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There are a lot of predictions of regression with him but I don't see it.

What am I missing?

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

There are a lot of predictions of regression with him but I don't see it.

What am I missing?

4.05 xFIP in 2020, so his shiny ERA seems a bit fluky. He was pretty pedestrian in 2019 before having success in a short sample (with luck). Probably will be limited in innings, especially being on a team with playoff aspirations. Doesn't have a high K rate. The projection systems have him with a high 3's ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and below 9 K/9. All of these under the hood numbers make his top 70 ADP look overvalued.

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Well yeah, a 2.25 era is fluky for anyone who’s not an elite SP, but his FIP was 3.10 (I understand you were pointing out xFIP). And while the projections have him below 9k/9, it’s barely below. His composite on RC is 8.83/9. 

I’m personally expecting an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.25 with plenty of wins and a solid k/9. And he pitched 165 innings in 2019, so I’m not sure why he’s be put on an innings limit at age 27...at least not anymore than anyone else. 

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Well yeah, a 2.25 era is fluky for anyone who’s not an elite SP, but his FIP was 3.10 (I understand you were pointing out xFIP). And while the projections have him below 9k/9, it’s barely below. His composite on RC is 8.83/9. 

I’m personally expecting an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.25 with plenty of wins and a solid k/9. And he pitched 165 innings in 2019, so I’m not sure why he’s be put on an innings limit at age 27...at least not anymore than anyone else. 

He's dealt with injuries in the past, but maybe you are right I am overestimating the innings limit compared to everyone else.

Is a 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 worth a top 70 pick?

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15 hours ago, 96GOAT said:

He is a solid pitcher on a great team.  He'll be cheap in most leagues.  GET HIM!

ADP of 70 isn't what I'd call "cheap".

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
2 hours ago, umphrey said:

I wonder if I’m going to drop him in a month

I’m hoping he goes on the DL for tweaking his hammy today. Maybe let him reset. He’s been awful. 

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35 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I was really wrong about him and paying the price.

It’s always both tough and fair to admit that - I didn’t see his start, but wow, doesn’t he have to be injured/sick?

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I’ve watch all of his starts, was even in person opening day in Philly. 
 

philly: he pitched well, got into some trouble and got out

nats: his stuff was electric, besides turners homer, nothing was hit hard and he got very unlucky

marlins tonite: he wasn’t good at all, missed a bunch of spots, lived up in the zone, and hit a few guys. 

Besides acuna, No1 is really playing that great on the Braves at the moment. 

It’s going to come around may have to wait for the 2nd half of the season...I’m thinking Flaherty two years ago. 

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Guessing he’s out at least a month with a combo disgraced + injured list stay. Can’t think of a way this could have started worse for him.

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Always a bad sign when you're relieved when a pitcher is IL'd. Such is the case here. Guessing he's out awhile to heal and basically start over.

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1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

How is he so bad. WTF

 

Very sad, expected SP3 and getting SPW (i.e. Waivers)

 

I'll probably hold in my IL spot and give him a couple more starts before dropping. Hoping he just needs to get "the feel" back and he'll be fine. He needs that curve to be on point (think Rich Hill with much more FB velocity), otherwise we're screwed. I'm thinking he'll still provide SP3-4 value ROS.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Nope, on bench but hoping for a good outing!

Ditto. Nats are 2nd in OPS vs lefties and I’m conservative in nature when protecting my ratios in roto.

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Sitting this one out. This dude was a hot mess before the injury. Have to think there’s significant improvement ahead, but I need to see it.

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