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Aaron Jones 2021 Outlook


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Looked but didn't see a thread started for him yet. This blurb from the main page should be good enough to get the conversation started. The question is...does GB re-sign him or let him walk?

The Athletic's Sheil Kapadia believes Aaron Jones could get up to $15 million a year in free agency. 

That would put Jones on par with Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott, and just $1 million less than Christian McCaffrey, the highest paid running back in NFL history. It would hardly be surprising to see a team break open the vault for Jones, who has 3,017 yards from scrimmage since the start of 2019 and whose 829 receiving yards over the past two seasons rank sixth among running backs. His 51 runs of 10-plus yards are tied for sixth over the past two seasons. Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said the team would like to bring back Jones for 2021 and beyond, but at 26 years old, this will probably be Jones' only chance to break the bank. Packers backfield mate Jamaal Williams is also a free agent. AJ Dillon, who flashed late in the 2020 season, waits in the wings.

Source: The Athletic
Feb 23, 2021, 10:23 AM ET
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Aaron Jones began getting the majority of GB's carries after their bye week in 2018. First game after their 2018 bye was in Week 8... 2018 Weeks 8--17: #12 RB in PPR (he missed the last two weeks a

If your franchise QB is lacking quality receiver depth, and you already have two good tailbacks, it makes the decision far more puzzling.

Eh, the owners wouldn't vote against their own interests, and the players' union couldn't broach this until the next CBA is up. Jones seems like a no brainer tag candidate for them to keep him one mor

24 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

soooooo is it time to trade for Williams in dynasty? :)

You mean Dillon? Williams is a free agent and will likely be a backup somewhere next season. Dillon will likely be the leadback in GB next year.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

You mean Dillon? Williams is a free agent and will likely be a backup somewhere next season. Dillon will likely be the leadback in GB next year.

I just don't see GB letting both backs walk in FA and rolling with Dillon a feature back in only his second season as a pro (a with a total of 46 career carries). You may want them to do that, but I just don't see it.

Also think they re-sign JWill to a more modest extension (as compared to what AJ will likely fetch on the open market). It was said the coaches noticed how much better condition he was in when he reported last season, and he looked really good when given the chance (especially when Jones was out for a few games). He's no Aaron Jones, but he's above average talent at the position and knows pass pro (something Dillon is still learning).

Dillon will have a role, but if the re-sign JWill, his role will be what JWill's was these past 2 seasons.

JMHO...

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I think Jones will be too expensive to bring back. I see them bringing back Williams if he's willing to take a reasonable contract and think I read he wants to stay in GB. I think they give Dillon the primary role with the caveat that Williams will get an increased role.

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1 hour ago, The G Man said:

I just don't see GB letting both backs walk in FA and rolling with Dillon a feature back in only his second season as a pro (a with a total of 46 career carries). You may want them to do that, but I just don't see it.

Also think they re-sign JWill to a more modest extension (as compared to what AJ will likely fetch on the open market). It was said the coaches noticed how much better condition he was in when he reported last season, and he looked really good when given the chance (especially when Jones was out for a few games). He's no Aaron Jones, but he's above average talent at the position and knows pass pro (something Dillon is still learning).

Dillon will have a role, but if the re-sign JWill, his role will be what JWill's was these past 2 seasons.

JMHO...

 

1 hour ago, Joe Mama said:

I think Jones will be too expensive to bring back. I see them bringing back Williams if he's willing to take a reasonable contract and think I read he wants to stay in GB. I think they give Dillon the primary role with the caveat that Williams will get an increased role.

Hope you guys are right, I like the idea of Williams getting a bigger role for GB, but they're always extremely cheap, and wouldn't be surprised if they let both guys walk.

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The franchise tag is only 8.5 mil for backs.   One year of that is certainly well worth it for Jones.   A top dollar long term deal doesn't make much sense for GB, but getting a bargain prime year and letting him walk after that certainly seems plausible.    I imagine Jones would hold out, but i'd try it if I'm GB, and maybe compromise with an extra guarantee on top of that, plus a an agreement not to tag after 2021.  

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6 minutes ago, BrianM said:

The franchise tag is only 8.5 mil for backs.   One year of that is certainly well worth it for Jones.   A top dollar long term deal doesn't make much sense for GB, but getting a bargain prime year and letting him walk after that certainly seems plausible.    I imagine Jones would hold out, but i'd try it if I'm GB, and maybe compromise with an extra guarantee on top of that, plus a an agreement not to tag after 2021.  

Hadn’t considered the franchise tag, that could be a possibility. Apparently GB hasn’t used the franchise tag since 2010 though.

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So I see he is a target of Miami.....I could see that working really well.  

Young QB who has long term questions around him.  Pair him with a proven back who can open things up for him. The question is....does Jones have the same success with Tua that he did with Rogers??

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4 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

So I see he is a target of Miami.....I could see that working really well.  

Young QB who has long term questions around him.  Pair him with a proven back who can open things up for him. The question is....does Jones have the same success with Tua that he did with Rogers??

Nope.

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Yeah, here's the blurb from the main page you guys are referring to:

Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reports there's "mutual interest" between the Dolphins and impending free agent Aaron Jones.

Miami will have roughly $26 million in cap space when the new league year begins and could easily create an additional $36 million in cap space by restructuring contracts and/or outright releasing a number of veterans. The Dolphins could also opt for the cheaper route in adding to its backfield with the No. 18 overall pick and instead allocating any excess cap to a high-end wide receiver and another cog in the front-seven — two other drastic needs. With the Jets also reportedly in on Jones, odds are the 26-year-old at the very least opens 2021 as a workhorse among his own backfield. That would also likely entail Jamaal Williams re-upping with the Packers immediately.

Feb 24, 2021, 12:01 AM ET
 
I agree I think it would be a mistake for Miami to sign Jones to a big contract, so that's probably exactly what they will do...LOL!
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The plot thickens! I was assuming he was as good as gone, but maybe he gets one more year as a Packer. Big concern now would be that he might not be happy with the tag. 

 

Speaking Tuesday, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said the franchise tag is an option for impending free agent Aaron Jones. 

"It's very much case by case," Gutekunst said after maligning that there are "usually better ways to avoid it." 26 with his one real chance to get paid as an NFLer, Jones is not going to be handing out hometown discounts. That means the tag will be all but inevitable if the Pack want to keep him, either as a one-year stopgap or as a stepping stone to a long-term deal before July's deadline. Unlike some positions, the tag is highly affordable from a team perspective for running backs, checking in around $8 million. 

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20 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

The plot thickens! I was assuming he was as good as gone, but maybe he gets one more year as a Packer. Big concern now would be that he might not be happy with the tag. 

 

Speaking Tuesday, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said the franchise tag is an option for impending free agent Aaron Jones. 

"It's very much case by case," Gutekunst said after maligning that there are "usually better ways to avoid it." 26 with his one real chance to get paid as an NFLer, Jones is not going to be handing out hometown discounts. That means the tag will be all but inevitable if the Pack want to keep him, either as a one-year stopgap or as a stepping stone to a long-term deal before July's deadline. Unlike some positions, the tag is highly affordable from a team perspective for running backs, checking in around $8 million. 

That sucks for Jones if they tag him and that's all he gets.   He might not be happy with it but with the new CBA rules, he'd almost have to play it out.  I think that's right anyway. 

 

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3 hours ago, K197040 said:

That sucks for Jones if they tag him and that's all he gets.   He might not be happy with it but with the new CBA rules, he'd almost have to play it out.  I think that's right anyway. 

 

If that happens I wonder if he goes the Lev Bell route.

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3 hours ago, K197040 said:

That sucks for Jones if they tag him and that's all he gets.   He might not be happy with it but with the new CBA rules, he'd almost have to play it out.  I think that's right anyway. 

 

I read something suggesting Green Bay may indeed tag him, but only to then trade him. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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3 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I read something suggesting Green Bay may indeed tag him, but only to then trade him. 

I feel like I keep reading that about various players (ARob, Golladay, Jones, etc.). It makes sense from the standpoint of the team. If you can even get a 4th round pick instead of nothing, why not? If enough teams start doing that, I could see them putting in a rule that franchised players can't be traded for X amount of time. 

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22 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I feel like I keep reading that about various players (ARob, Golladay, Jones, etc.). It makes sense from the standpoint of the team. If you can even get a 4th round pick instead of nothing, why not? If enough teams start doing that, I could see them putting in a rule that franchised players can't be traded for X amount of time. 

Eh, the owners wouldn't vote against their own interests, and the players' union couldn't broach this until the next CBA is up. Jones seems like a no brainer tag candidate for them to keep him one more year, IMO. Then when he leaves via FA, they'll get a nice compensatory pick.

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Tag and trade is a violation of the CBA but a player has to complain for it to matter.  Jarvis Landry got tagged, then traded, but he got a long term deal and never actually played under a tag.

As for Aaron Jones, $8 million for one season is a pretty good deal for the Packers.  And Jones bears the injury risk.  Jones may not like it but he can't pull a Le'Veon Bell because there is a new CBA signed since then.  A player has to report at the start of the year or no accrued season.

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Any reason teams and players can’t work together on a mutually beneficial tag & trade?
 

For example, Steelers want Jones, and Jones wants to accept a contract being offered by Pittsburgh. Green Bay says ok Aaron, we’ll let you go but we need to get something out of the deal, so they all agree to tag and trade him to Steelers. Everyone wins?

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8 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Any reason teams and players can’t work together on a mutually beneficial tag & trade?
 

For example, Steelers want Jones, and Jones wants to accept a contract being offered by Pittsburgh. Green Bay says ok Aaron, we’ll let you go but we need to get something out of the deal, so they all agree to tag and trade him to Steelers. Everyone wins?

That is sort of what happened with Miami, Landry, and Cleveland.  But it is still a violation of the CBA.

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8 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

But their source is the social media posting from the Packers' GM.  And I read that social media post to say that the Packers will use the franchise tag on Aaron Jones if he concludes that doing so is in their best interests.  So I am not at all sure that their source supports their conclusion.

Edited by SharkSwimmer
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