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Aaron Jones 2021 Outlook


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No developments could ever justify the Packers 2020 draft.

But I do like the Jones signing.  This team is close, so keeping as many key guys on the roster as feasible is a sound move.

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Aaron Jones began getting the majority of GB's carries after their bye week in 2018. First game after their 2018 bye was in Week 8... 2018 Weeks 8--17: #12 RB in PPR (he missed the last two weeks a

McCaffrey- Darnold Cook- Cousins Barkley- Jones Henry- Tannehil Kamara- Winston/Hill Elliot- Dak Taylor- Wentz Ekeler- Herbert Chubb- Mayfield Jones- Love/

They had a bad draft overall, but Dillon wasn't bad pick. If they'd taken one of the stud WRs in the first, Dillon in the 2nd, and an impact lineman in the 3rd, it would have been a great draft. The c

14 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Saying they had a glaring need at WR is not a fact. That’s an opinion that you are representing as a fact.  
 

The Packers Front Office had different views than yours about the state of their receiving room(also an opinion, not fact) so they drafted accordingly. 
 

To be fair, Rogers did just throw for 4300 yards. 48 TDs and win a MVP.  Someone on the team was catching passes. 

If you’d prefer me to restate my opinion in factual terms by referring to the poor on-field performance of their existing WR corps as of last year’s draft, I have no problem doing so.  But I feel like we are arguing semantics at this point.

In any event, I called the decision “puzzling” - an opinion (not fact) shared by most.  You falsely alleged that I assumed they made that puzzling decision with current events in mind.  I don’t believe they did, and nothing in my initial post even suggested as much.

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15 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No developments could ever justify the Packers 2020 draft.

But I do like the Jones signing.  This team is close, so keeping as many key guys on the roster as feasible is a sound move.


Playing Devils advocate here. 

What if they don’t sign any other RBs, Jones goes down in the pre-season(knock on wood that doesn’t happen), and Dillon runs for 1,300 yards 12 TDs and adds another 20 catches for 150 yards and 2 more scores?

What if two years from now Aaron Rodgers decides to retire and Love steps in and becomes an immediate high level QB after riding the bench for a few years? 
 

Would it then be justified? 
 

For the record, I’m not saying I agree with the Love pick and I’d say it’s a small chance this draft is looked at fondly over time but to say NOTHING could happen that makes it justifiable is ridiculous. 

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For Jones owners, this is the best possible outcome. We’ve seen what he can do in this offense. The only change will be the likely departure of Williams, and since Dillon isn’t a typical receiving/3rd down back that should result in even more work for Jones as a receiver. 

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9 hours ago, GottaGetTheWin said:


Playing Devils advocate here. 

What if they don’t sign any other RBs, Jones goes down in the pre-season(knock on wood that doesn’t happen), and Dillon runs for 1,300 yards 12 TDs and adds another 20 catches for 150 yards and 2 more scores?

What if two years from now Aaron Rodgers decides to retire and Love steps in and becomes an immediate high level QB after riding the bench for a few years? 
 

Would it then be justified? 
 

For the record, I’m not saying I agree with the Love pick and I’d say it’s a small chance this draft is looked at fondly over time but to say NOTHING could happen that makes it justifiable is ridiculous. 

I am sticking to my guns.  For a team that went 13-3 in 2019 but got out-muscled by San Fran in the playoffs, they needed a few key guys who could contribute immediately to put them over the top.  Instead they used extremely high picks on a QB and a RB even though they already had top-5ish guys at each position.  That's stupid.

Instead of maybe selecting a cb so Kevin "Burnt Toast" King is not on the field, or a WR so Equanimious St. Brown could be in the FCF League where he belongs instead of dropping passes in the end zone that hit him in the hands.

Dillon played very well in his one start in 2020.  And I suspect he will get some opportunities to shine in 2021.  But Aaron Jones has a much better all-around game.  Re-signing Jones was a smart move.

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Aaron Jones began getting the majority of GB's carries after their bye week in 2018. First game after their 2018 bye was in Week 8...

2018 Weeks 8--17: #12 RB in PPR (he missed the last two weeks and was #7 RB from Weeks 8--15)
2019 full season: #2 RB in PPR
2020 full season: #5 RB in PPR
2021: TBD (though one thing we do know is no matter how well he performs, even if it's on par with the above ranks, there will be people that complain about Jones not being consistent enough)

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for what it's worth he got:

2019 : 14.75 carries per game and 4.25 targets

2020: 14.25 carries per game and 4.5 targets

I didn't use 2018 because it looked like there were a few games that he got injured in.

Anyway, seems like 14 carries and 4 targets is a safe estimate of what to expect.

That being said, if Williams is gone, I'd expect at least the targets to go up.

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5 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

That being said, if Williams is gone, I'd expect at least the targets to go up.

He’s said his farewells to the fans, so I think it’s a safe assumption.

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42 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He’s said his farewells to the fans, so I think it’s a safe assumption.

I have a hunch that the Seahawks will sign Williams. It's not based on anything, but it just feels right to me. 

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

I have a hunch that the Seahawks will sign Williams. It's not based on anything, but it just feels right to me. 

I could definitely see that

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I have a hunch that the Seahawks will sign Williams. It's not based on anything, but it just feels right to me. 

They'd be smart to do so - he fits.

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I have a hunch that the Seahawks will sign Williams. It's not based on anything, but it just feels right to me. 

As a Williams dynasty owner, I would actually love this. Williams isn’t special, but he’s pretty good in most areas. And I’d say he’s  an above average pass catcher. 

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  • 1 month later...

As the resident member of the Aaron Jones fan club, can someone tell me if I'm crazy for thinking Rodgers departure could be GOOD for Jones?

Last year, Rodgers threw like 30 TDs from inside the 5. Surely, there would be more goal line work for both RBs with Rodgers out of town.

Jones also only had 47 receptions last year. Dillon isn't much of a receiving threat and a lesser QB would be more likely to check down frequently. It could be a massive PPR year for Jones with a replacement level QB and a lot of negative gamescripts. 

I get that the offense overall will take a steep dip without Rodgers, but Jones feels like the one guy that would not take a hit. 

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

As the resident member of the Aaron Jones fan club, can someone tell me if I'm crazy for thinking Rodgers departure could be GOOD for Jones?

Last year, Rodgers threw like 30 TDs from inside the 5. Surely, there would be more goal line work for both RBs with Rodgers out of town.

Jones also only had 47 receptions last year. Dillon isn't much of a receiving threat and a lesser QB would be more likely to check down frequently. It could be a massive PPR year for Jones with a replacement level QB and a lot of negative gamescripts. 

I get that the offense overall will take a steep dip without Rodgers, but Jones feels like the one guy that would not take a hit. 

I don't know. I don't think Rodgers leaving is good for anybody on that offense. 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

As the resident member of the Aaron Jones fan club, can someone tell me if I'm crazy for thinking Rodgers departure could be GOOD for Jones?

Last year, Rodgers threw like 30 TDs from inside the 5. Surely, there would be more goal line work for both RBs with Rodgers out of town.

Jones had 16 rushing TD in 2019, 10 of them from within the 5 yd line, and that was if I remember correctly with Aaron Rodgers.

Meaning, it's mostly a strategic choice, They may do the same again, or not, but I'm not sure Rodgers leavng automagically has such an effect.

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12 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Jones had 16 rushing TD in 2019, 10 of them from within the 5 yd line, and that was if I remember correctly with Aaron Rodgers.

Meaning, it's mostly a strategic choice, They may do the same again, or not, but I'm not sure Rodgers leavng automagically has such an effect.

I think it was a Rodgers choice. He was on a mission to pile up as many stats as possible last year. Who knows if that continues if Rodgers returns, but it certainly won't with a new QB. 

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It also worked well last year so it's not like he was forcing it. I'd bet a lot of money that if Rodgers doesn't end up playing for GB, all offensive skill players will be dramatically worse than last year because scoring opportunities will be down significantly. Hard for me to imagine anyone benefits from it.

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7 hours ago, trilly said:

It also worked well last year so it's not like he was forcing it. I'd bet a lot of money that if Rodgers doesn't end up playing for GB, all offensive skill players will be dramatically worse than last year because scoring opportunities will be down significantly. Hard for me to imagine anyone benefits from it.

To play devil’s advocate, if GB scoring is down then theoretically they will be trailing, or at least in close games more often. Those kind of game scripts should keep Jones heavily  involved from start to finish, and more involved in the passing game week in and week out. With Williams gone Jones should get virtually all of the receiving work out if the backfield. 

It’s certainly reasonable to expect the GB offense as a whole to take a step back without Rodgers, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Aaron Jones himself will take a step back. A case can be made that he actually takes a step forward as the leader and focal point of the offense, seeing a significant increase in carries, receptions, and total yardage. A Rodgers-less GB offense will likely be running through Aaron Jones, and GB’s unexpected re-signing of Jones is starting to make more sense now. They likely saw this coming and knew they may may need to turn to Jones as the centerpiece of a new-look offense in 2021.
 

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

To play devil’s advocate, if GB scoring is down then theoretically they will be trailing, or at least in close games more often. Those kind of game scripts should keep Jones heavily  involved from start to finish, and more involved in the passing game week in and week out. With Williams gone Jones should get virtually all of the receiving work out if the backfield. 

It’s certainly reasonable to expect the GB offense as a whole to take a step back without Rodgers, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Aaron Jones himself will take a step back. A case can be made that he actually takes a step forward as the leader and focal point of the offense, seeing a significant increase in carries, receptions, and total yardage. A Rodgers-less GB offense will likely be running through Aaron Jones, and GB’s unexpected re-signing of Jones is starting to make more sense now. They likely saw this coming and knew they may may need to turn to Jones as the centerpiece of a new-look offense in 2021.
 

 

While I understand your train of thought I think it may be overly ambitious. We've had a good look at a Rodgers-less GB offense, albeit with a different coaching staff, and it was really difficult to watch... and at the time they still had Nelson, Cobb, Adams and a very young Jones/WIlliams.

It's quite obvious the team goes as Rodgers goes, with no other "real" weapons on the field other than Adams or Jones it's hard to envision either of them having much success without high level QB play to relieve the pressure on them. With that said you'd be relying on Jones as a pure volume play on a team that is probably going to have its struggles moving down the field and scoring.. that typically isn't too valuable in fantasy. The only real saving grace here would be that Jordan Love is better than expected, but as it stands defenses can theoretically lock down Jones/Adams and force Love to make plays that we're not sure he's capable of making yet.

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48 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

While I understand your train of thought I think it may be overly ambitious. We've had a good look at a Rodgers-less GB offense, albeit with a different coaching staff, and it was really difficult to watch... and at the time they still had Nelson, Cobb, Adams and a very young Jones/WIlliams.

It's quite obvious the team goes as Rodgers goes, with no other "real" weapons on the field other than Adams or Jones it's hard to envision either of them having much success without high level QB play to relieve the pressure on them. With that said you'd be relying on Jones as a pure volume play on a team that is probably going to have its struggles moving down the field and scoring.. that typically isn't too valuable in fantasy. The only real saving grace here would be that Jordan Love is better than expected, but as it stands defenses can theoretically lock down Jones/Adams and force Love to make plays that we're not sure he's capable of making yet.

McCaffrey- Darnold

Cook- Cousins

Barkley- Jones

Henry- Tannehil

Kamara- Winston/Hill

Elliot- Dak

Taylor- Wentz

Ekeler- Herbert

Chubb- Mayfield

Jones- Love/Unsigned veteran

Mixon- Burrow

Gibson- Fitzpatrick 

Akers- Stafford

Swift- Goff

Sanders- Hurts

Those are currently the consensus top 15 fantasy RBs. There aren’t a lot of great QBs accompanying most of those RBs, so why are we so sure Jones can’t remain a high end fantasy option with a less-than-Rodgers caliber QB? It’s plausible that Love or some veteran QB can be just as, if not more, effective as at least 9 of those QBs. It’s also possible GB trades Rodgers and receives a high quality QB in return.
 

In my opinion Jones has proven enough on the field to give us confidence that like many of the other RBs on the list he doesn’t need an elite QB to have fantasy success. Particularly with GB’s solid offensive line and what should be career highs in both carries and receptions.  

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

McCaffrey- Darnold

Cook- Cousins

Barkley- Jones

Henry- Tannehil

Kamara- Winston/Hill

Elliot- Dak

Taylor- Wentz

Ekeler- Herbert

Chubb- Mayfield

Jones- Love/Unsigned veteran

Mixon- Burrow

Gibson- Fitzpatrick 

Akers- Stafford

Swift- Goff

Sanders- Hurts

Those are currently the consensus top 15 fantasy RBs. There aren’t a lot of great QBs accompanying most of those RBs, so why are we so sure Jones can’t remain a high end fantasy option with a less-than-Rodgers caliber QB? It’s plausible that Love or some veteran QB can be just as, if not more, effective as at least 9 of those QBs. It’s also possible GB trades Rodgers and receives a high quality QB in return.
 

In my opinion Jones has proven enough on the field to give us confidence that like many of the other RBs on the list he doesn’t need an elite QB to have fantasy success. Particularly with GB’s solid offensive line and what should be career highs in both carries and receptions.  

Which is understandable but no matter what the biggest piece of the conversation still falls back on us trying to predict whether or not Love will be any good and Jones effectiveness being tied almost directly to that. As of right now (assuming Rodgers leaves) you're banking on Jones over-producing, which is totally possible, but would require him to take another step in his level of play due to the fact that not only are the Packers losing the MVP at QB (which naturally means less scoring is to be had, something that has really boosted Jones value) but the team also didn't do anything to help their young QB in terms of passing weapons.

It's all clearly a guessing game at this point, the offense could revolve around the run game and Jones could bail out Love (ala Cleveland.. to some extent, I think Baker is solid.. but I digress) or poor QB play could just as easily tank Jones effectiveness as defenses can tee off on him and Adams. I just don't see a very clear path for Jones to out perform himself from last season, it would take a lot of circumstances to go better than planned.

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9 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

Which is understandable but no matter what the biggest piece of the conversation still falls back on us trying to predict whether or not Love will be any good and Jones effectiveness being tied almost directly to that. As of right now (assuming Rodgers leaves) you're banking on Jones over-producing, which is totally possible, but would require him to take another step in his level of play due to the fact that not only are the Packers losing the MVP at QB (which naturally means less scoring is to be had, something that has really boosted Jones value) but the team also didn't do anything to help their young QB in terms of passing weapons.

It's all clearly a guessing game at this point, the offense could revolve around the run game and Jones could bail out Love (ala Cleveland.. to some extent, I think Baker is solid.. but I digress) or poor QB play could just as easily tank Jones effectiveness as defenses can tee off on him and Adams. I just don't see a very clear path for Jones to out perform himself from last season, it would take a lot of circumstances to go better than planned.

Every RB’s success is tied to their QB to some degree. You seem to be suggesting that Jones simply isn’t a good enough RB to have success without an elite QB. With that, I’d have to disagree. From what I’ve seen, Jones looks every bit as talented and explosive, if not more so, as most of the other RBs listed above. 
 

Of those top 15 RBs, about 10 of them have “game manager” type QBs. Still we’re expecting big things from them. Why is Jones any different? Assuming Love can be at least a game manager, or if necessary GB can acquire at least a game manager type QB, I see no reason to think Aaron Jones can’t have the same kind of success as all those other RBs currently ranked around him with similar QB situations. 
 


 

 

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Any time scoring opportunities go down it isn't good for the offense as a whole. If Rodgers leaves it isn't good. Jones will probably be fine, but he won't be as good.

Scoring going down can lead to trailing more and garbage time, but the entire point is scoring is down. That means that even with garbage time they won't be matching 2019 or 2020 levels. Garbage time is great for a terrible team, but it doesn't match those scoring opportunities that had existed. Those bottom dweller teams don't all of a sudden have a ton of scoring opportunities because of garbage time. Otherwise bottom dwellers would be near the top in league scoring every season.

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