco Gonzales? I dunno, I'd project them at 170 innings, could get more.  

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Who are the good pitchers on these 6 man rotation teams that anyone is worried about? Sonny Gray? Marco Gonzales? I dunno, I'd project them at 170 innings, could get more.  

The big one would be the Padres. Could easily see them utilize a 6 man rotation and there have been rumors it could happen at least for the first few weeks during the season.

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Yeah I’m in a Points league. Definitely looking to add one of the consensus top 10 starters and plan and targeting guys like Lynn, Greinke, Bundy, Marquez and Gausman later on.

Edited by Cheppy
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3 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

With a potential 6-man rotation and/or pitching limit, does this increase or decrease the value of pitchers over batters?

Overall I think it definitely decreases the value of pitchers, at least in H2H points leagues. However it also increases the value of the pitchers that are still in 5 man rotations. You can gain a huge advantage if you target and load up on those guys this year. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Season is getting closer, are any teams actually doing this?

Angels and Mariners are the only ones that I know about currently...the rest is speculative and tough to figure with all the April off-days, etc.

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