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  • tonycpsu changed the title to J.D. Martinez 2021 Outlook
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Goldy and Martinez are the same age, while Rizzo is about 2 years younger.  In addition, all the benchmarks you set for Martinez also tanked for Rizzo and Goldy had a power outage and a dip in EV.  An

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/02/jd-martinez-boston-red-sox-dh-chip-on-shoulder-is-back-entering-2021-i-wasnt-really-prepared-for-last-year.html Tries to explain why his 2020 was so bad he

Video tape is allowed back again so J.D. will be back again with it.

Writing off 2020 as a slump. The guy hasn't hit under 300 since 2015, with a 162gm avg of 90/34/107/.290. Take away 2020 and there isn't concern. Sure, 2019 was a slight decline off of his monster 2018 season, but I think he should still be a lock for 35/95/.295. If he is still on the board in the 6th/7th rounds (ESPN has his adp at 68 at this time) then I have no problem taking him around then. 

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I’d normally be all in on a skilled hitter who had a down year (especially a shortened one)

 

But what is shying me away from buying into a bounce back is his age and that he has been on a steady albeit small decline each year the last few years.
 

I suppose he could have a resurgent season like Josh Donaldson in 2019 but more often than not it’s just age catching up to guys and that’s what the underlying metrics seem to indicate to me

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3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

But what is shying me away from buying into a bounce back is his age and that he has been on a steady albeit small decline each year the last few years.
 

I suppose he could have a resurgent season like Josh Donaldson in 2019 but more often than not it’s just age catching up to guys and that’s what the underlying metrics seem to indicate to me

I mean, he is 33, is that old? Also, he posted career highs in RBI's and TB in 2018, along with 2 shy of his career best in HR's as well. Not like 2018 was that long ago..

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Is he on the backside of his career? Sure, but I wouldn't put him out to pasture as an aging star just yet. Until last year, he'd topped .300 in five of his last six seasons, the lone exception being a .282 ba in 2015. He may not reach 40 HR again, but I'd put him at a decent bet to reach 30-35 and have around 100 RBI to go with a good BA. There's value in that. 

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Completely agree with what @MSkibisky @Sidearmer @The Big Bat Theory are saying. He’s being undervalued right now because of a short year where players experienced the type of adversity they never had before with the pandemic. Add the fact that MLB took away on field video and that creates a very difficult situation for any player but particularly for a guy who studies video after every at bat like JD. 

That makes it much more difficult for a player who’s slumping to get out of it. One prolonged slump last year and half the season is gone. I’m all in at his price this year. 

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1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:

Completely agree with what @MSkibisky @Sidearmer @The Big Bat Theory are saying. He’s being undervalued right now because of a short year where players experienced the type of adversity they never had before with the pandemic. Add the fact that MLB took away on field video and that creates a very difficult situation for any player but particularly for a guy who studies video after every at bat like JD. 

That makes it much more difficult for a player who’s slumping to get out of it. One prolonged slump last year and half the season is gone. I’m all in at his price this year. 

I can see a lot of guys that have owned him before at any point during his 3 really good years to be enamored with him.   He's also appearing in pretty much every "sleeper" article.  Gonna be a bit of a game of chicken with him.  If you want him you'll likely have to reach.

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11 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

I can see a lot of guys that have owned him before at any point during his 3 really good years to be enamored with him.   He's also appearing in pretty much every "sleeper" article.  Gonna be a bit of a game of chicken with him.  If you want him you'll likely have to reach.

Agreed, although I don't consider his current ADP a reach at all. 

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Yeah I agree that the more savvy leagues will probably not be fading JD as much as casual leagues might. And that means you’re probably going to need to reach a bit if you want him which I’m ok with at his current adp. 

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49 minutes ago, jb_power said:

not sure on his ADP as I tend not to look at but J.D. went with the 81st pick last night in my NFBC draft

 

 Not bad in my opinion. He’s going 95th on average in nfbc drafts over the last month. In fantasypros consensus he’s at 88 so that’s right around where he’s been going. 

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I'd take him a round or two earlier honestly, and am hoping to do so.

Anything beyond 7th round is crazy good value imo, especially players couldn't review their at-bats (which is he cites is the reason for his struggles), but is is now allowed once again.

Baez is another guy who had similar complaints about video review that I'm eyeing a discount on.

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I'm in ESPN format and he is only DH eligible, thats slightly making me shy away. Will he gain OF eligibility soon?

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The videotape excuse is silly. His EV, WRC+, SLG and ISO have been in decline for 3 years now. I like the guy but there are so many safer options at this point.

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16 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

The videotape excuse is silly. His EV, WRC+, SLG and ISO have been in decline for 3 years now. I like the guy but there are so many safer options at this point.

I mean if you put context behind it, this sounds rather silly. 2018 was arguably his career year, so naturally everything after is going to be comparably "worse", even if the numbers are still great.

I think there's something to be said for the video reviews when Yelich, Baez (two younger guys) and JD all said that was a big catalyst in their struggles last season. All three are regular .270+ hitters and all three barely broke the Mendoza Line in 2020.

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41 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

The videotape excuse is silly. His EV, WRC+, SLG and ISO have been in decline for 3 years now. I like the guy but there are so many safer options at this point.

I don't know about your last point. He's going in between Muncy, Meadows & Goldy, Cruz, Will Smith, Altuve. 

I don't know that I would call any of those guys much safer than JD.

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43 minutes ago, street sharks said:

I mean if you put context behind it, this sounds rather silly. 2018 was arguably his career year, so naturally everything after is going to be comparably "worse", even if the numbers are still great.

I think there's something to be said for the video reviews when Yelich, Baez (two younger guys) and JD all said that was a big catalyst in their struggles last season. All three are regular .270+ hitters and all three barely broke the Mendoza Line in 2020.

“Career year” is by itself a little silly as a term. The fact is he was worse in 2019 than in 2018 and in 2020 than in 2019. 
 

Yelich had bad luck with BABIP and was coming back from a serriiys injury. I bet that played a bigger part then any video. Baez always goes through cold streaks and his strikeout rate was always high. 
 

Even if you believe the video narrative, what do you expect from JDM in 2021? The projections are not very impressive. ATC has him for a .270/.346/.496 line.

 

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43 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

I don't know about your last point. He's going in between Muncy, Meadows & Goldy, Cruz, Will Smith, Altuve. 

I don't know that I would call any of those guys much safer than JD.

Maybe not safer but there are guys with more upside. Moncada, Meadows, Arozarena, Rizzo, Goldy are all better options IMO.

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2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Maybe not safer but there are guys with more upside. Moncada, Meadows, Arozarena, Rizzo, Goldy are all better options IMO.

Rizzo and Goldy have both regressed as well.  Arozarena you have to pay out the wazoo for and while I do agree the upside of Moncada and Meadows is enticing, both had poor '20 too (although both had Covid).  I like Martinez at his price and I feel the video excuse is a good one.  Yelich has come out and said that was his issue last year.  Any break in routine between at bats and during the game can have a pretty negative affect on a hitter.

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20 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Maybe not safer but there are guys with more upside. Moncada, Meadows, Arozarena, Rizzo, Goldy are all better options IMO.

Arozarena is going almost 40 picks earlier.

Moncada is going about 10 picks earlier.

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4 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

I sorta like him at his current asking price.

I also sorta like Money, Tacos, and Megan Fox. I'm jumping all over him at his current ADP.

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