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Freddy Peralta 2021 Outlook


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Peralta threw three above average type of pitches last season - FB, CV, and SL; all pitches resulted in below 90 exit velocity. Peralta's four-seamer was a Money Pitch in 2020 with a 44% zone rate, 47

Similar to Burnes, the man Ks folks at an elite rate. Similar to Burnes, he has a new pitch which is unlocking his whole arsenal. Similar to Burnes, the potential drawback was potential command issues

considering what thread we're in you can probably guess who it is lol

Peralta seems like he is being put through the paces in Spring Training to see if they want him in the rotation ... no?

I drafted him as a reliever, but judging from this last start it seems like they are trying to figure out if he's one of the top five SPs on the team ...

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Peralta seems like he is being put through the paces in Spring Training to see if they want him in the rotation ... no?

I drafted him as a reliever, but judging from this last start it seems like they are trying to figure out if he's one of the top five SPs on the team ...

Yeah they definitely are...and Manger CC has said as much too. He is one of their top starters imo. After the 2 near aces (Woodruff and Burnes) there are mostly question marks. Presumptive #3 is Houser, who is really more of a generic mid rotation type, Anderson who can eat some innings in between IL stints and a very erratic Lindblom who looks like a bust to me--but can at least miss some bats in shorter stints. Then there are others like Lauer and Jordan Zimmermann--who will likely both start in AAA and a few non flashy prospects like Ashby and Zack Brown waiting in the wings.

I think this bullpen is very close to elite, and it isn't just Hader and Devin Williams, they are stacked with many lesser known others. Freddy is still very much improving and I think ends up being pretty useful as a 5-6 IP starter for the Crew.

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3 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

Ok fellas, what's a reasonable line for Peralta if he tosses say, 140 innings?

I don't know if he hits 140 innings, but I could see 3.9 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 160 K if he does.  Obviously his numbers will take a step back going from relief to starting, and how good his command is, as well as if he has a decent third pitch will dictate things.

There is upside for more, but also a real downside of him struggling 2nd/3rd time through the order and going back to the pen.

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10 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

I don't know if he hits 140 innings, but I could see 3.9 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 160 K if he does.  Obviously his numbers will take a step back going from relief to starting, and how good his command is, as well as if he has a decent third pitch will dictate things.

There is upside for more, but also a real downside of him struggling 2nd/3rd time through the order and going back to the pen.

 

140 innings?  So, like 22-25 starts?  Sounds aggressive ... but possible (he'll be a major injury risk candidate next year if so).  

3.6969 ERA, 1.2275 WHIP, 170-175 Ks.

**If Peralta comes out breathing fire and throws up 2-3 starts with ridiculous K numbers early, you want to maybe consider packaging him while he's red-hot and getting a premier bat upgrade.  By the time the trade is accepted and processed you might have gotten 4-5 starts out of him.

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5 minutes ago, Overlord said:

 

140 innings?  So, like 22-25 starts?  Sounds aggressive ... but possible (he'll be a major injury risk candidate next year if so).  

3.5 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 170-175 Ks.

That is like his 95th percentile outcome this year.

That projection is basically the industry consensus projection for Corbin Burnes.  If the argument he is as good or better than Burnes this year, that is interesting, but I will take the under on that.   A 4+ ERA with a ton of strikeouts is useful, and def. somebody to look at for your 5th or 6th pitcher.

 

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Interesting when I look up Peralta's MLB stats as a starter, that going through the order a 2nd/3rd time was generally better numbers then the 1st time threw an order.  I looked a little deeper into 2019, and his starts seemed to be 3-4 innings often, where he would give up 2-3 ER in the first inning and then settle down a bit.

This is less a situation where he sees the order a 2nd/3rd time and they tee off, but a situation when he would get lit up in one inning, and then settle down a little the next inning.

This was surprising, because my initial guess was he was seeing a lineup a second time and getting knocked around, but the opposite feels true.

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4 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

Interesting when I look up Peralta's MLB stats as a starter, that going through the order a 2nd/3rd time was generally better numbers then the 1st time threw an order.  I looked a little deeper into 2019, and his starts seemed to be 3-4 innings often, where he would give up 2-3 ER in the first inning and then settle down a bit.

This is less a situation where he sees the order a 2nd/3rd time and they tee off, but a situation when he would get lit up in one inning, and then settle down a little the next inning.

This was surprising, because my initial guess was he was seeing a lineup a second time and getting knocked around, but the opposite feels true.

That seems to persist in 2020 with relief outings. Looking at game logs, there were 4 out of 14 relief appearances that did most the damage:

8/20 (@MIN), 8/27 (vCIN), 8/31 (vPIT), 9/27 (@STL)
- 6.1 IP; 2.75 K/BB; 12.80 ERA; 2.37 WHIP (2 HR's)

All other relief appearances (10)
- 20 IP; 5.5 K/BB; 0.00 ERA; 0.70 WHIP (0 HR's)

Peralta's starter innings are also heavily biased toward the beginning of his career, when he's still learning how to reduce walks (2018 - age 21/22) and HR's (2019 - age 22/23). Here's to hoping he's a truly different pitcher now in his age 24/25 season.

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Really tossing that slider a bunch today, I have seen him swinging K Abreu 2x and freeze Moncada cold with it on a 3rd strike call. Really good tilt to the pitch, has to be very high spin on it too. Collins wall scrapped a HR on a low/away FA, but he has since set down 8 in a row.

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17 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Really tossing that slider a bunch today, I have seen him swinging K Abreu 2x and freeze Moncada cold with it on a 3rd strike call. Really good tilt to the pitch, has to be very high spin on it too. Collins wall scrapped a HR on a low/away FA, but he has since set down 8 in a row.

That slider/curveball mix looking deadly.

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13 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

He got knocked around in the 6th.  And I think that is going to be the tricky part for him especially without a changeup, facing the lineup for a third time in a row.

Particularly in Spring Training.  

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38 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Particularly in Spring Training.  

True, regular season even stiffer competition.  Before today he has faced mainly A/AA level guys based on Baseball Reference Opp Qual.

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19 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

True, regular season even stiffer competition.  Before today he has faced mainly A/AA level guys based on Baseball Reference Opp Qual.

Doubly true, plus it's Spring Training.

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On 3/25/2021 at 10:11 PM, brockpapersizer said:

He's quite interesting as a flyer with a rotation spot. I do wonder how many innings he can go in a game, but that's be coming the norm in starting pitching.

He has big K upside obviously, but it wouldn't shock me at all if he has 2 bad starts to open the season and is sent back to the bullpen.  Around what pick would you take a flyer on him?  I'm thinking around pick 200-220.  He just seems too risky to take in the top 200 in my opinion.

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On 3/26/2021 at 5:59 PM, Hellgrammite said:

He got knocked around in the 6th.  And I think that is going to be the tricky part for him especially without a changeup, facing the lineup for a third time in a row.

I haven’t had a chance to watch him yet in ST, but I thought he had added a change coming into this season.  Can anyone confirm?

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14 hours ago, BMcP said:

I haven’t had a chance to watch him yet in ST, but I thought he had added a change coming into this season.  Can anyone confirm?

There really isn't any video of it, and I have only heard rumors...not actual reports.

If you watch this video on his outing, he throws mostly sliders/fastballs.  At around 20 seconds, he throws what the announcers say was a curveball, but it looks out of the hand almost like a fastball and has late movement.  I wasn't sure if its a circle change or something, or maybe a faster curve he threw that broke late.

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/video/freddy-peralta-s-eight-strikeouts-x4490?q=ContentTags %3D ["playerid-642547"] Order by Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

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