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Freddy Peralta 2021 Outlook


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He's sitting on waivers in one of my 5x5 Roto leagues and I'm tempted to pick him up.  Looking at his minor league numbers you forget how good he was a AA and AAA.  Not a ton of innings at either level, but his K rate was 12 per 9.  Walks are definitely a concern, but with a young power arm like this the upside if things click can be significant.   

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Peralta threw three above average type of pitches last season - FB, CV, and SL; all pitches resulted in below 90 exit velocity. Peralta's four-seamer was a Money Pitch in 2020 with a 44% zone rate, 47

Similar to Burnes, the man Ks folks at an elite rate. Similar to Burnes, he has a new pitch which is unlocking his whole arsenal. Similar to Burnes, the potential drawback was potential command issues

considering what thread we're in you can probably guess who it is lol

Annoucers said same.  They will probably bring in a reliever and go to 13 pitchers at that point...unless they push Peralta's start due to off days.

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Posted (edited)

What an outing today!

 

Now 13IP 24K's 1ER and 2 W (in as many starts). If he can keep the BB's low I think we really got something here.

 

 

Edited by Jyeatbvg
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On 4/3/2021 at 5:22 AM, dicka24 said:

The K's give us all a glimpse of his upside.  The walks then bring us back down to earth.   

 Lots of  5th inning pulls with high pitch counts if he can't get his walks under control which will cost him wins.

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52 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

In what way is he like Burnes?

Similar to Burnes, the man Ks folks at an elite rate. Similar to Burnes, he has a new pitch which is unlocking his whole arsenal. Similar to Burnes, the potential drawback was potential command issues. Similar to Burnes, he was thought to be in the pen (at least initially) but is blossoming in the rotation. Similar to Burnes, he is a product of what is becoming a powerhouse pitching program in the brewers.

The vibes of Pre-2020 Burnes and Pre-2021 Peralta are very similar to me.

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13 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Is he going to be this year's breakout SP? Similar to Burnes' breakout last year.


I would not bet on that.  The fundamentals of both his repertoire and pitching motion are too different from Burnes.  I think Peralta can be a valuable piece, but you have to realize he is very volatile.  He is closer to Robbie Ray then he is Burnes right now.

The curious thing will be what happens when he faces good teams that don't swing at pitches 8 inches out of the zone.  Right now he has shown me some potential, but I want to see if he can be a top 50 starting pitcher first, and I haven't seen that yet from him.

 

 

Edited by Hellgrammite
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3 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Similar to Burnes, the man Ks folks at an elite rate. Similar to Burnes, he has a new pitch which is unlocking his whole arsenal. Similar to Burnes, the potential drawback was potential command issues. Similar to Burnes, he was thought to be in the pen (at least initially) but is blossoming in the rotation. Similar to Burnes, he is a product of what is becoming a powerhouse pitching program in the brewers.

The vibes of Pre-2020 Burnes and Pre-2021 Peralta are very similar to me.

He strikes out batters at an elite rate, yes. But unlocking his whole arsenal? His arsenal is essentially two pitches - fastball (52%) and slider (39%). He's thrown the changeup just 15 times (6.3%) so far. Burnes throws 5 pitches at >10% and they all grade well. Burnes issue was the fastball getting eaten alive by home runs which he solved with a cutter. Peralta's issue is the lack of a 3rd pitch and walks.

There's some similarities but they're pretty distinct pitchers imo.

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31 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

He strikes out batters at an elite rate, yes. But unlocking his whole arsenal? His arsenal is essentially two pitches - fastball (52%) and slider (39%). He's thrown the changeup just 15 times (6.3%) so far. Burnes throws 5 pitches at >10% and they all grade well. Burnes issue was the fastball getting eaten alive by home runs which he solved with a cutter. Peralta's issue is the lack of a 3rd pitch and walks.

There's some similarities but they're pretty distinct pitchers imo.

Of course, they have different arsenals but overall there are a lot of similarities. The homerun/walk difference you reference come from the same shortcoming: command. Peralta absolutely has the tools to be a top 20 SP if he keeps this up. Seems like savant is classifying all of peraltas breaking balls as sliders but I distinctly noticed two different shapes. The fastball is elite, the new slider looks unhittable, the curve and change are also actually pretty damn good if he finds his consistency/confidence with them. 

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All I know is, I picked the guy to add some rate stats as a relief pitcher and probably drop for a streamer and ended up with a guy who has gotten me more Ks than deGrom and the same as Bieber, and life is good.

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16 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Is he going to be this year's breakout SP? 

Is he legit? Let's look at stats traditionally considered "predictive" (of these, I typically find SIERA and xFIP to be the most helpful).

2021 ERA is .69 (obviously unsustainable over a meaningful sample size)

2021 xFIP is 2.88

2021 SIERA is 3.05

2021 xERA is 1.94

So what does this tell us? Freddy's been lucky, but even if his stats "normalized" he'd still be at a near-elite level. A few of those walks turn into Ks due to better umpiring (Freddy seems to get squeezed a lot ... probably my imagination as an owner) and near-elite turns into elite.

--Interestingly enough, Freddy was actually unlucky in 2020 as he had a 3.99 ERA but a 2.88 xFIP and a 2.81 SIERA. This discrepancy, in part, is why I considered him a tremendous draft day opportunity (I ended up with him for a single dollar).

--SIERA and xFIP are also immensely handy for identifying pitchers in line for a negative regression. The number one candidate I see right now is probably Arrieta. It would not surprise me if he starts getting absolutely blown up. The scariest thing about Arrieta is not only has he been extremely lucky (2.25 era with a 5.05 SIERA) but he's been extremely lucky against the Pirates, a team who without Hayes is trotting out one of the worst lineups of the modern era.

--Due for positive regression? A couple interesting candidates in Marco Gonzales and Madison Bumgarner. Not saying they're pitching well (they aren't), but they've been hideously unlucky.

**In redraft leagues, you'd probably want to move Freddy if you could get "full season value" for him as he'll probably only start 20-25 games.  In keeper/dynasty leagues I can't imagine you wouldn't want to see where this goes.  

Edited by Overlord
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7 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm excited, but tempering expectations because the Cubs have struggled at the dish so far.

This is where I am. Both of his starts have been against the Cubs, so let’s temper things at least for now. If he goes and does this against good offenses, then let the hype train roll. 

I think he gets the Pirates next, so that’ll probably be another nice start. 

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4 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:


I would not bet on that.  The fundamentals of both his repertoire and pitching motion are too different from Burnes.  I think Peralta can be a valuable piece, but you have to realize he is very volatile.  He is closer to Robbie Ray then he is Burnes right now.

The curious thing will be what happens when he faces good teams that don't swing at pitches 8 inches out of the zone.  Right now he has shown me some potential, but I want to see if he can be a top 50 starting pitcher first, and I haven't seen that yet from him.

 

 

Top 50 pitcher is an incredibly low bar for someone with Peralta's upside. Using Pitchers List as an example, the 45th to 50th ranked SPs are Jose Urquidy, Marcus Stroman, Trevor Rogers, Jordan Montgomery, Dustin May and Dallas Keuchel. I would absolutely take Peralta over all of those guys except maybe Rogers, and it's not even close. It remains to be seen if Peralta can keep it up the whole year and add some consistency to his game, but we're buying upside here, not a guarantee. At least that's my take.

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On 4/13/2021 at 12:44 AM, NoHablaIngles said:

Getting real Corbin Burnes vibes from this dude. Absolute unit 

Both Peralta and Burnes strike out batters at an elite rate.  However, Burnes has zero walks (against 40 strikeouts) in 24.1 IP while Peralta has 12 walks in 18 IP.

Yes, Peralta's ERA and WHIP definitely look good right now (probably at least partly due to the weak teams he's faced this year so far), but it's concerning to me that his already high career 4.3 BB/9 has bloated to 6 BB/9 this year.  His BABIP of .222 isn't going to last forever.

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Both Peralta and Burnes strike out batters at an elite rate.  However, Burnes has zero walks (against 40 strikeouts) in 24.1 IP while Peralta has 12 walks in 18 IP.

Yes, Peralta's ERA and WHIP definitely look good right now (probably at least partly due to the weak teams he's faced this year so far), but it's concerning to me that his already high career 4.3 BB/9 has bloated to 6 BB/9 this year.  His BABIP of .222 isn't going to last forever.

The walks are the real concern with Peralta.  You won't have good numbers if with 6bb per 9ip.  Not as a starter anyway.  I think an upside arm like Peralta with big K potential is better served in a H2H league where a bad week gets tossed in the waste basket.  In 5x5 season long he's more of a risk.  The upside is really tantalizing. 

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