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2021 Draft Strategy


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With the ball being changed, seems like Pitchers will get a little bump and power will see a pullback, also COVID still around, 6 man rotation talk etc etc

 

Curious how some are approaching 2021 Drafts, is anyone fading top SP in favor of Bats early and loading up on lower middle tier SP? Anyone going for more of the top SP then filling in with middle tier Bats later ignoring the middle tier SP? Lots of factors to take into consideration so interested to see others opinions

Edited by kmoore1521
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I'm not changing my strategy too much this year. My strategy has always been to come away with 7 hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and 1 closer in the first 11 rounds. I've seen some talk of people valuing the aces higher than normal this year, but starting pitchers always have a higher bust rate than hitters, and now with innings limits and perhaps a higher than usual injury risk with an increase in workload from 2020, I think the bust rate will be higher than usual. I will load up on higher upside starters in the middle and late rounds and hope I hit on a few of them. My bench will also have more starting pitchers than usual this year.

I never spend much draft capital on closers and this year will be no different. For me, there is a steep drop off after the top 12 or 13 closers, so I'm going to make sure I come away with one of those guys. But I won't be looking to draft one of those guys until the top 8 or 9 are off the board. I'll throw a couple later round darts on other closers and hope to come away with some saves from one of those guys. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I'm not changing my strategy too much this year. My strategy has always been to come away with 7 hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and 1 closer in the first 11 rounds. I've seen some talk of people valuing the aces higher than normal this year, but starting pitchers always have a higher bust rate than hitters, and now with innings limits and perhaps a higher than usual injury risk with an increase in workload from 2020, I think the bust rate will be higher than usual. I will load up on higher upside starters in the middle and late rounds and hope I hit on a few of them. My bench will also have more starting pitchers than usual this year.

I never spend much draft capital on closers and this year will be no different. For me, there is a steep drop off after the top 12 or 13 closers, so I'm going to make sure I come away with one of those guys. But I won't be looking to draft one of those guys until the top 8 or 9 are off the board. I'll throw a couple later round darts on other closers and hope to come away with some saves from one of those guys. 

 

I agree that pitchers will bust at a higher rate and many will be limited from tapping into elite upside. It will be tough for really any pitcher to break 200 innings this year.

From a roto league perspective, it will be harder than ever to hit your inning limits, so I will be targeting one or two boring guys that have a good chance of racking innings, while also probably rostering an extra pitcher than normally.

On closers, I will be targeting roles more than stats due to the high uncertainty of performance this year. I'll bet more on closer roles sticking than statistics sticking. Guys like Kimbrel, Holland, Montero, Leclerc, Soria. None of these guys are high priced and have a secure role as closer.

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In leagues where having two-start SP’s is important such as points leagues, stud SP’s and older veterans could have considerably greater value. They’re less likely to get taken out of their routine to pitch every sixth day, so they’re more likely to still get two starts, but they’re also more valuable if nobody is getting two starts anymore and streaming fringe SP’s on two-start weeks is neutralized. Vets are less likely to get babied. Guys like Morton aren’t going to be worried about saving their arm when they’re putting it all out on the table every turn.  Something to really think about for points leagues. Stock down on guys like Dustin May...stock up on guys like Morton. 

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8 hours ago, meh2 said:

I'm not changing my strategy too much this year. My strategy has always been to come away with 7 hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and 1 closer in the first 11 rounds. I've seen some talk of people valuing the aces higher than normal this year, but starting pitchers always have a higher bust rate than hitters, and now with innings limits and perhaps a higher than usual injury risk with an increase in workload from 2020, I think the bust rate will be higher than usual. I will load up on higher upside starters in the middle and late rounds and hope I hit on a few of them. My bench will also have more starting pitchers than usual this year.

I never spend much draft capital on closers and this year will be no different. For me, there is a steep drop off after the top 12 or 13 closers, so I'm going to make sure I come away with one of those guys. But I won't be looking to draft one of those guys until the top 8 or 9 are off the board. I'll throw a couple later round darts on other closers and hope to come away with some saves from one of those guys. 

 

 

Agreed on not valuing closers highly.  Probably 30-50% of closers on your draft day won't be the closer for their team 2/3rds through the season.  If you pay attention to free agency and the news you can scoop them up every couple weeks in general.  Won't be top 10 guys, but they will get you saves.  In 2019 I probably drafted 2 RPs who were RP20+ and just picked players up as the season went on and ended the year with 4 or 5 closers.

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if starters will have less IP versus a more "normal" year, maybe getting two good closers helps with ratios more than it would in a "normal" year. Just my .02 on how I value closers this year. Mind you, this is a 12 team keep 5 league so we are effectively starting with pick 61 in a league where closers are never kept. The only one kept this year is going to be Hader.  Something to think about if you feel you like you can wait somewhere else. 

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