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2021 TE Strategy


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15 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Somewhere behind Everett on the Rams is Jacob Harris, UCF. He needs to learn a lot and he looks positively skinny by TE standards (he was drafted as WR), but somewhere in 2022 or 2023 this kid could surprise people. 

Not much use for 2021, but if in future years he ever breaks out, then I won't shut up about it.

By now you probably know Everett is on the Seahawks. Some reason as to why i would draft him are, 15TH round price tag. Flashed some talent in LA where TE isnt too involved plus split time with Higbee. Russ is his QB which gives him decent TD upside. His new OC was a assistant for the Rams last yr, so he already knows the offense.

I feel like he's a decent gamble. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Olliemets said:

A few come to mind for me for the non-top 10 guys. Maybe a few of these guys have started to sneak up, I'm sure a few will by August:

 

1. Irv Smith - Guy jumps off the screen when I watch him, supremely talented with draft capital to back it up. Will be the 3rd pass catcher. He's my best bet for a guy drafted outside the top 10 to finish in the top 5

2. Adam Trautman - Was an athletic stud coming out IIRC, no more Cook, Jameis fed Howard/Brate, very limited weapons outside of MT & Kamara, Vannett as other TE is a blocker

3. Anthony Firkser - Probably worst WR core in the league for WR 2-5 (worded poorly, but I mean that if you disregarded a team's WR1, their next options are the worst in football IMO). Played well last year when Jonnu was out, and even pretty well with him there

4. Cole Kmet - Draft capital, came on towards the end of last year, no more Graham 

 

I'm all in on Irv.

 

 

Careful when you say Irv will be the 3rd pass-catcher don't forget about Cook. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Packers re-signed TE Robert Tonyan to a one-year, $3.384 million contract.

It's the value of Tonyan's second-round RFA tender. The 27-year-old had a breakout 2020 season that saw him post 52-586-11 as essentially Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams. Viewed as a sort of "Baby Kittle," Tonyan was a monster in the red zone last year. He remains a top-end fantasy tight end, as long as Rodgers is back with Green Bay.

May 27, 2021, 6:19 PM ET
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  • 2 months later...

It's been a couple months, wondering where everyone stands on TE strategy.   Here's me:

  • Kelce- fine at cost, not going out of my way to get him in the first, but I could do it once and not sweat it
  • Waller- love to get him around the 2/3 turn and will be disappointed if he's not on at least one of my rosters.   
  • Kittle- nah.  Love watching him play, fear missed games too much
  • Pitts- A lot of fun to draft, but I think the hype train has gone too far and I won't end up getting a share.  
  • Of the next tier, when factoring in cost, I much prefer waiting a round, sometimes even two, and taking Logan Thomas rather than the earlier price on Andrews and Hockenson.  Like all three guys to some degree, but not paying a premium for any of that trio
  • If i am without a TE in that group, the only one I feel is worth chasing at all is Higbee, and that's dependent on draft factors
  • If i miss all that, i'll wait and see what's left at the bottom of the barrell and gamble on what's left.  
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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

It's been a couple months, wondering where everyone stands on TE strategy.   Here's me:

  • Kelce- fine at cost, not going out of my way to get him in the first, but I could do it once and not sweat it
  • Waller- love to get him around the 2/3 turn and will be disappointed if he's not on at least one of my rosters.   
  • Kittle- nah.  Love watching him play, fear missed games too much
  • Pitts- A lot of fun to draft, but I think the hype train has gone too far and I won't end up getting a share.  
  • Of the next tier, when factoring in cost, I much prefer waiting a round, sometimes even two, and taking Logan Thomas rather than the earlier price on Andrews and Hockenson.  Like all three guys to some degree, but not paying a premium for any of that trio
  • If i am without a TE in that group, the only one I feel is worth chasing at all is Higbee, and that's dependent on draft factors
  • If i miss all that, i'll wait and see what's left at the bottom of the barrell and gamble on what's left.  

I was lucky enough to get Waller at the turn pick 3, but outside of him and Kelce I dont have high hopes. I want to love the pick but I have never had much faith in anyone outside Kelce. Hopefully the investment pays off long term

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I find myself waiting til around the 10th round for a TE. Not a greatly predictable position hence the great advantage anomalies like Kelce and Waller are. I don’t get very excited about Hockenson and also believe the ADP of Pitts has ballooned to a point where it is not worth the risk considering the statistical history of rookie TEs. Wishful thinking but the best case scenario for Pitts is that he’s used as a WR with a TE designation. If that were the case, I would think Ja’Maar Chase would have been the pick for Atlanta. 

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Heard on JJ Zacharison’s Late Round Podcast on Breakout TEs that guys who are used in the slot and split out wide have a history of outperforming those that don’t. Something to keep in mind. If trying to find the breakout season Kittle or Waller, go after a TE who could be the number one receiver for their team. Ironically, a prospect like Hockenson is the first that comes to mind being surrounded by journeymen WRs like Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. 

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I'm going to touch on this in a larger write-up at some point, but I'm very much in on Kyle Pitts at the 3/4 turn in half-PPR. I'm thinking of him as a rookie WR rather than a TE; Atlanta have plenty of reason to keep Hurst as an inline TE and shower Pitts in as many targets as he can handle.

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I paid the price for pitts in dynasty, but i am not into him in redraft this year, ill be on team “let someone else draft him at his adp and wait a season”.  
it seems every time i pony up for an elite te, one still falls in my lap in my in person redrafts thats i cant pass on the adp, ans i end up woth two good ones

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Strat: is hockencock there in the 6th? If yes, draft him, if not, draft one of EE or irv. Both their adps make no sense 

I'm seeing hock go in the top of the 5th

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On 8/4/2021 at 9:51 AM, BrianM said:

It's been a couple months, wondering where everyone stands on TE strategy.   Here's me:

  • Kelce- fine at cost, not going out of my way to get him in the first, but I could do it once and not sweat it
  • Waller- love to get him around the 2/3 turn and will be disappointed if he's not on at least one of my rosters.   
  • Kittle- nah.  Love watching him play, fear missed games too much
  • Pitts- A lot of fun to draft, but I think the hype train has gone too far and I won't end up getting a share.  
  • Of the next tier, when factoring in cost, I much prefer waiting a round, sometimes even two, and taking Logan Thomas rather than the earlier price on Andrews and Hockenson.  Like all three guys to some degree, but not paying a premium for any of that trio
  • If i am without a TE in that group, the only one I feel is worth chasing at all is Higbee, and that's dependent on draft factors
  • If i miss all that, i'll wait and see what's left at the bottom of the barrell and gamble on what's left.  

Not touching Logan Thomas. He’s a dnd for me. 

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1 hour ago, markinc said:

I found this article kinda interesting.....reaffirms a lot of what is being said in this thread but with numbers.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/08/offenses-that-favor-or-hurt-tight-end-production-2021-fantasy-football/

It's kinda interesting, but I do think it's probably misleading.
I think most offenses don't specifically target TEs; I think they target their best receivers. If that best receiver happens to be Travis Kelce, then obviously that guy gets the ball.

Remember when Gronk left NE and we all wanted to look for the next big TE who would take over that role? Turned out that without Gronk, there was no Gronk role. Gronk Gronked because he was Gronk, not because he was just another TE.

So... I'd take "Offenses Favoring Tight Ends" with a grain of salt. There may be cases where a promising TE goes to a new team and finally gets the targets he deserves, but most coaches are smart enough to recognise who their best players are. (*)

 

(*) except for the coaches of your favorite player of course, they're idiots and deserve to be fired. Obviously.

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Some random thoughts:

 

Kelce: worth a first round pick

Waller: worth a 3rd round pick

Kittle: too expensive for my taste, given injury history

Hockenson: looks tasty if the price is right (has possibly the worst fantasy SoS of all tight ends this year though, if that means anything to you)

Andrews: intriguing prospect at his reduced price this year

Pitts: can't see him not ending up top 10, but not sure I like his current ADP

Goedert: wouldn't surprise me if Ertz poops his party this year

Tonyan: might be like last year - a few week winning massive games, and a bunch of duds. At his current ADP, that's probably ok

Higbee: good chance of a breakout without Everett this year

Everett: could do well will Seattle

Gronk: will probably continue to be a red zone target for Brady - cheap, cheap, cheap

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