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Last Two Keepers Help Me Decide - WHIR


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12-team 5x5, typical roto lineup (2c 13 hitters total, 9 Ps) Yahoo keeper league 150 GP 1400 IP maxes. Keep players up to two seasons from their draft/FAAB acquisition at the drafted price or winning FAAB price.

Clear Keepers: Bo Bichette SS (3 - last yr), Lucas Giolito SP (3 - last year), James Karinchak CL (2 - one more year left)

Possible Keepers: Richard Rodriguez CL (1 - one more year left), Giancarlo Stanton UT (16 - one more year left), Max Muncy 1/2/3 (18 - one more year left), Ian Happ/Santander/J Walsh, Marco Gonzalez (all 1 - one more year left)

Leaning to Rodriguez, our league pays insane auction prices for closers (top guys $20-27, last third closers $8-12, bottom five $4-8) so locking up two closers for three bucks seems like a steal, even a Pirate CL. But I'm open to suggestion. No lean on the last guy. If Marco got many more Ks I'd keep him for sure, same with Stanton if health were certain.


WHIR - leave a link. Thanks!

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Close call. I like the idea of keeping Muncy's position eligibility because it increases flexibility for the draft. But his price is a bit to high. If it were me, I'd probably choose Happ and Gonzales at those prices. I would stay away for the closer situation in Pit, but you know your league better, so maybe Rodriguez is a better choice than Marco. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ammutch said:

Close call. I like the idea of keeping Muncy's position eligibility because it increases flexibility for the draft. But his price is a bit to high. If it were me, I'd probably choose Happ and Gonzales at those prices. I would stay away for the closer situation in Pit, but you know your league better, so maybe Rodriguez is a better choice than Marco. 

 

 

Yeah I keep a CL at $1 instead of spending $4-8 on a crappy closer without a secure role. Then I put that extra $3-7 to use on my SP5, SP6, and SP7 if needed, because we can bid $2 on a $4 SP and get him when fools are bidding stupid money on guys like Rodriguez - he would for sure be $5-9 at auction - been that way for almost ten years.

Edited by rando
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I like muncy at 18.   Can you load up on $1 dart throw relievers keep the extra faab and then spend it in season?  If closers were going for $27, I’d flat out punt saves and spend the money on more predictable assets.  That’s insane.  Even if you’re right about a closer and he hits his ceiling, you’re still over paying.  

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I would go Stanton and Happ. You are taking a gamble with Giancarlo, but the upside at 16 is really high. 

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With that being said, I very rarely keep closers or pay for saves. You can find cheap saves on the waiver wire, plus how many closers keep their jobs during the whole season..... with very few exceptions

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19 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

I like muncy at 18.   Can you load up on $1 dart throw relievers keep the extra faab and then spend it in season?  If closers were going for $27, I’d flat out punt saves and spend the money on more predictable assets.  That’s insane.  Even if you’re right about a closer and he hits his ceiling, you’re still over paying.  

No - unspent auction funds die at the draft. I had to bid up Karinchak to $2 last year to keep him this year. I paid $3 FAAB for Bichette in 2019 before he had any success at all (same with Giolito). Lots of these guys are in 20 teamer and Only roto leagues so it is a shark fest. 

I do really like Stanton at 16. I don’t like swinging for the fences when it’s that much cash but he could produce 25+. Not sure anyone else on the keeper cut line has ten dollar upside. 

Also this cheap closer keeper strategy is a hedge. I preserve cash but don’t punt. It’s a good way to be top half in saves. Nobody ever punts until late in draft. So you can’t earn many points with just one closer. League too competitive to purposefully take a 1 in any roto category. 

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17 hours ago, rando said:

No - unspent auction funds die at the draft. I had to bid up Karinchak to $2 last year to keep him this year. I paid $3 FAAB for Bichette in 2019 before he had any success at all (same with Giolito). Lots of these guys are in 20 teamer and Only roto leagues so it is a shark fest. 

I do really like Stanton at 16. I don’t like swinging for the fences when it’s that much cash but he could produce 25+. Not sure anyone else on the keeper cut line has ten dollar upside. 

Also this cheap closer keeper strategy is a hedge. I preserve cash but don’t punt. It’s a good way to be top half in saves. Nobody ever punts until late in draft. So you can’t earn many points with just one closer. League too competitive to purposefully take a 1 in any roto category. 

Sorry, I meant “not spend” rather than “punt”.  The likelihood of a $1 guy beating a $25 guy is higher at this position than any other one easily.   I like your strategy,  but would still take muncy over Rodriguez as you’ll have a higher chance of finding the next Rodriguez than the next muncy.

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3 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

still take muncy over Rodriguez as you’ll have a higher chance of finding the next Rodriguez than the next muncy.

Yes, a very strong point. I thought I bought Muncy at a discount at 18 last year, but it sure didn't feel like a bargain! Therefore, I'm half a mind that I can buy him at auction for 16-22, I would pay the $4 premium at the draft as I don't think at 18 he has $10 upside while Rodriguez if he holds the role could earn $10-15 if you're just looking at pure stats and ST DEV, which is how I usually roll. All of the responses have confirmed that these are close decisions and justify doing what fits my league so thanks to everyone for the great input.

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Two of Happ, Stanton or Muncy depending on what you think of Stanton this year and how much you want to go cheap (which in that case, go with Happ).  Not a fan of  keeper closers, esp.  not elite ones even if the auction inflation is high.  Why burn a keeper on a 1 category guy that may lose his job by June or get traded by the end of July when you can go get yourself a cheap 3 or 4 category hitter or starter?  Add in closers are such a complete mess this year that something like half of them are going after 200 overall in drafts (to show you how bad\uncertain they are right now).  If people want to bid crazy prices on that to protect one category let them imo.  Get some middle to low level guys at the auction and just try to eek out 4-6 points in the category.  The probability of doing that is better than the probability you guess right on closers that may or may not be good, may or may not keep their job past May\June, may or may not be traded out of the role at the deadline, etc.

 

 

My 2 cents.

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Rodriguez and Stanton for me.  Stanton is a true difference maker in Roto, yes when healthy.  But even if you get 400 AB's from him, His power alone can carry you.  Add in the 150 GP max, that gives a little wiggle room for 2 weeks of injury.  And I'm picking the $1 closer based on what you said about the overpriced options and race to WW for new ones.  Rack up the saves when you can in Roto, and at $1 he should still get some.  Even the worst teams in baseball win 60 games.  

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