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Aaron Judge 2021 Outlook


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Had heard something about Judge and Stanton not focusing so much on weight lifting and more on stretching this offseason.  Can't find the tweet about it now, sorry.  Something to keep an eye on in ST though.  Hoping that will lead to healthier season for him.

Even with the injury risk (the projections are pegging him for ~134 games), he's projected to hit upper .250s (or just shy of a .900 OPS), 35 bombs, low 90s Rs & upper 80s RBIs.

Currently an ADP of around 57, right around Vlad Jr, Arozarena & Pete Alonso.  I guess the question is; is he worth that pick at those projections, knowing he might finally give you 150 games and blow that ADP out of the water?

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28 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Had heard something about Judge and Stanton not focusing so much on weight lifting and more on stretching this offseason.  Can't find the tweet about it now, sorry.  Something to keep an eye on in ST though.  Hoping that will lead to healthier season for him.

Even with the injury risk (the projections are pegging him for ~134 games), he's projected to hit upper .250s (or just shy of a .900 OPS), 35 bombs, low 90s Rs & upper 80s RBIs.

Currently an ADP of around 57, right around Vlad Jr, Arozarena & Pete Alonso.  I guess the question is; is he worth that pick at those projections, knowing he might finally give you 150 games and blow that ADP out of the water?

or he could give you 50 games and a kick in the ole crotch

 

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8 hours ago, knifeparty said:

Yeah they have been doing hot yoga together all offseason.  I don't know if that translates to more games played but their Downward Dog is probably exceptional at this point.

So they are less Zangief more Dhalsim this year. 

I mean I guess it can't hurt? I would take Judge over Arozarena, but that's more due to the latter's ADP probably being a bit high. 

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19 hours ago, jb_power said:

or he could give you 50 games and a kick in the ole crotch

 

Yea, I suppose it's just as fair to predict 50 games as it would be 150.  Given his history, 100-120 would probably be the safe bet.  Not sure why the projection models have him around 134.

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10 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So they are less Zangief more Dhalsim this year. 

I mean I guess it can't hurt? I would take Judge over Arozarena, but that's more due to the latter's ADP probably being a bit high. 

I like the reference!  In every mock I do I come to the point where I have the chance to take Judge and I just can't pull the trigger even with his discounted ADP.  Same goes for Stanton.  I know they can both be league winning picks especially with where they are going in drafts but I just have no faith in them staying healthy.  I've been burned by both the last 2 seasons so maybe that plays into my extreme displeasure for these 2.

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1 hour ago, knifeparty said:

I like the reference!  In every mock I do I come to the point where I have the chance to take Judge and I just can't pull the trigger even with his discounted ADP.  Same goes for Stanton.  I know they can both be league winning picks especially with where they are going in drafts but I just have no faith in them staying healthy.  I've been burned by both the last 2 seasons so maybe that plays into my extreme displeasure for these 2.

They're both guys I'd probably take a couple times if I played in multiple leagues.  They bust, oh well. Can you imagine how fun that team would be if they both played 150 though?

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I can understand fading him in redraft leagues or standard 5x5.

 

If it’s a keeper league, H2H or OBP league then this guy is still an elite hitter when healthy and I wouldn’t let him slip too .

 

With the ball being de-juiced I will gamble one of the preeminent power hitters in baseball. He can still get better skills-wise and you can see it with the change in his stance last year

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14 hours ago, knifeparty said:

I like the reference!  In every mock I do I come to the point where I have the chance to take Judge and I just can't pull the trigger even with his discounted ADP.  Same goes for Stanton.  I know they can both be league winning picks especially with where they are going in drafts but I just have no faith in them staying healthy.  I've been burned by both the last 2 seasons so maybe that plays into my extreme displeasure for these 2.

There is still a lot of upside with a healthy Judge. The same cant be said about Stanton.

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19 minutes ago, Evincar said:

There is still a lot of upside with a healthy Judge. The same cant be said about Stanton.

Uhh, what?

The guy hit 38 HRs the last time he played a full healthy season and FIFTY NINE the year before that.

I get avoiding him if you don't think he can stay healthy, but how can you say he offers no upside IF healthy?

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12 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Uhh, what?

The guy hit 38 HRs the last time he played a full healthy season and FIFTY NINE the year before that.

I get avoiding him if you don't think he can stay healthy, but how can you say he offers no upside IF healthy?

He's never come close to matching some of his best Miami seasons despite getting a park and lineup upgrade. His 2018 numbers are nothing special when you get can those numbers from the Rosario/Soler/Castellenos/Mancini types who have a breakout season every year.

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23 minutes ago, Evincar said:

He's never come close to matching some of his best Miami seasons despite getting a park and lineup upgrade. His 2018 numbers are nothing special when you get can those numbers from the Rosario/Soler/Castellenos/Mancini types who have a breakout season every year.

 Judge reminds me a lot of kershaw a few years ago where no one wanted him and no one was excited to draft or own him.  

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This thread is pretty much the same sequel each year, at least in the pre-season. I think we all agree that he’ll be great in a full season, but at this point it’s on him to prove he can do it. Therein lies the gamble. I can’t blame anyone who’s been torched not taking it.

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  • 1 month later...

And there it is...

Quote

Aaron Judge (side) remained out of the Yankees' lineup Friday.

"Felt like I wanted to at least wait another day," manager Aaron Boone said. The skipper added that Judge hit in the batting cage Friday with no issues and he didn't rule out the outfielder potentially being available to pinch-hit Friday. It sounds like there's a decent chance Judge will be back in the lineup Saturday. Clint Frazier will slide over to right field Friday and Mike Tauchman will start in left.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

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