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2021 TE Strategy


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On 3/2/2021 at 1:51 PM, ajs723 said:

So then are we all collectively agreeing that Josh Oliver will never be a thing? He's the only TE on the Jags roster right now. They used an early third round pick on him and constantly said good things about him, he's just always been hurt. 

Could he be a thing on the Ravens?  Probably not, but at least there’s a path to high-end relevance.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Could he be a thing on the Ravens?  Probably not, but at least there’s a path to high-end relevance.

He had 3 major injuries in his first 2 seasons, but he's only 23. Let's see what he can do when not injured.

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I'm really curious how people will value Kyle Pitts - I expect him to be undervalued in my 3-year keeper league since people always downplay rookie TEs. I'm holding Tonyan from last year and will spend what it takes to get Pitts and hope I don't have to think about TE for the next 3 years - he's worth the risk even if I have to pay up, bc I think in years 2-3 he could return overall TE1 value.

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18 minutes ago, trilly said:

I'm really curious how people will value Kyle Pitts - I expect him to be undervalued in my 3-year keeper league since people always downplay rookie TEs.

I think he is going to be completely overvalued. The hype is rife in this one.

Kelce was a 3rd round pick; Kittle was 5th round. Waller was 6th round; Andrews was 3rd round, after Hayden Hurst.
Not saying it can't be done, Gronk and Ertz were 2nd rounders, but the list of first round TEs over the past years is not exactly inspiring: Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, OJ Howard, Ebron. Certainly not bad TEs, but so far not the great ones.

I like Pitts, but the transition from College to NFL is always hard for receivers, and even harder for TEs. I fully expect him to go early in every rookie draft, and it usually won't be me.

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7 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think he is going to be completely overvalued. The hype is rife in this one.

Kelce was a 3rd round pick; Kittle was 5th round. Waller was 6th round; Andrews was 3rd round, after Hayden Hurst.
Not saying it can't be done, Gronk and Ertz were 2nd rounders, but the list of first round TEs over the past years is not exactly inspiring: Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, OJ Howard, Ebron. Certainly not bad TEs, but so far not the great ones.

I like Pitts, but the transition from College to NFL is always hard for receivers, and even harder for TEs. I fully expect him to go early in every rookie draft, and it usually won't be me.

Hard to disagree with this.   3 rookie tight ends over 600 yards in the 21st century.   Same three guys were the only ones to top 50 catches.  

Pretty cool sortable link here on rookie TE stats:  https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receiving-yards-by-a-rookie-tight-end-in-a-season

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

Hard to disagree with this.   3 rookie tight ends over 600 yards in the 21st century.   Same three guys were the only ones to top 50 catches.  

Pretty cool sortable link here on rookie TE stats:  https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-receiving-yards-by-a-rookie-tight-end-in-a-season

Very cool link, but to my mind a slightly different question than trilly asked (I might be mistaken). I read trilly's remark in a Dynasty sense.
In redraft I avoid rookie TEs like the plague; but in Dynasty everyone wants to catch that elusive TE who three years down the road turns into the monster who wins your season, Kelce/Kittle style.

Also, holy smoke Mike Ditka. He petered out after the first 4 seasons but that's an awesome start to your career, especially in a 14 game season.

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12 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

G Everett just shot past both NE TEs for me.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31083585/seattle-seahawks-signing-gerald-everett

Quote

SEATTLE -- The Seattle Seahawks are signing former Los Angeles Rams tight end Gerald Everett, he tweeted Wednesday.

It's a one-year deal worth $7 million, with $6 million fully guaranteed, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.

I think Carroll has a TE shopping problem. The man needs an intervention, and he needs to stay away from NFLbay when he's drunk (*).

(*) but Everett is a pretty good buy, of course.

Edited by Boudewijn
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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Could he be a thing on the Ravens?  Probably not, but at least there’s a path to high-end relevance.

Seems like a huge situation downgrade, no? Andrews is locked ahead of him, and they also have Boyle still. Hard to see that path. 

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Seems like a huge situation downgrade, no? Andrews is locked ahead of him, and they also have Boyle still. Hard to see that path. 

It would have to involve a serious injury to Andrews - Boyle is primarily a blocker, so Oliver would presumably step in as a route-runner in that scenario.

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12 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31083585/seattle-seahawks-signing-gerald-everett

I think Carroll has a TE shopping problem. The man needs an intervention, and he needs to stay away from NFLbay when he's drunk (*).

(*) but Everett is a pretty good buy, of course.

Carroll needs to go honestly. 

Everett being off the board continues to give me more and more hope for my Parham ticket.  All I want is for him to get to the season with the starting role and then whatever happens happens. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I think he is going to be completely overvalued. The hype is rife in this one.

Kelce was a 3rd round pick; Kittle was 5th round. Waller was 6th round; Andrews was 3rd round, after Hayden Hurst.
Not saying it can't be done, Gronk and Ertz were 2nd rounders, but the list of first round TEs over the past years is not exactly inspiring: Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, OJ Howard, Ebron. Certainly not bad TEs, but so far not the great ones.

I like Pitts, but the transition from College to NFL is always hard for receivers, and even harder for TEs. I fully expect him to go early in every rookie draft, and it usually won't be me.

Fair points - I'm probably biased because the last time I went this route, I had a good experience - I grabbed Engram for $1 in my auction during his rookie season and won the title that season. My league seems to consistently undervalue young players and I've been able to capitalize on that - I snagged AJ Brown at $1, and just last year paid $2 for Jefferson and Claypool in my auctions. The auction format allows for much more nuanced valuations vs. a draft, bc I do agree he's likely to be overvalued in a rookie draft based on what I've seen thus far.

The glory year Gronk/Kelce types have gone between $30-40, so my thinking is that I could probably still snag Pitts for $8-10 and hope for the value to really come in the outer years.

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Everett in Seattle's a middle of the road destination for me.   Russ's TE's combined to do pretty well in 2019, but 2020 was an afterthought for receiving there if you weren't DK or Lockett.    Wide range of outcomes here, so if I do take him, I want it to be low risk

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56 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Everett in Seattle's a middle of the road destination for me.   Russ's TE's combined to do pretty well in 2019, but 2020 was an afterthought for receiving there if you weren't DK or Lockett.    Wide range of outcomes here, so if I do take him, I want it to be low risk

Reuniting with Waldron, along with the relative lack of viable options, is a positive, but it’s tough to invest in any pieces of this offense based on what we currently know apart from Metcalf.

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I must admit I forgot all about Jared Cook, but he's now a Charger so i'm guessing he starts there and Parham stays second banana for at least the start of the season.  Decent floor but low ceiling, I guess, kind of like the Saints version.   

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12 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I must admit I forgot all about Jared Cook, but he's now a Charger so i'm guessing he starts there and Parham stays second banana for at least the start of the season.  Decent floor but low ceiling, I guess, kind of like the Saints version.   

Chargers signed Jared Cook, formerly of the Saints, to a one-year contract worth up to $6 million. 

Donald Parham truthers are inconsolable. Cook, 34, will play for his sixth NFL team in 2021, joining an LA offense that recently lost Hunter Henry and his 93 targets. The Chargers, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, had been a potential landing spot for Zach Ertz. Not anymore. For as much upside as Parham seems to offer the team's offense -- and fantasy managers looking for late-round tight end dart throws -- Cook will be the presumed starter. It was always a long shot that the Bolts wouldn't bring in a veteran to eat up tight end snaps after Henry's departure. Cook will certainly have streaming appeal in a Justin Herbert-led offense. Tight ends combined for a 21.4 percent target share in the Chargers' offense last year. 

Mar 18, 2021, 1:39 PM ET
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On 3/16/2021 at 11:46 PM, Flyman75 said:

Higbee wasn’t hyped in 2020 like he will be in 2021. But yes, after Kelce, Waller, and Kittle, just throw a dart. Lol. 

Hype train last year, Hype space shuttle this yr!! I'll be playing darts.. 

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On 3/17/2021 at 1:52 AM, The G Man said:

Stock up: Logan Thomas with FitzMagic at QB and Irv Smith with Rudolph gone. Both can probably be had after all the big name guys are gone, and both could return TE1 value in season long games.

Stock down: Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Just can't see either one of them returning TE1 value if they are both involved, and in that offense.

Truth right here.

I am all in on TJ Hockenson. No Golladay. No Jones. Who else is Goff going to throw to?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pitts is arguably the best player (regardless of position) in this 2021 NFL Draft class. He's a man amongst boys playing in the SEC and he could very easily enter into the top-5 NFL TE conversation the minute he gets drafted. He's an incredible and diverse route-runner that lines up all over the formation. He can be lined up in-line as a blocker and run a deep post from attached to the line of scrimmage or he can line up out wide and run comebacks. Possesses an inexplainable ability to sink in and out of his routes for a player that is 250 pounds. He's able to shift his momentum like a player 40 pounds lighter. He's so incredibly fluid in the open field. Phenomenal hands in the receiving game. Able to reel in passes with incredible hand-eye coordination and then go up and high point the football with ease. Can make contested catches look routine. Unnatural RAC ability and has ridiculous burst to pull away after the catch. Also has the strength and size to push defenders off of him. He's also a good in-line blocker. He fights hard and has enough ability to hold his own that he won't be a liability as a blocker. However, if a coaching staff uses him primarily as a blocker, they're using him incorrectly. Great top-end speed for a player of his size and he should run very well at the NFL Combine. Pitts is a dominant receiver who has a chance to be truly special in the NFL. His landing spot will determine his true impact, but there's a very good chance we see Pitts off the board in the first 10 picks.

 
I don't watch NCAA football is this a fair assessment ? If so seems like the perfect guy to draft late.
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