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Gavin Lux 2021 Outlook


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On 4/18/2021 at 4:57 PM, hard1 said:

I really banked on lux this year hopefully comes back strong

 

God I hate giving up on him. Got him everywhere for 2B or MI, I have found some replacements but really wanted him to come through, not so sure now....

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, rotoguy74 said:

 

God I hate giving up on him. Got him everywhere for 2B or MI, I have found some replacements but really wanted him to come through, not so sure now...

[...] Sucks thought this guy minor leagues at second base was drool worthy. Maybe he will get it right here in May 

Edited by tonycpsu
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  • 2 weeks later...

I think he just needs a little confidence and to have some fun instead of being so stressed. He looks scared to death at the plate. But after that homerun he looked like his real personality came out a bit, and the entire team seemed happy to see him do well too. 

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Sometimes guys take a little while to figure it out.  

Hopefully this is one of those times.  I mean, this guy has been an uber prospect for years now.  Somehow I suspect that if his bat had run into a few fastballs early on he'd have an entirely different season thus far.  

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5 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Sometimes guys take a little while to figure it out.  

Hopefully this is one of those times.  I mean, this guy has been an uber prospect for years now.  Somehow I suspect that if his bat had run into a few fastballs early on he'd have an entirely different season thus far.  

He has had a start similar to Dustin Pedroia's where Pedroia couldn't hit anything with a bat for nearly a month or two but Tito stuck with him and let him play regularly while the Boston fans and press weres calling for Pedroia to be sent back down to never be heard of again.  Baseball is a game of patience and it paid off big time.  Hopefully same will be true of Lux.

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4 hours ago, collucho said:

SS eligibility on Yahoo. ANOTHER multi effort last night including a grand slam. Still unowned in half the yahoo leagues. Run don't walk.

One more start at SS and he's eligible in ESPN leagues as well - WOO HOOO!!!

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I'm really liking this version of Gavin [F]ux as opposed to the Gavin [S]ux we saw during his month long adjustment process.

He's been pretty damned good in May and the breakout my be real.

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I hate to get people too excited after he hit a GS to the deepest part of... well any park... but he’s 22nd (96th percentile) in sprint speed, ahead of tatis and under ohtani. 
 

This situation keeps getting better and he’s looking more and more comfortable. 

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15 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

I hate to get people too excited after he hit a GS to the deepest part of... well any park... but he’s 22nd (96th percentile) in sprint speed, ahead of tatis and under ohtani. 
 

This situation keeps getting better and he’s looking more and more comfortable. 

Caveat:  I have Lux stock.  In regards to percentiles:

-20th or well below in: Avg. Exit Velocity, xwOBA, Barrel %, HardHit %, xSLG, BB%

- Average across Max Exit Velocity, xBA, K% and Chase Rate

 

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36 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

Caveat:  I have Lux stock.  In regards to percentiles:

-20th or well below in: Avg. Exit Velocity, xwOBA, Barrel %, HardHit %, xSLG, BB%

- Average across Max Exit Velocity, xBA, K% and Chase Rate

 

Can you break down by time periods or see trends looking at this data?  I'm curious if the early season struggles are weighing these down and he's improved recently?  If not, might be a hot streak worth selling.

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11 minutes ago, svdude said:

Can you break down by time periods or see trends looking at this data?  I'm curious if the early season struggles are weighing these down and he's improved recently?  If not, might be a hot streak worth selling.

I was just about to talk about this!  I do feel we're talking about two different players, Lux before and after the Seager injury. For Lux it's in his head.  I'm pretty sure he's played every game since the Seager injury and in May he's batting .324/.375/.500 with 7 XBH and 16 RBI.  The way Roberts has been playing with him has had an impact on his performance and consistancy so I wouldn't take the statcast numbers as they are.  Just look at the grand slam yesterday. You don't see many HR hit there from people with those surface Statcast number.  I'd love to see the batted ball data by month if anybody knows how to do that.

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5 minutes ago, svdude said:

Baseball Savant

If you select breakdown, you can see more.

On 5/16 his rolling hard hit % was 26%, as of 5/23 it is 40%, sweet spot% from 36% to 48%, exit velocity not much change.  

Yes - thank you!

I believe my point above was nothing more than a word of caution. 

Yes - about a year and a half ago he was a top tiered/elite prospect in the game. 

Yes - he's only 23. 

Yes - he has a TON of talent. 

Yes - he absolutely should see every day at-bats.

Yes - we should all be a bit cautiously skeptical right now.

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