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Dylan Moore 2021 Outlook


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Didn't find a thread on him; so will create one here.

Mostly undervalued due to small sample size in 2020; his average ADP is right outside of 100, which may be a bit higher than one would like for someone without a longer track record. 

I found this article (https://www.pitcherlist.com/dylan-moore-tangled-up-in-blue/), which was written in August of last year, details on the swing mechanic change Moore had to go through in his first year in major league (2019) and how that change and the new approach have started to show results in 2020. 

While there are concerns that Moore "could be" a fast ball only hitter; the in-zone swing rates shows that he's being more selective in 2020 on what to swing as the article indicates.

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What does this mean? Moore is looking for his pitch and doing his best to lay off when it’s not what he’s looking for–even if it’s a strike. This approach is common among some of the best hitters in the game and has become more popular with the swing reinventions that came with the fly-ball revolution. Look for your pitch and give your “A-swing” when you get it–or at least when you think you’re getting it.

Overall, I think that Moore is a calculated risk investment whom I would likely pick him at around his avg. ADP; I mean the new approach and the new swing resulted in drop in K%, but increased in hard hit % and EV which indicates sustainable power; the barrel % has also seen a significant increase.

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Only thing that I would disagree with the article is the SB total; it indicates that he's a 10-15 SB range runner; I couldn't find his sprint speed but a 71% ranking on sprint speed and based on his minor league data, I would think a 20+ SB is not out of the question.

 

 

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In Yahoo leagues he retains 2B, 3B, SS, OF eligibility. Should be 2B and OF in most other formats.

In a year where SBs look very weak, he provides some value. Steamer has him 12th in projected SB.

Projection systems are pretty aligned: bad average and OBP with 14 - 19 HR and 21-23 SB. In leagues he retains the extra eligibility, I like his price. Seems a bit high if he's only 2B and OF eligible.

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Statcast speed is useful for trying to gauge SBs, but its only part of the picture.  Charlie Blackmon is an example of a guy that in his late 20s was stealing 20-40SBs a year, with good but not great speed.

With how aggressive Moore is in stealing, I think 15-20SBs is a possibility, but it might come with getting caught 5-10 times as well.

But he simply doesn't have the raw speed of somebody like Merrifield or Tatis.

It sounds like he is coming into camp with more muscle as well, so I think that hurts his SBs even more, so 15SBs seems fair to project.

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I've been pushing hard to acquire Moore in my keeper league in recent weeks, but my interest in him has magically piqued the current owner's interest as well. He's 28 years old, so I doubt we see much over the 15SB projection talked about above. Although I would love to see 20+, the age and added muscle this offseason are leading me to take the under there. One thing that the age and added muscle will help him with is obviously the power. I am taking the over in the 15-19HR projections have him hitting. Low 20s wouldn't surprise me at all over the course of a full season. Not sure where he hit in the lineup the majority of last season, but I do know Seattle put out 53 different lineups the first 53 games of the year, which is a bit strange. Moore to me seems like he would play really well hitting second though. Taking everything into consideration, I like his overall stat line to look something like this:

87R/ 22HR/ 65RBI/ 17SB/.265AVG

That puts him somewhere in the range of 2B 7-8, where I feel like the position begins to fall off a bit of a cliff. Basically that means I'm taking Moore's upside over a lot of those fringe type players in the Muncy, Edman, Solak, and McNeil territory. Just my 2 cents.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Fools gold imo.  His minor league numbers don't really point to anything special.  He's 28 and hit .234 in AA + .271 in AAA in the PCL.   He has some SB ability but 24 SB with 14 CS.  Maybe he's a late bloomer and is just hitting his stride, but outside of a late round flyer I don't think this guy will be on my teams.

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11 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

Fools gold imo.  His minor league numbers don't really point to anything special.  He's 28 and hit .234 in AA + .271 in AAA in the PCL.   He has some SB ability but 24 SB with 14 CS.  Maybe he's a late bloomer and is just hitting his stride, but outside of a late round flyer I don't think this guy will be on my teams.

Although I don’t disagree with you, and you’re likely correct, this sounds a lot like what was going through my head 4 years ago when deciding whether or not to pick up Whit Merrifield.

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56 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Although I don’t disagree with you, and you’re likely correct, this sounds a lot like what was going through my head 4 years ago when deciding whether or not to pick up Whit Merrifield.

Very true.  There's always that guy or two that you look at and say "I just don't see it" and then you find yourself eating crow.  For Moore's sake I hope I'm 100% wrong and he has a Merifield break out.   I'll be happy to be wrong if that happens.

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6 hours ago, dicka24 said:

Fools gold imo.  His minor league numbers don't really point to anything special.  He's 28 and hit .234 in AA + .271 in AAA in the PCL.   He has some SB ability but 24 SB with 14 CS.  Maybe he's a late bloomer and is just hitting his stride, but outside of a late round flyer I don't think this guy will be on my teams.

The thing is no one should be drafting him for average. He has a lot of positional flexibility and with a bad average can still give you 15 HR and 20 SB. For someone that's eligible at SS, 2B, OF (and 3B on Yahoo), if he hits something like .220 with the aforementioned 15 HR and 20 SB (which is in line with the projection systems), he should provide value at his current price point. He has 17 HR and 23 SB in 441 career plate appearances in the MLB, so its not like the production came from just last year.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

The thing is no one should be drafting him for average. He has a lot of positional flexibility and with a bad average can still give you 15 HR and 20 SB. For someone that's eligible at SS, 2B, OF (and 3B on Yahoo), if he hits something like .220 with the aforementioned 15 HR and 20 SB (which is in line with the projection systems), he should provide value at his current price point. He has 17 HR and 23 SB in 441 career plate appearances in the MLB, so its not like the production came from just last year.

While I also think his best contributions would be his power/speed combo as well as his multi-positional eligibility; I don't believe his BA will hurt you.  Moore spent the '19/'20 offseason refining his swing consistency and shortening up his approach to stay more direct to the ball and limit his previous swing-and-miss tendency; the result was less K% than his rookie year. If we are looking at minor league stats for any indications, Moore had an avg. of 18.3% K rate and a .259 BA across entire minor league career. With this new approach which resulted in a 89 percentile on his barrel %, I would expect a BA between .250-.265. I'd say not too shabby!

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10 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

The thing is no one should be drafting him for average. He has a lot of positional flexibility and with a bad average can still give you 15 HR and 20 SB. For someone that's eligible at SS, 2B, OF (and 3B on Yahoo), if he hits something like .220 with the aforementioned 15 HR and 20 SB (which is in line with the projection systems), he should provide value at his current price point. He has 17 HR and 23 SB in 441 career plate appearances in the MLB, so its not like the production came from just last year.

His OBP was .358 last season so he doesn't hurt you in OBP leagues as opposed to BA leagues.

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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

His OBP was .358 last season so he doesn't hurt you in OBP leagues as opposed to BA leagues.

Can't believe I missed the OBP part of his game! While he averaged 8.8% in the majors so far, his avg minor league BB% was a solid 10%. The more I think and talk about this guy, the more I like about him!

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  • 4 weeks later...
9 minutes ago, Beakman said:

You guys still holding on?

I am, but it is obv format specific...for me, in a 16 team points league, there simply are not any better bets.

His stat cast numbers are mixed (esp compared to last year)...he is finding a high rate of barrels, but not quite hitting it as hard as he is capable of. He isn't chasing and sprint speed is still quite high. I can see a picture where he turns it around in short order, and the PT should (hopefully) remain.

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DM is on my team and i'm struggling to hold him but a look on FanGraphs shows Dylan is trying to be more patient this year by taking more pitches and chasing less. problem is he's taking a lot more called strikes so his K% is still too high. His contact % is around his normal but might be hitting the ball straight to gloves (.200 BABIP vs career .289). SEA also been facing some tough pitching vs SF, MIN, and CHW this month. i was hoping he'd break out of this slump @BAL so the HR is the least he could do there. i'm gonna see how the rest of April goes with 11/13 games against HOU & BOS which have so-so rotations this year. thankfully SEA only plays LAD twice.

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21 hours ago, street sharks said:

His K's have gone down since the beginning of the year. I think he's on the cusp of breaking out of this slump.

He has a 31% K-rate and went 0-3 with a walk and 3 Ks today. Hope he gets on a heater soon to hit that 20/20 upside 

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1 hour ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

[...]  i don't know how much longer I can roster him at this point hoping he at least gets back to last years production

At this point, if you missed out on adding Jazz there's prob not many players available that offer 20/20 upside on your waiver wire. But yeah he's looked like a cooked turd so far.

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On 4/18/2021 at 1:31 AM, street sharks said:

His K's have gone down since the beginning of the year. I think he's on the cusp of breaking out of this slump.

 

Maybe in 2022, not this year....

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