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Freddy Peralta 2021 Outlook


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Posted (edited)
On 4/21/2021 at 11:09 AM, dicka24 said:

The walks are the real concern with Peralta.  You won't have good numbers if with 6bb per 9ip.  Not as a starter anyway.  I think an upside arm like Peralta with big K potential is better served in a H2H league where a bad week gets tossed in the waste basket.  In 5x5 season long he's more of a risk.  The upside is really tantalizing. 

His season-long BB numbers are still below average and I'd expect them to remain that way, but it's worth noting that Peralta has now issued just one walk in four of his last five starts. 

For as hyped as he was at the start of the season, I feel like he's flying under the radar just a little bit right now.

Edited by StuckBetweenStations
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Peralta threw three above average type of pitches last season - FB, CV, and SL; all pitches resulted in below 90 exit velocity. Peralta's four-seamer was a Money Pitch in 2020 with a 44% zone rate, 47

Similar to Burnes, the man Ks folks at an elite rate. Similar to Burnes, he has a new pitch which is unlocking his whole arsenal. Similar to Burnes, the potential drawback was potential command issues

considering what thread we're in you can probably guess who it is lol

41 minutes ago, StuckBetweenStations said:

 I feel like he's flying under the radar just a little bit right now.

When guys like Peralta break out lingering bitterness/disbelief from those who could have bought in cheap, but didn't, tends to color analysis.

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34 minutes ago, Overlord said:

When guys like Peralta break out lingering bitterness/disbelief from those who could have bought in cheap, but didn't, tends to color analysis.

Indeed. If his BB/9 settles into roughly league-average, he a bonafide ace. 

Just for context, even with his incredibly wild first few starts, his BB/9 is 3.79. Looking at 2019 stats, that's only a bit worse than Castillo, S. Grey and Nola from that year, all of whom were top 20 in SP WAR. Cherry-picking a bit, but it shows that supremely talented pitchers can live and thrive with that level of control. 

Of course, the blowup risk is high. But on the other hand, there are guys like Scherzer who had several wild seasons before figuring something new out...

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, StuckBetweenStations said:

Indeed. If his BB/9 settles into roughly league-average, he a bonafide ace. 

Just for context, even with his incredibly wild first few starts, his BB/9 is 3.79. Looking at 2019 stats, that's only a bit worse than Castillo, S. Grey and Nola from that year, all of whom were top 20 in SP WAR. Cherry-picking a bit, but it shows that supremely talented pitchers can live and thrive with that level of control. 

Of course, the blowup risk is high. But on the other hand, there are guys like Scherzer who had several wild seasons before figuring something new out...

Until Peralta's been this good (or close to it) for 2-3 years there is literally no analysis that will matter to those who failed to nab him in the last round of their draft or for a dollar at auction.

Edited by Overlord
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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Flirted with a no-no tonight, ultimately giving up a single to Nick Ahmed on his 109th and final pitch to finish with 9ks in 7.1 ip. He's been a true ace all season, striking out 7 or more in every complete start he's made after his opening 2 inning, 6k outing to begin the season. He was undrafted or a late round pick in many leagues, despite having 47ks in only 29 IP last year and good numbers, he just flew in under the radar.  He's a lock to strike out well over 200 batters and should continue to be excellent going forward. 

Nonetheless, this really feels like the ultimate sell high moment, especially since he was so cheap to begin with-he figures to tire somewhat in the 2nd half, and he simply has to regress from here, so it might not be a bad idea to see what you can get for him after this start. You could see what a bind he had Craig Counsell in as his pitch count got up there, I think Counsell wanted him to give up a hit worse than the Dbacks wanted to get one. Freddy has been as consistent a starter as there is out there, so you can almost name your price if you have other needs and can afford to lose him.

Edited by Richard Kimble
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What are we thinking his innings limit is this year?

Right now hes on pace for about 180. I'm sure he wont get there, but any chance he can get 170? Or atleast 160?

The Brewers have a very realistic shot at the playoffs, and Freddy would be an important factor in them making a run. Interested to see how they manage him as the season progresses.

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On 6/5/2021 at 1:59 AM, Overlord said:

Nobody is giving you anything close to fair value for Freddy cause of the bitterness over not having been the one to snag him the last round.

[...] I definitely think you can sell high. [...] with guys like him I worry about how much they can contribute in the final month of the season (fantasy playoffs).

Edited by tonycpsu
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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Dude is on pace for 180 innings. What do they do with him the 2nd half? Thinking of trading him, picked him up off the wire beginning of season. The top RP in my points league. Sell high?

 

2nd half projection? Brewers going to limit him or go all in?

Edited by fantasymad
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20 minutes ago, fantasymad said:

Dude is on pace for 180 innings. What do they do with him the 2nd half? Thinking of trading him, picked him up off the wire beginning of season. The top RP in my points league. Sell high?

 

2nd half projection? Brewers going to limit him or go all in?

Anyone else think they keep rolling with the 6 man rotation the rest of the year to keep Burnes Woodruff Peralta going until Sept? 

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9 minutes ago, fantasymad said:

Anyone else think they keep rolling with the 6 man rotation the rest of the year to keep Burnes Woodruff Peralta going until Sept? 

For the near term, certainly. Lauer has surprisingly shown competent lately. Hauser eats innings ok and BA can pitch 5 innings in between IL stints. They will also add a SP in the next few weeks.

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51 minutes ago, fantasymad said:

Dude is on pace for 180 innings. What do they do with him the 2nd half? Thinking of trading him, picked him up off the wire beginning of season. The top RP in my points league. Sell high?

 

2nd half projection? Brewers going to limit him or go all in?

Brewers are going all in. Woody Burny and Pearlta are going to throw some innings. If they can all throw them 7 innings per start the brewers are in a good place with Williams finally coming into his own and hader to close it.

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7 hours ago, fantasymad said:

Dude is on pace for 180 innings. What do they do with him the 2nd half? Thinking of trading him, picked him up off the wire beginning of season. The top RP in my points league. Sell high?

 

2nd half projection? Brewers going to limit him or go all in?

I know this will be a very unpopular opinion on this page with a bunch of Peralta owners, but my opinion is to sell high on him.  The Brewers are in the race, so I think an outright shutdown is unlikely (although it can still happen as evidenced by Stephen Strasburg in 2012).   I think the more likely scenario is the Brewers going to a 6 man rotation as others have mentioned.  I do have to wonder if he's going to lose some effectiveness in the second half given that he's never thrown more than 120 innings in any season, including minors. 

Also, Peralta's biggest weakness going into the season was his control with a career 4.1 BB/9.  Fantasy owners have obviously made an enormous profit from Peralta this year (he's currently the #4 ranked SP in my league behind deGrom, Woodruff, and Gausman), but it's worth pointing out that Peralta hasn't improved his walk rate at all this year: currently sitting at an identical 4.1 BB/9 this year.

There's been quite a bit of good fortune in Peralta's 2.23 ERA; his FIP is 3.11 and his xFIP is 3.62.  Peralta will obviously get you strikeouts, but unless he improves his control, I wouldn't consider him a top 10 or even a top 15 pitcher rest of the season, despite his current #4 rankings.  I think in most leagues you can probably sell for a him for a top 75 player, which I don't think he'll be rest of the season.  Personally, I just traded him for Jose Abreu in one league two weeks.. 

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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

I know this will be a very unpopular opinion on this page with a bunch of Peralta owners, but my opinion is to sell high on him.  The Brewers are in the race, so I think an outright shutdown is unlikely (although it can still happen as evidenced by Stephen Strasburg in 2012).   I think the more likely scenario is the Brewers going to a 6 man rotation as others have mentioned.  I do have to wonder if he's going to lose some effectiveness in the second half given that he's never thrown more than 120 innings in any season, including minors. 

He threw 141.1 in 2018. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Lifted after only 50 pitches last night.  Is this going to be what happens all second half to limit his innings without shutting him down?  If so, that's almost worse than getting shut down at the end of August because he'll never be able to get any wins.

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28 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Lifted after only 50 pitches last night.  Is this going to be what happens all second half to limit his innings without shutting him down?  If so, that's almost worse than getting shut down at the end of August because he'll never be able to get any wins.

Brewers are struggling and they could care less if they make the playoffs or not. Give him 6 to 7 innings and he is going to be fine long-term. They most likely are going to do the same with Burnes as well whose spin rate is way down. The Crew doesn't play in a tough decision, so he has a great shot at wins, but if the Cards and Reds become buyers the crew is going to have to figure it out, because this current roster isn't going deep.

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30 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Brewers are struggling and they could care less if they make the playoffs or not. Give him 6 to 7 innings and he is going to be fine long-term. They most likely are going to do the same with Burnes as well whose spin rate is way down. The Crew doesn't play in a tough decision, so he has a great shot at wins, but if the Cards and Reds become buyers the crew is going to have to figure it out, because this current roster isn't going deep.

Huh?

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5 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Brewers are struggling and they could care less if they make the playoffs or not. Give him 6 to 7 innings and he is going to be fine long-term. They most likely are going to do the same with Burnes as well whose spin rate is way down. The Crew doesn't play in a tough decision, so he has a great shot at wins, but if the Cards and Reds become buyers the crew is going to have to figure it out, because this current roster isn't going deep.

1. Brewers definitely care about making the playoffs. When you have 3 all star pitchers and one of the best closers in the game you're a threat to win it all.

2. The Cardinals are without a doubt sellers. They have one good pitcher and he's injured. They're a smart organization and know they dont have the pitching to do anything in the playoffs.

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6 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Lifted after only 50 pitches last night.  Is this going to be what happens all second half to limit his innings without shutting him down?  If so, that's almost worse than getting shut down at the end of August because he'll never be able to get any wins.

He had only pitched 1 inning (ASG) between July 10 and last night (2 weeks), so I'm pretty sure they were just taking it easy on him. You have to expect more than 50 pitches whenever he starts from here on out. The Brewers are in it to win it, and they need him out there. Hes just too good 

That said, while I do expect him to pitch more than 4 innings and still every 5th (6th?) game, I wouldnt be expecting him to pitch too deep into games. He'll pitch deep enough to get Wins, but doubt he'll pitch further than the 6th very often. I would imagine they're gonna cap him at about 90 pitches per outing, maybe he goes further if hes cruising. They definitely dont want him laboring.

Even hes not pitching too deep into games hes still gonna post elite ratios and Ks. Kids a stud

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Everything gregp said above is correct, no need to panic, but expect reduced volume. Many pitchers are in the same boat, but no need to fear this is a Casey Mize situation that will tank Peralta's value. Think about the difference between the Tigers and Brewers, Milwaukee needs a lot more from Peralta.

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