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Kyle Tucker 2021 Outlook


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47 minutes ago, B&F said:

As much as I like KT I can't see his sky high ADP being justified.

I need convincing there is value.

He seems fairly priced to me. Locked into an everyday role and is a safe bet for 25 / 15 with potential for 30/20. With the severe lack of SB this year, anyone that can push 20 SBs and also provide other stats is very valuable. There is some average risk but he's as sure of a bet to be a positive contributor in 4/5 stats. Who would you be moving ahead of him?

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Posted (edited)

The opening is there but can he play well enough to keep it?  He has never been an every day player for a full season.  Even if he does play every day will he play well enough to bat in the top four spots in the lineup?

He is a speculative pick.  Newness factor in play here.  Seems more like a 75-105 pick as opposed to #34.

Edited by B&F
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If he slots into the 7th spot to start the year, he is hitting in the weakest part of their lineup. He'll need to drive in all he can, and be driven in reliably when he gets on. Sure he can move up, but those are some stout hitters he would be moving past. For these reasons he seems priced close to perfection at an ADP inside 40. A good April by Kyle could wipe this comment from the face of the Earth.

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

The opening is there but can he play well enough to keep it?

Who would he lose it to? The Astros are already starting Myles Straw in center. Their OF bench consists of Steven Souza and Chas McCormick.

I agree that his ADP might be too high, but there's almost no chance he loses playing time.

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3 hours ago, B&F said:

The opening is there but can he play well enough to keep it?  He has never been an every day player for a full season.  Even if he does play every day will he play well enough to bat in the top four spots in the lineup?

He is a speculative pick.  Newness factor in play here.  Seems more like a 75-105 pick as opposed to #34.

Why wouldn't he play? The OF depth is awful. He's young and fresh, I'd actually expect him to be at the top of the PA leaderboard this year. Yordan can only DH and has 2 bum knees, Brantley is injury prone and old himself, then after that its guys like Myles Straw, Steven Souza Jr., and Aledmys Diaz who are left - none of these guys are taking PA's from Tucker.

He also has not been an every da player because of Houston having a crowded OF, not because of talent of injury concerns. He played everyday in 2018 and 2019, just most of that came in AAA.

There is definitely some speculation but that's baked into the price already. If he actually plays to his expected numbers he will probably be a top 25 player and will be a second round pick next year.

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On 3/2/2021 at 2:35 PM, Sidearmer said:

He seems fairly priced to me. Locked into an everyday role and is a safe bet for 25 / 15 with potential for 30/20. With the severe lack of SB this year, anyone that can push 20 SBs and also provide other stats is very valuable. There is some average risk but he's as sure of a bet to be a positive contributor in 4/5 stats. Who would you be moving ahead of him?

He’s extremely overpriced. 
 

https://razzball.com/kyle-tucker-2021-fantasy-schmohawk/

 

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From AJ Mass:

Why exactly are we all buying in on Kyle Tucker? ... In his first 88 plate appearances last season, he hit .193 and in his last 81 PAs, he scraped out a .243 average. In between, he had a stellar 59 PAs where he hit .423 with five homers and 24 RBI (kick-started by a pair of games at Coors Field). Take that slice out of his 2020 and we're looking at around a 40-game sample of a guy who hit .217 with four home runs and 18 RBI. This is top 50?

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/30984958/fantasy-baseball-roundtable-which-prominent-player-avoid-all-costs

Edited by crafty
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9 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

The projection systems disagree:

image.png.b47510aab5cc6eb94780ffc1df0e1201.png

The weakest of those projections (THE BAT) is still a top 50 season.

Also worth noting, his ADP of 29 is only at NFBC, which run mostly best balls so players are going for upside. His ADP on other sites are considerably lower:

Yahoo!: 37
ESPN: 33
Fantrax: 36

These seem fair to me based on he potential upside, as well as the solid floor of everyday ABs in a good lineup with power and speed.

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7 hours ago, crafty said:

From AJ Mass:

Why exactly are we all buying in on Kyle Tucker? ... In his first 88 plate appearances last season, he hit .193 and in his last 81 PAs, he scraped out a .243 average. In between, he had a stellar 59 PAs where he hit .423 with five homers and 24 RBI (kick-started by a pair of games at Coors Field). Take that slice out of his 2020 and we're looking at around a 40-game sample of a guy who hit .217 with four home runs and 18 RBI. This is top 50?

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/30984958/fantasy-baseball-roundtable-which-prominent-player-avoid-all-costs

Guy put up really good numbers in the minors and has always been a high pedigree prospect.  I've always been in on him,.  I recommended  him last year.  AJ Mass evaluates players in a weird way IMO, definitely has some interesting takes.  Projections could be wrong, but this could be a key breakout guy in a good lineup with good HR/SB totals.  

 

 

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Guy put up really good numbers in the minors and has always been a high pedigree prospect.  I've always been in on him,.  I recommended  him last year.  AJ Mass evaluates players in a weird way IMO, definitely has some interesting takes.  Projections could be wrong, but this could be a key breakout guy in a good lineup with good HR/SB totals.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I didn't realize he was like a 3rd round pick. That is probably pretty high. I think the power and counting stats will be there in a decent lineup but the average could be 250-260 and that it's a lot to pay for steals you cant possible be that confident. 

Still a good player with a bright future who could be great, but 29 adp on nfbc does seem rather high.

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I really love the upside but I just can't justify the draft capital it will take to get him.  You will have to pass on proven core players to draft Tuckers upside.  I'll take upside risk later in the draft.

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  • 1 month later...

Minus the production the first week and a half or so he’s been having a pretty rough go. Underlying stats all look like he’s been pretty unlucky thus far. xBA and xSLG of .280/.580, contact rates are up, still hitting the ball hard and a crazy low babip. I think he’s due for a nice little tear. 

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3 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Minus the production the first week and a half or so he’s been having a pretty rough go. Underlying stats all look like he’s been pretty unlucky thus far. xBA and xSLG of .280/.580, contact rates are up, still hitting the ball hard and a crazy low babip. I think he’s due for a nice little tear. 

I noticed this too. He's been frustrating so far, but nothing to worry about under the surface. Definitely worth trying to buy low where possible.

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5 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I noticed this too. He's been frustrating so far, but nothing to worry about under the surface. Definitely worth trying to buy low where possible.

Do under the surface stats count in your fantasy standings ? This dude flat sucks.

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2 minutes ago, mks said:

Do under the surface stats count in your fantasy standings ? This dude flat sucks.

Then drop him if you own him? I’d rather have a player whose struggling on paper but hitting the ball well than a guy whose struggling on paper and looks like a** IRL to backup the struggles. Let him ride the bench until he heats up, stats will normalize. 

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12 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Then drop him if you own him? I’d rather have a player whose struggling on paper but hitting the ball well than a guy whose struggling on paper and looks like a** IRL to backup the struggles. Let him ride the bench until he heats up, stats will normalize. 

do all those dumb hard hit pct  launch angles and barrel rate stats  tell you which AB.s he is hitting the ball hard and which ones he striking out or hitting weak Gounders to thr SS? If a player is crushing balls in less meaningless ABs tand hen stinking up the place in more meaningful ABs then what good is hard hit rate if he is only hittingyrhe ball hard in ABs that are not high pressure. crushing a 115.3 double down the line leading off a inning with your team up or down 6-7 runs means about nothing. Like today wiffing with the bases loaded is more of what kind of hitter you area NON clutch bum.

Edited by mks
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11 minutes ago, mks said:

do all those dumb hard hit pct  launch angles and barrel rate stats  tell you which AB.she is hitting the ball hard and which ones he striking out or hitting weak Gounders to thr SS? If a player is crushing balls in less meaningless ABs tand hen stinking up the place in more meaningful ABs then what good is hard hit rate if he is only hittingyrhe ball hard in ABs that are not high pressure. crushing a 115.3 double down the line leading off a inning with your team up or down 6-7 runs means about nothing. Like today wiffing with the bases loaded is more of what kind of hitter you area NON clutch bum.

Please tell us more about how to lose at fantasy baseball.  

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