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He was just dropped in my somewhat shallow 14 teamer. Digging into his FG page to try to figure out what’s going on here.  Only good news I see is that he’s not walking guys at any alarming rate.

No doubt. The line doesn't do him justice(minus the K's), for how nasty his stuff was. A friend and I were saying he's gotta be tipping his pitches cause there's no way he should be this hittable. Hit

If you can't handle him at his 8 ERA you don't deserve him at his eventual 5.23 ERA!

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6 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

My post was from March. He was a top 12 SP coming into this season. 

I wasn't mocking your post. I had the same feeling. I just wanted to make a poop joke (a #2) based on someone calling him a #1. 

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Watched the game tonight.  He was consistantly at 97 and was touching 98.  He gave up multiple bloops and a infield single that slowly rolled down the line until it kissed 3rd base. Also cant forget it was in Colorado. Considering we spent a high end pick to draft him I would say to give him a few more starts before trading him for nothing or dropping him 

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Ugh, this guy has been brutal. I panicked and took him at the end of round 3 because pitchers were being drafted quicker than I expected. His season BABIP sits at .380 and last night was .529 in Coors. Still, his K/9 and swinging strike % are way down.

I'll keep rolling with him for another month since he historically gets better into the summer. Still, I had him in 2018, so I'm already salty and skeptical. Hoping for better days ahead...

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If y'all started him in Colorado you deserved the ratios you got. I'm still not buying because I think his perceived upside this season is higher than what he's going to hit, but I'd at least check in with his owners. You know somebody out there is ready to rage drop or willing to trade him for Bumgarner.

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He was just dropped in my somewhat shallow 14 teamer. Digging into his FG page to try to figure out what’s going on here.

 Only good news I see is that he’s not walking guys at any alarming rate. His FIP is also a “not atrocious” 4.76. Unfortunately, the Reds probably aren’t trading for Andrelton Simmons, so the defense is what it is for fantasy purposes.

His GB, FB, LD & hard hit rates all look more similar to his 2018, where he was not good, but not this bad.

 Looking at his pitch mix, he’s throwing that change quite a bit more and the FB & slider less. The SL grades out as his only plus pitch. FB has been awful.  Velo down across the board compared to last year, but consistent with 2019.

His O-Swing% is up, so that should be a good thing, right?  Well, O-Contact% is through the roof. Z-Contact% is up as well.  He’s just not missing bats, hence the terrible K-rate.

Looking at his career splits, he’s typically not great through May, little better in June, great in July and Sept.  So, if you’re buying, you may have to just grin and bear it for another few weeks.

So, that’s a lot of info to reach the conclusion that I don’t know what’s going on with him. He’s not fooling batters, getting hit too often and his defense sucks. Guess I could have saved a lot of typing and just led with that.  Would love to hear what more of you think who have been watching his starts.

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I keep reading that his changeup is getting crushed. That has been his out pitch, but he's throwing it less and less. It's a bad combination, but one that can be fixed. 

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2 minutes ago, Words said:

I keep reading that his changeup is getting crushed. That has been his out pitch, but he's throwing it less and less. It's a bad combination, but one that can be fixed. 

He doesn’t have his feel for the change up yet this year.  Until that gets going he’s in trouble because his change is why he’s good, it’s been one of the best pitches in baseball the last two years

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I see him it turning it around at some point this season, which isn't exactly a hot take. Don't know when, but these things usually resolve itself for young pitchers who aren't hurt. 

Pl Blurb

 

Luis Castillo @ COL (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.

 

Well, this was a pretty easy sit and we’re patiently waiting for the moment when we can be excited about Castillo again. At least it was cool to see him averaging 97 mph…? He gets the Giants and Nationals next and even after this atrocity, I can see myself starting him for both. Feel free to bench until further notice if you like, though, that may ultimately be the wise move. I still believe he will show up, though. He always does and you don’t want to miss it.

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1 hour ago, Words said:

I keep reading that his changeup is getting crushed. That has been his out pitch, but he's throwing it less and less. It's a bad combination, but one that can be fixed. 

Not sure where you read he’s throwing it less and less, but this isn’t true.

For his career he throws it 29% of the time. Going into yesterday’s start he was throwing his changeup 37% of the time. Highest of his career.

His FB usage is down, as his his average velocity (just a few ticks, but...)

I do agree though that this may be a fixable problem. He may be leaning more on the change because it’s always been so good, and hitters are sitting on it more. Could be a bad combination that can be tweaked. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Not sure where you read he’s throwing it less and less, but this isn’t true.

For his career he throws it 29% of the time. Going into yesterday’s start he was throwing his changeup 37% of the time. Highest of his career.

His FB usage is down, as his his average velocity (just a few ticks, but...)

I do agree though that this may be a fixable problem. He may be leaning more on the change because it’s always been so good, and hitters are sitting on it more. Could be a bad combination that can be tweaked. 

 

Could have meant he's throwing it less each game?  He was throwing it 40-50% of the time in mid to late April, then down in the 30s, then 28%, and just 12.8% last start.  Could just be matchup dependent flukiness or circumstantial.

The pitch is underperforming, but not grossly so (according to FG pitch values).  I wouldn't think he'd be abandoning it.  His FB is what's getting clobbered.

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1 minute ago, 89Topps said:

Could have meant he's throwing it less each game?  He was throwing it 40-50% of the time in mid to late April, then down in the 30s, then 28%, and just 12.8% last start.  Could just be matchup dependent flukiness or circumstantial.

The pitch is underperforming, but not grossly so (according to FG pitch values).  I wouldn't think he'd be abandoning it.  His FB is what's getting clobbered.

Correct, he is throwing fewer changeups as the season moves along. That he can't rely on the changeup is going to make everything more hittable. When the changeup is good, that fastball is a lot tougher to hit. 

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32 minutes ago, herschel said:

Just IL him already and let him go work on some mechanics while on a rehab assignment....

Or slip him some of last year's balls with the old standard lower laces since some people think this year's higher laced (super movement on it) balls have been causing problems for a handful of pitchers including Castillo.

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Posted (edited)

Fantasy owners across the nation benching Castillo at Coors messed with his head.  You guys have to realize that demonstrating such a profound lack of trust in a young starter has a good chance of wrecking his confidence.

If you want him to right this ship you have to show faith in him and trot him out there for your team regardless of matchup.  

Edited by Overlord
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11 minutes ago, Michael Bluth said:

2 start week next week, you can double up on the negative points!

You benched him at Coors, didn't you?

Michael, what do we always say is the most important thing?

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16 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Judges?

*bzzt*

Sorry, we were looking for: "It's one Coors Field start, Michael, what could it cost, 8 ER?"

You've never actually set foot in a supermarket for pitchers, have you?

**Actual footage of Luis Castillo trying to pitch at Coors last night:

tumblr_nlqpahBEvb1upxwm8o1_400.gif

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59 minutes ago, Overlord said:

You benched him at Coors, didn't you?

Michael, what do we always say is the most important thing?

Breakfast...Castillo must be skipping breakfast.

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1 minute ago, collucho said:

Breakfast...Castillo must be skipping breakfast.

I was going to say family ... you probably were thinking of the things we eat.  

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