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Jalen Hurts 2021 Outlook


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Bye Bye Wentz!  Hello Jalen!

It was inevitable that Wentz would be out, and it's official today.

Hurts is an exciting fantasy prospect - he was QB3 in his three full games as a rookie.  The rushing obviously helps in fantasy.  Could he be the next Kyler?  Would the Eagles be idiotic enough to draft a QB at #6?  They couldn't possibly do that and have yet another QB controversy in their hands, right?

I'm excited to own this guy as a keeper, but QBs are so deep.  In 1 QB leagues, I'm not even sure if he's a QB1.  

Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Murray, Rodgers, Wilson, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, Burrow, Brady, Tannehill.  That's 12 in some order.  I could maybe see putting Hurts in at QB9 over Herbert, although Herbert is a better thrower.  Burrow has the injury.  Brady will still have doubters.  And Tannehill is, well Tannehill.

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You're thinking of complement. Gohawks was saying the backup needs to applaud and cheer on the starter.

This is why I’m a believer in Hurts. His work ethic is one of the qualities that always gets brought up.

I concur. New coach and likely brand new offensive scheme. They want to see what they have in Hurts with a full offseason. Team is not ready to contend and will be retooling the roster, if not full re

Would be a desperation QB2 for me unless/until the Eagles get him some weapons, the WRs currently on roster look like some of the worst in the league.  Unless they both take huge steps, neither Reagor nor Ward seem at very best like WR2s and would probably be at best WR3s on other teams.  Da Iggles probably need to draft Ja'Marr Chase and IMHO need to double-dip at WR and get someone like Trevon Grimes if he falls into the late 3rd round or lower.  

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 Very exciting indeed - even if Hurts and the surrounding offensive talent along the line and skill positions don’t improve whatsoever, if he just played at the same level as he did in his first three full games, he’s easily a top-10 option - with an outside chance at a top-5 finish.

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The more QB's we have starting that produce rushing points, the better, for fantasy's sake and entertainment value.    I do worry about his accuracy, but I think I'll get a share.  I don't see him cracking the top 6 or 7 QB's yet, and most of my leagues are full of faders so he should linger a bit for my liking

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1 minute ago, Joe Mama said:

We won't know what Eagles really think of him until the draft. I think it's 50/50 they take a QB at 6.

As do I. 

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I don't think the Eagles will draft a QB (at #6). I think they really like Hurts and believe he is franchise QB material, otherwise why draft him and piss off Wentz?

Edited by beotos
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3 hours ago, beotos said:

I don't think the Eagles will draft a QB (at #6). I think they really like Hurts and believe he is franchise QB material, otherwise why draft him and piss off Wentz?

I concur. New coach and likely brand new offensive scheme. They want to see what they have in Hurts with a full offseason. Team is not ready to contend and will be retooling the roster, if not full rebuild if the wheels really come off next season. Salary cap going down and they are eating Wentz's dead cap money. But with Hurts being a running QB it increases the chance he gets injured so they will likely draft a QB, just not at 1.06. I can see them bringing in a middling vet QB too. Strong hold on Hurts for now.

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On 2/25/2021 at 1:14 PM, pikerbkb said:

I concur. New coach and likely brand new offensive scheme. They want to see what they have in Hurts with a full offseason. Team is not ready to contend and will be retooling the roster, if not full rebuild if the wheels really come off next season. Salary cap going down and they are eating Wentz's dead cap money. But with Hurts being a running QB it increases the chance he gets injured so they will likely draft a QB, just not at 1.06. I can see them bringing in a middling vet QB too. Strong hold on Hurts for now.

Agreed - Philly drafts a QB but likely waits until Day 3 or so of the draft.

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On 2/25/2021 at 9:48 AM, beotos said:

I don't think the Eagles will draft a QB (at #6). I think they really like Hurts and believe he is franchise QB material, otherwise why draft him and piss off Wentz?

Because of the arrogance of Roseman and thinking Philly is a QB factory and can increase their value and net higher draft picks after a few years in their system, similar to how Brady’s backups were viewed in value.

Now they have to rely on Hurts as their #1, which wasn’t the original plan. I think if they can truly move up and get a QB they fall in love with they will do so. And then make it a competition. More likely though is Hurts gets a year to prove he can play.

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Hurts has wheels which make him a valuable fantasy commodity at the QB position and he does throw some decent passes but he will have trouble getting past his 1st or 2nd read before his legs cause him to take off and run. 
 

he has pretty good touch on his passes but his release is not he fastest and so when he has to make tight window throws where he needs more velocity with touch he gets a bit less accurate. His passes also have a tendency to float a little, not crisp, zip passes like you see from gunslingers like Rodgers, Maholmes, Baker, guys with tremendous trust in their arm strength and accuracy. 
 

end result I think the eagles have a starting QB who can win 10 games and probably make the playoffs but I think Huts would struggle against the defenses that clog his running lanes and force him to throw into tighter windows. For this reason I do see the Eagles adding a more pure passing QB prospect, at 6 I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see the Eagles take Mac Jones and have he and Hurts battle in true competition for the starting role. Jones would represent the opposite of Hurts, tall, gunslinger, accurate, not terribly mobile.

 

I find it unlikely that phily goes into the season with only Hurts Sudfeld as their QBs. Drafting one at 6 to provide competition is one route. Adding a vet like Andy Dalton would be another option.

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It just doesn't make sense to me to have two young potential franchise QBs battle it out (ironic because this is sort of what they did to Wentz). If you take mac jones who I do like and he wins the competition then Hurts goes to the bench for presumably 2-3 years because you have to give mac jones and honest chance at success right? Like young rookie potential franchise QBs need at least 2-3 years of assessment before determining if they can cut it or not. Meanwhile Hurts is wasted on the bench.

IMO it makes more sense for the Eagles to take a late round QB like maybe Newman, where the pecking order is clear and players can be given an honest opportunity.

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41 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Hurts has wheels which make him a valuable fantasy commodity at the QB position and he does throw some decent passes but he will have trouble getting past his 1st or 2nd read before his legs cause him to take off and run. 
 

he has pretty good touch on his passes but his release is not he fastest and so when he has to make tight window throws where he needs more velocity with touch he gets a bit less accurate. His passes also have a tendency to float a little, not crisp, zip passes like you see from gunslingers like Rodgers, Maholmes, Baker, guys with tremendous trust in their arm strength and accuracy. 
 

end result I think the eagles have a starting QB who can win 10 games and probably make the playoffs but I think Huts would struggle against the defenses that clog his running lanes and force him to throw into tighter windows. For this reason I do see the Eagles adding a more pure passing QB prospect, at 6 I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see the Eagles take Mac Jones and have he and Hurts battle in true competition for the starting role. Jones would represent the opposite of Hurts, tall, gunslinger, accurate, not terribly mobile.

 

I find it unlikely that phily goes into the season with only Hurts Sudfeld as their QBs. Drafting one at 6 to provide competition is one route. Adding a vet like Andy Dalton would be another option.

I’d be worried putting an immobile QB behind that line. That is what Wentz was. He got harassed. I don’t see, given their cap situation, how they can address o line with a free agent/s. Sewell makes a lot of sense to invest in. He could step in day 1 and shuffle the line to bolster the unit. Then you give Hurts a year. If he isn’t the answer then the extra first out of Wentz gives them ammo to draft or trade for something else next year. Having Sewell for five years on a rookie contract would go along ways into rebuild/recovery. 

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16 minutes ago, beotos said:

It just doesn't make sense to me to have two young potential franchise QBs battle it out (ironic because this is sort of what they did to Wentz). If you take mac jones who I do like and he wins the competition then Hurts goes to the bench for presumably 2-3 years because you have to give mac jones and honest chance at success right? Like young rookie potential franchise QBs need at least 2-3 years of assessment before determining if they can cut it or not. Meanwhile Hurts is wasted on the bench.

IMO it makes more sense for the Eagles to take a late round QB like maybe Newman, where the pecking order is clear and players can be given an honest opportunity.

Sometimes it doesn’t take long to determine if a young QB doesn’t have it. I’d say we have seen enough of Daniel Jones, Darnold, and we saw how quickly Rosen flamed out. Plenty of teams also fall into the trap of giving their young QB 3-4 seasons and passing on other legitimately better prospects. Teams would be better served drafting a better prospect and hoping that one hits rather than hold out hope in the guy that still hasn’t shown it within 2-3 seasons.

I’m an Eagles fan and don’t view Hurts as a long term prospect. He is good for fantasy short term, but I’d rather the Eagles purpose a legitimate prospect of one falls into their lap or it doesn’t cost a ton to move up.

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3 hours ago, beotos said:

It just doesn't make sense to me to have two young potential franchise QBs battle it out (ironic because this is sort of what they did to Wentz). If you take mac jones who I do like and he wins the competition then Hurts goes to the bench for presumably 2-3 years because you have to give mac jones and honest chance at success right? Like young rookie potential franchise QBs need at least 2-3 years of assessment before determining if they can cut it or not. Meanwhile Hurts is wasted on the bench.

IMO it makes more sense for the Eagles to take a late round QB like maybe Newman, where the pecking order is clear and players can be given an honest opportunity.


I hear ya and most of what you say makes sense but I think Newman would just be a less talented Jalen Hurts.

 

I try and figure out what Howie Roseman is thinking. He did draft Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round last year but that doesn’t necessarily mean he views him as a franchise QB. The eagles didn’t go into last season thinking Carson Wentz would be one of the worst QBs in the NFL. They thought Wentz had MVP level talent but had been injured in multiple seasons and one time during a critical playoff game and the Eagles won a Super Bowl with Wentz’s backup when Nick Foles did it. So how does that affect Howie Roseman’s thinking? He knows he has built a super bowl caliber roster but he needed a capable backup in case Wentz got hurt. I think he drafted Jalen Hurts with that in mind, an athletic QB who can use his legs, and hopefully develop his passing, use him in special packages. I think they wanted a better than average QB and that is what Hurts is for right now but then Carson Wentz fell apart and Hurts looked dynamic running with his legs just as Roseman thought when drafting him but he thought Hurts might be doing it for an injured Wentz not because Wentz had to be benched and eventually traded. 
 

so before 2020 I think Roseman was hoping to have Wentz play at a high level and have Hurts be a dynamic athlete and above average QB to come off the bench in case Wentz got hurt. With Wentz traded now Howie Roseman will have to decide if what he has seen of Hurts is enough to deem him his franchise QB or if someone in the 2021 can potentially be for them.

 

I know Jalen Hurts is a dynamic athlete and running QBs are better for fantasy but Philly won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles who is a pocket statue and Carson Wentz isn’t the fastest QB.

 

IF the Eagles chose Mac Jones and let’s say he won the competition and Jalen Hurts was the backup then Roseman would be getting back to what he was trying to replicate when he drafted Hurts, an athletic QB with upside to backup a more conventional pocket passer with more accuracy.  IF Hurts wins the competition then Mac Jones will be an above average backup QB that the Eagles could still win with if Jalen got hurt.

 

also, QB competition is really important to keep QBs continually striving to be better. It brings out the best in each other and helps avoid complacency. Not saying it’s right or wrong but good QBs are very valuable so if Philly gets a guy at 6 who they like at QB and Jalen Hurts continues to flourish that’s just high end trade commodities for them in a league starved for dynamic QBs.

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5 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

I’d be worried putting an immobile QB behind that line. That is what Wentz was. He got harassed. I don’t see, given their cap situation, how they can address o line with a free agent/s. Sewell makes a lot of sense to invest in. He could step in day 1 and shuffle the line to bolster the unit. Then you give Hurts a year. If he isn’t the answer then the extra first out of Wentz gives them ammo to draft or trade for something else next year. Having Sewell for five years on a rookie contract would go along ways into rebuild/recovery. 

Sewell won't make it to 6th overall unless the Bengals trade out of 5th.  Might not even make it past 3rd overall with Miami.  But if I'm the 'Fins then ideal scenario is trading down with the Eagles and giving 1.3 for the Eagles 2021 1st (1.6),  2021 2nd (2.37), and Zach Ertz who da Iggles want to move anyway.  Eagles probably won't take that deal though and will draft a WR instead even though OL would be better for their rebuild.  

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10 hours ago, devaster said:

Because of the arrogance of Roseman and thinking Philly is a QB factory and can increase their value and net higher draft picks after a few years in their system, similar to how Brady’s backups were viewed in value.

Now they have to rely on Hurts as their #1, which wasn’t the original plan. I think if they can truly move up and get a QB they fall in love with they will do so. And then make it a competition. More likely though is Hurts gets a year to prove he can play.

I was just thinking about the whole "QB factory" thing yesterday and how asinine that statement was in retrospect. Sure, you'd like things to work out that way, but to think that is part of your identity, as an organization, there has to be a longer legacy and some kind of organic element which ties the philosophy into the organization. Something that is engrained in the culture like how Pittsburgh and how they always seem have a good defense or how they are a WR factory. Obviously, the Eagles' brass and staff weren't solid on Wentz given Hurt's draft position. Given all the stories out there sounds like the franchise's faith in Wentz started to deteriorate shortly after he signed his huge contract. Hindsight is 20/20, but franchise tagging would have been the smart move until Carson proved he could stay healthy anyway.

I have Hurts in a couple of dynasty leagues so I am glad he is getting his shot and I like the new coaching staff that has been put in place. They will likely install some sort of Air Raid style scheme to work with Hurts' strengths. Given his mentality and work ethic it would not shock me if he overcame his accuracy issues and became a very good starter.

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3 hours ago, jumper said:

Sewell won't make it to 6th overall unless the Bengals trade out of 5th.  Might not even make it past 3rd overall with Miami.  But if I'm the 'Fins then ideal scenario is trading down with the Eagles and giving 1.3 for the Eagles 2021 1st (1.6),  2021 2nd (2.37), and Zach Ertz who da Iggles want to move anyway.  Eagles probably won't take that deal though and will draft a WR instead even though OL would be better for their rebuild.  

There is another great LT in this draft, I believe. 

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IRL maybe not so much.  For fantasy, Hurts will probably be pretty good because of his added rushing yards and TDs.  Not sure about his receivers, though.  Many question marks there.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

IRL maybe not so much.  For fantasy, Hurts will probably be pretty good because of his added rushing yards and TDs.  Not sure about his receivers, though.  Many question marks there.

If they take Chase at six. 🤔

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4 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

If they take Chase at six. 🤔

Chase or Kyle Pitts. Pitts would be a nice Gronk-like connect for Mega Hurts. 

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On 2/28/2021 at 11:15 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Hurts has wheels which make him a valuable fantasy commodity at the QB position and he does throw some decent passes but he will have trouble getting past his 1st or 2nd read before his legs cause him to take off and run. 
 

he has pretty good touch on his passes but his release is not he fastest and so when he has to make tight window throws where he needs more velocity with touch he gets a bit less accurate. His passes also have a tendency to float a little, not crisp, zip passes like you see from gunslingers like Rodgers, Maholmes, Baker, guys with tremendous trust in their arm strength and accuracy. 
 

end result I think the eagles have a starting QB who can win 10 games and probably make the playoffs but I think Huts would struggle against the defenses that clog his running lanes and force him to throw into tighter windows. For this reason I do see the Eagles adding a more pure passing QB prospect, at 6 I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see the Eagles take Mac Jones and have he and Hurts battle in true competition for the starting role. Jones would represent the opposite of Hurts, tall, gunslinger, accurate, not terribly mobile.

 

I find it unlikely that phily goes into the season with only Hurts Sudfeld as their QBs. Drafting one at 6 to provide competition is one route. Adding a vet like Andy Dalton would be another option.

NO franchise takes a QB with a top 6 pick with expectations that they're unsure if they'll be their franchise/starting QB - zero. ziltch.  You draft players in the top 10 with the belief they'll be an every game starter/All Pro caliber player.

If they take a QB with a top 6 pick - which they're not doing - there may be an opportunity for Hurts to start but that top 6 pick will 100% be expected to be their long-term QB.

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