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Cavan Biggio 2021 Outlook


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4 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

pretty huge regression candidate with a deadened ball and weak statcast profile. Near bottom of the league in ev, hard hit, barrles, xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cavan-biggio-624415?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

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If stats are any indicator, Biggio will be a BUST. 

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7 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

What I don't understand is why he isn't leading off. Yes, Springer is the better player overall but their skill sets don't make sense in that order assuming they end up 1-2 in the order, which I believe they will. They have similar on base, but Springer's avg is quite a bit higher. When you're hitting leadoff and presumably have less men on base throughout the course of the year it doesn't matter if you're getting on via a walk or a hit, or at least not as much as it does for spots in the lineup that you expect to drive in runs. If you have two guys with similar OBP's I want the guy that gets to that OBP by putting more balls in play to be at the plate when there's runners on. I'm far from a baseball manager, so maybe I'm missing something but that seems the logical route to me. 

Couldn't agree more. I don't understand using Springer as a leadoff. My preference would be they give Biggio at least a couple of weeks at leadoff and see what happens. He knows how to get on base. 

I couldn't tell you the number of times I've posted useless stuff like this while management does what they do. There is very little logic in play here - that I'm clever enough to pick up on anyway.

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“The one thing about our lineup is that you could do different lineups, but I know for sure Springer’s comfortable leading off and Semien had hit second in the past, but it could change any day, I’m not going to say that’s going to be our lineup all the time,” said Montoya.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Springer going down (again) will buy him some time to get figured out...

But it looks like Klaw was right (and there has been a big enough career sample) that he really struggles with even moderate fastball velocity, which is a very real problem with today's game. I still think he can be useful for fantasy, given his other tools. But IF/when this lineup gets healthy he is gonna be at or near the very bottom of it and may even get to be only a part-time player, unless of course he makes adjustments to how he's being pitched...he certainly seems to have the plate disincline to hunt what he likes, at least.

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Springer going down (again) will buy him some time to get figured out...

But it looks like Klaw was right (and there has been a big enough career sample) that he really struggles with even moderate fastball velocity, which is a very real problem with today's game. I still think he can be useful for fantasy, given his other tools. But IF/when this lineup gets healthy he is gonna be at or near the very bottom of it and may even get to be only a part-time player, unless of course he makes adjustments to how he's being pitched...he certainly seems to have the plate disincline to hunt what he likes, at least.

Most people saying this I would call ridiculous, but you're no slouch in your analysis. Something I'll be watching for sure now, was not aware of this. I'd think adjusting to high velo would be one of the easier things to do though, right? Less worrisome than say someone who flails away at breaking balls. 

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1 hour ago, street sharks said:

So this guy is already down batting in the lower half and springer hasn't even returned yet, huh

If your batting ave is .125 ,.264 obp, ( suppose to be his specialty)  .313 slg .576 op, then your lucky your even in the line up at all. He already got a seat sunday.  Once Springer is back he will be bench warming every other day.

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13 hours ago, mks said:

If your batting ave is .125 ,.264 obp, ( suppose to be his specialty)  .313 slg .576 op, then your lucky your even in the line up at all. He already got a seat sunday.  Once Springer is back he will be bench warming every other day.

To be fair his avg is the cause of all of those numbers being low. A pathetic start for sure, but he's still taking walks and there's no way to have a good OBP with a .125 avg(same with OPS/SLG). It's so early that if he hits .500ish over his next four games, he's back at his usual avg and the other numbers follow suit. I'm hoping he just listened too much to the talk that he wasn't swinging enough, as his swing% on stuff outside the zone is almost double where he usually sits. My only real concern is @ST. STEVEN's comment about him struggling against velocity, but I'm betting on his elite eye at the plate.  

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15 hours ago, mks said:

If your batting ave is .125 ,.264 obp, ( suppose to be his specialty)  .313 slg .576 op, then your lucky your even in the line up at all. He already got a seat sunday.  Once Springer is back he will be bench warming every other day.

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According to statcast, Biggio's current garbage production is actually outperforming the quality of the balls he's actually put into play...

He has a .124 xBA LOL. Sometimes it's a good idea to sell a player low, I wouldn't want to be bagholding this.

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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

According to statcast, Biggio's current garbage production is actually outperforming the quality of the balls he's actually put into play...

He has a .124 xBA LOL. Sometimes it's a good idea to sell a player low, I wouldn't want to be bagholding this.

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Yeah, I've seen a lot of Jays games this year and this about sums it up. Shockingly, he really does look worse than his putrid stat line.  

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His biggest issue right now seems to be swinging too much at balls outside the zone, resulting in a slight increase overall K% and SWSTR%.

His BABIP is a paltry .179 a good .130pts off from his baseline established so far.

While he isn't smashing the ball per say he is making far less weak contact this year.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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Another interesting tidbit about Biggio is his exit velo is up and highest it's been in the bigs and he hasn't even been barreling up anything yet...

Sitting at 89.9 1mph faster than his great 2019 and 2 mph faster than 2020

Get that approach squared away and let's see what happens.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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