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Framber Valdez 2021 Outlook


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7 hours ago, disasterisk said:

This post makes it seem like he hasn't had a good start in a month and a half. What even is this?

i think i have been somewhat (fairly or not) critical of framber over his past 3 starts.  over that time, his era dropped from 1.67 to 2.86, his whip dropped from 0.99 to 1.17 and he had 18ks/7bbs.  all i was pointing out after his detroit start (3 starts ago) was that his current pace at that point was not maintainable and that there would be some kind of regression.  i am hoping the regression flattens out and it is not a continuing trend, but i am not super confidant about that moving into the second half.  

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Dude sucks now that he can’t cheat

Umm, his spin rates haven't changed at all since the crackdown. This tired take of everyone on Houston being a cheater needs to be put to rest. Framber didn't have his best command today and also the ump didn't help him out... doesn't change the fact that he's been a stud this year.

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5 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Umm, his spin rates haven't changed at all since the crackdown. This tired take of everyone on Houston being a cheater needs to be put to rest. Framber didn't have his best command today and also the ump didn't help him out... doesn't change the fact that he's been a stud this year.

Umm…no.

Brian McTaggart

@brianmctaggart

Framber Valdez walked nine batters in his first 38 1/3 innings this year. He’s walked nine in his past 13 innings.

(Emphasis added)

 

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Umm…no.

Brian McTaggart

@brianmctaggart

Framber Valdez walked nine batters in his first 38 1/3 innings this year. He’s walked nine in his past 13 innings.

(Emphasis added)

 

Right, his command has been off (and again, the ump didn't help him). What's with the insinuation he's a cheater? 

This pattern of folks praising a player when he's doing well and then dumping on him at any sign of slight struggle is gross. (not specific to you)

Edited by NoHablaIngles
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2 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Right, his command has been off (and again, the ump didn't help him). What's with the insinuation he's a cheater? 

This pattern of folks praising a player when he's doing well and then dumping on him at any sign of slight struggle is gross. (not specific to you)

I agree with the ump being inconsistent - but come on, man.  His control went from elite to total crap - right at the same time the crackdown began.  I’m not going to get into a protracted debate here - you’re entitled to consider that a mere coincidence if you’d like.

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11 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Right, his command has been off (and again, the ump didn't help him). What's with the insinuation he's a cheater? 

This pattern of folks praising a player when he's doing well and then dumping on him at any sign of slight struggle is gross. (not specific to you)

I think I have been fairly consistent with my criticism of framber (last 4 starts) and all I was met with was denial on other owners parts.  

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

I think I have been fairly consistent with my criticism of framber (last 4 starts) and all I was met with was denial on other owners parts.  

Trust us - we ALL know that you've been critical of Framber.  Newsflash:  Last year into this past start, he's still a very very solid SP2.  Whether or not you want to believe this, that's what he is.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I agree with the ump being inconsistent - but come on, man.  His control went from elite to total crap - right at the same time the crackdown began.  I’m not going to get into a protracted debate here - you’re entitled to consider that a mere coincidence if you’d like.

Just like Cole was supposed to be toast. Did he look like toast yesterday?

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32 minutes ago, Words said:

Just like Cole was supposed to be toast. Did he look like toast yesterday?

I mean, I’ve heard others say that - I’m quite sure I haven’t claimed that.  I think I might have even written a post cautioning against taking too much from a rough start against a red-hot Sox lineup at Fenway.

Doesn’t have any bearing on my opinion of Valdez.

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55 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I mean, I’ve heard others say that - I’m quite sure I haven’t claimed that.  I think I might have even written a post cautioning against taking too much from a rough start against a red-hot Sox lineup at Fenway.

Doesn’t have any bearing on my opinion of Valdez.

Actually, it does. Both are cases of people making assumptions of rule breaking based on circumstantial evidence that doesn't really hold up. 

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7 minutes ago, Words said:

Actually, it does. Both are cases of people making assumptions of rule breaking based on circumstantial evidence that doesn't really hold up. 

How has my assumption about Valdez “not held up”?

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

How has my assumption about Valdez “not held up”?

There are too many other variables, too many other potential reasons why he might be struggling. He could have having trouble with the finger. It could just be a slump. He could have a tired arm leading to overthrowing, which leads to poor control. Remember, this is a guy who had to sit for a long time. 

It doesn't hold up because it is too easy to come up with other possibilities. 

Actually, the accusations about Cole made more sense. He's got much more of a track record. 

Edited by Words
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1 hour ago, Words said:

There are too many other variables, too many other potential reasons why he might be struggling. He could have having trouble with the finger. It could just be a slump. He could have a tired arm leading to overthrowing, which leads to poor control. Remember, this is a guy who had to sit for a long time. 

It doesn't hold up because it is too easy to come up with other possibilities. 

Actually, the accusations about Cole made more sense. He's got much more of a track record. 

None of this addresses why my assumption “doesn’t hold up.”  It certainly appears substantiated by evidence.  Nor has it been disproven as a valid assumption.

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

None of this addresses why my assumption “doesn’t hold up.”  It certainly appears substantiated by evidence.  Nor has it been disproven as a valid assumption.

You're assuming cause and effect in a 13 inning sample; and really not substantiating it with anything. And it appears you're also willfully ignoring a major piece of evidence in his spin rates being unchanged. I don't know why you are taking umbrage to that comment; it's spot on

Edited by NoHablaIngles
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I've followed Framber for a while being from Houston, what I'd say is this start was very similar to some of his his starts in 2019, where he really struggled with walks. We called them Framber alerts for a reason. 

He cleaned it up in 2020 which is why he's been hyped. I wouldn't say it's exactly a sticky stuff problem, there was an interesting statistic that shows Astros' spin rates overall have not dropped that much comparatively to other teams, but just gotta hope he's not losing his confidence and mechanics that elevated him to SP2 status in 2020.

People are free to drop, but again, I got this guy for nothing. The potential is there, we'll just see how it shakes out. It's early enough that it's not gonna break you.

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7 hours ago, Bregatron said:

I've followed Framber for a while being from Houston, what I'd say is this start was very similar to some of his his starts in 2019, where he really struggled with walks. We called them Framber alerts for a reason. 

He cleaned it up in 2020 which is why he's been hyped. I wouldn't say it's exactly a sticky stuff problem, there was an interesting statistic that shows Astros' spin rates overall have not dropped that much comparatively to other teams, but just gotta hope he's not losing his confidence and mechanics that elevated him to SP2 status in 2020.

People are free to drop, but again, I got this guy for nothing. The potential is there, we'll just see how it shakes out. It's early enough that it's not gonna break you.

Sadly, this just makes me think they figured out a way to do it and beat the sticky checks. But Framber's performance says otherwise. Whether he has struggled due to lack of sticky or for other reasons it looks like the sell high window has closed. Hoping he turns it around post-All Star break. 

 

Edited by collucho
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Damn it’s been 2 starts without a QS and this thread is in panic mode. I’m not really worried and I think him having a lot of walks last start kinda makes sense from a psychological perspective because he got hit hard and Babip’d to death the previous start.   And his strikeouts are up the last 2 starts even with the WHIP/ERA troubles which is encouraging.  He still has a sub3 ERA and if people in this thread think it’s maybe even justifiable to drop him then he might be more of a buy low for me than I thought 

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26 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Damn it’s been 2 starts without a QS and this thread is in panic mode. I’m not really worried and I think him having a lot of walks last start kinda makes sense from a psychological perspective because he got hit hard and Babip’d to death the previous start.   And his strikeouts are up the last 2 starts even with the WHIP/ERA troubles which is encouraging.  He still has a sub3 ERA and if people in this thread think it’s maybe even justifiable to drop him then he might be more of a buy low for me than I thought 

To add onto this:  If you're in a league where Valdez is dropped, please let me know if an opening exists in your league -value of the entry fee doesn't matter.

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13 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

You're assuming cause and effect in a 13 inning sample; and really not substantiating it with anything. And it appears you're also willfully ignoring a major piece of evidence in his spin rates being unchanged. I don't know why you are taking umbrage to that comment; it's spot on

I don’t think I’m the person “ignoring evidence” here - I really don’t:

“What is somewhat troubling is the drop in spin rates on the fastball but even more so on the breaking balls. As the following chart shows, since 6/21 Valdez has lost about 200 RPM on the breaking ball since 2020, and about 100 on the fastball. Before 6/21/21 Valdez’s spin rate was almost unchanged from 2020. The change is not that much different than Cole’s, especially on the curve.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2021/7/9/22569144/astros-has-the-crackdown-on-sticky-stuff-hurt-the-performance-of-framber-valdez

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Well, I had briefly looked at his spin rates after the crackdown and didn't see any reason for concern... that article prompted me to take a a look at Valdez's spin rates again:

In Valdez's last start before the crackdown, he had Bauer units of 24.07 on his sinker and 37.79 on his curve. In yesterday's start it was 23.76 on his sinker and 36.66 on his curve. That is not a statistically significant difference on the fastball; zero issue here especially considering the shape of the pitch. There is a minor dip in the curve but nothing alarming. It certainly doesn't provide any evidence he was using spider-tack or any of these elaborate sticky substances.

Again, I'd caution making any broad conclusions on the basis of a 13 inning sample. Valdez's main skill in quality contact suppression is still in tact, his ability to miss bats is still there, his issue has been issuing free passes (if you saw the home plate ump yesterday....). He has a 3.65 xFIP since the crackdown, again small sample size, but that is nothing to panic over.

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