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Framber Valdez 2021 Outlook


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1 hour ago, herschel said:

Net negative for wins and era and I consider 6 ks in 6ip vs Detroit a push at best.  All I’m saying is if he’s really a top 15 pitcher, I would expect more against this team/lineup.

You're not wrong, I was expecting better. Let's call it top 16 then.

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14 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

You're not wrong, I was expecting better. Let's call it top 16 then.

Watching the game, he only really made one bad pitch. If we're complaining about a quality start where he gave us a whip of 1.00, Frambers doing something right.

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

You're not wrong, I was expecting better. Let's call it top 16 then.

Haha.  Fair enough.  A couple of comparable lines from today:

 

McCullers in the second half of the dh - 5.1, 5 hits, 2 bbs, 7ks, 2 er

Corbin @ Mia - 6ip, 5 hits, 0 bbs, 6 ks, 3 er

 

Dont think anyone is rushing to anoint those guys top 20 sps.  All I’m saying is if you are happy with this start, you’re expectations should not be top 20 numbers ros.

 

 

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5 hours ago, herschel said:

Hate to be the jerk who’s disappointed with a quality start, but.....

IF the game was a 9 inning game like it should have been Framber could have added 1 more inning at least  and another K or 2 to his line and it be something like 7.1 IP 8 ks 3 ER 6 hits and a possiable win if the astros score some runs in the 8th inning.  The 7 inning DH rule screwed him from adding onto a QS with 6 ks 6 hits.  Sometimes the tigers beat you has do the Pirates its baseball they have profesional hitters on their teams too. One thing about framber is he don;t do 3 inning 6 er clunkers pretty much ever so IF this is a clunker for him He is doing great

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Love how we're discussing Framber's worst start of the season and it's a quality start with decent K's and WHIP

Yes and he didn;t have the chance to get in 1 more inning in cause the game was not 9 innings. I am sure he pitches the 7th if it was a 9 inning game OR the astros had a tie or lead in this game

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2 hours ago, herschel said:

Haha.  Fair enough.  A couple of comparable lines from today:

 

McCullers in the second half of the dh - 5.1, 5 hits, 2 bbs, 7ks, 2 er

Corbin @ Mia - 6ip, 5 hits, 0 bbs, 6 ks, 3 er

 

Dont think anyone is rushing to anoint those guys top 20 sps.  All I’m saying is if you are happy with this start, you’re expectations should not be top 20 numbers ros.

 

 

I'm happy with 6 games started (not isolating one very good game, today) where he's had a 2.11 ERA/0.99WHIP/& in5 of his 6 games started gave a QS;  he's like top 12 SP in ESPN leagues in the last 30 days.

I am happy with this start (very happy actually) & wouldn't be remotely surprised if he's top 12-ish ROS.

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He’s doing exactly what we were hoping for this year. This was his first loss this year. He’s a 9.00 k/9 guy so 6k in 6IP is in line with that.

Guy has pitched 6 games hes 4-1 with 5QS and 35/9 k/bb and gone 6 plus in 5 straight. 

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3 hours ago, herschel said:

Haha.  Fair enough.  A couple of comparable lines from today:

 

McCullers in the second half of the dh - 5.1, 5 hits, 2 bbs, 7ks, 2 er

Corbin @ Mia - 6ip, 5 hits, 0 bbs, 6 ks, 3 er

 

Dont think anyone is rushing to anoint those guys top 20 sps.  All I’m saying is if you are happy with this start, you’re expectations should not be top 20 numbers ros.

 

 

The ranking of a player is not from any one game, but the expectations for the remaining season. Over the course of a season, lesser talents will have occasionally have better games than the elites. I'm not arguing whether he's top 15 or whatever, but the argument here is silly because it's just one game. It could be argued this being a "bad" game is exactly why he should be ranked aggressively. 

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Not his best start (nor the start before) but the ERA was definitely more than solid and somehow Houdini'd his way to 7 innings played despite a terrible 2nd, pitch count wise. xERA and such still look good, low 3's ERA so yeah I'm not really worried at this point. I'm sure he's gonna have his games with a high walk count and probably one big blow up, but what he does provide is a really good ability to limit the damage and also find a way to power through trouble. Still has yet to pitch less than 6 other than his first start. That's super valuable in my league which relies on QS'. I will say the drop in K/9 is a little disappointing coming off last year but still time for him to get his mechanics worked out on the curveball.

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2 hours ago, Bregatron said:

Not his best start (nor the start before) but the ERA was definitely more than solid and somehow Houdini'd his way to 7 innings played despite a terrible 2nd, pitch count wise. xERA and such still look good, low 3's ERA so yeah I'm not really worried at this point. I'm sure he's gonna have his games with a high walk count and probably one big blow up, but what he does provide is a really good ability to limit the damage and also find a way to power through trouble. Still has yet to pitch less than 6 other than his first start. That's super valuable in my league which relies on QS'. I will say the drop in K/9 is a little disappointing coming off last year but still time for him to get his mechanics worked out on the curveball.

thanks....i havent done a deep dive into his metrics and trying to figure out if he is a sell high candidate or just ride it out?  i know solid pitching is hard to come by, but not sure if the last two games are a sign of things to come with more regression coming in the second half or if this is what it is which is still better than most pitchers out there...

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, herschel said:

thanks....i havent done a deep dive into his metrics and trying to figure out if he is a sell high candidate or just ride it out?  i know solid pitching is hard to come by, but not sure if the last two games are a sign of things to come with more regression coming in the second half or if this is what it is which is still better than most pitchers out there...

 

Personally I picked him up in late May and I think he'll be a top 30 SP for the rest of the season by most metrics. Since I already got him for free, I don't see the need to really sell, especially when his peripherals still show a very startable pitcher and would qualify as a SP3, maybe even SP2 potential if he's still settling in a bit. I think there will be some regression but if that regression is like what we've seen in the past two games, I'm totally good with that, he's still providing value even if it's not his best. 

And the Astros defense is very good, should be even better once Bregman returns, so they'll always help him out a bit.

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1 hour ago, herschel said:

thanks....i havent done a deep dive into his metrics and trying to figure out if he is a sell high candidate or just ride it out?  i know solid pitching is hard to come by, but not sure if the last two games are a sign of things to come with more regression coming in the second half or if this is what it is which is still better than most pitchers out there...

I own a ton of shares but they’re in no trade leagues. If I could make trades I’d probably be looking to gauge interest to try to find someone willing to overpay for him. I’ve seen people in this thread calling him a top 15 pitcher, but I don’t see him that high mostly because his strikeout rate is a little below where I’d want it to be for that tier. I’d have him ranked around 25th for starting pitchers so if someone else in my league sees him as a top 15sp I’d see what I could get in return. Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to own him and I think he’ll be solid going forward but if I could get a good return and address some other team needs in the process  I’d go for it.

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Ace.  Going back to last year:

 

7 IP 2 ER  QS

6 IP 3 ER  QS

7 IP 2 ER  QS

7 IP 1 ER QS

7.1 IP 1 ER QS

7 IP 1 ER QS 

4 IP 1 ER (first game back from injury)

5 IP 0 ER (postseason)

5 IP 2 ER (postseason)

6 IP 2 ER (postseason) QS

6 IP 1 ER (postseason) QS

7 IP 1 ER QS

6.1 IP 1 ER QS

5 IP 5 ER 😠

7 IP 8 ER 😡

7 IP 3 ER QS

7 IP 4 ER

7.2 IP 1 ER QS

6 IP 1 ER QS

7 IP 1 ER QS

6.1 IP 0 ER QS

4.1 IP 3 ER (first start of a season)

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12 minutes ago, herschel said:

Soooooooo....everyone still feeling good here?

Wasn't a good start obviously.  6 ks, 2 walks. Had no walks in the first 2 innings when he was in trouble. No home runs. Probably just a bad day with some bad luck on top.

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7 minutes ago, herschel said:

Soooooooo....everyone still feeling good here?

I watched the game... I will say he was hit around a little bit but most of them were still groundballs up the middle that were barely missed or balls down the line so I am not going to panic after one start.  Im trying to buy where I dont already have him.

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Had a .588 BABIP yesterday, plenty of them grounders that found holes, exit velocity was actually lowest of the season for his games. His pitches were lacking some movement but I wouldn't say this is necessarily a cause for concern just yet. At least he was able to lock down in the 3rd through 5th innings.

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