Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Max Fried 2021 Outlook


B&F
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, B&F said:

There are a lot of predictions of regression with him but I don't see it.

What am I missing?

4.05 xFIP in 2020, so his shiny ERA seems a bit fluky. He was pretty pedestrian in 2019 before having success in a short sample (with luck). Probably will be limited in innings, especially being on a team with playoff aspirations. Doesn't have a high K rate. The projection systems have him with a high 3's ERA, 1.3 WHIP, and below 9 K/9. All of these under the hood numbers make his top 70 ADP look overvalued.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well yeah, a 2.25 era is fluky for anyone who’s not an elite SP, but his FIP was 3.10 (I understand you were pointing out xFIP). And while the projections have him below 9k/9, it’s barely below. His composite on RC is 8.83/9. 

I’m personally expecting an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.25 with plenty of wins and a solid k/9. And he pitched 165 innings in 2019, so I’m not sure why he’s be put on an innings limit at age 27...at least not anymore than anyone else. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Well yeah, a 2.25 era is fluky for anyone who’s not an elite SP, but his FIP was 3.10 (I understand you were pointing out xFIP). And while the projections have him below 9k/9, it’s barely below. His composite on RC is 8.83/9. 

I’m personally expecting an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.25 with plenty of wins and a solid k/9. And he pitched 165 innings in 2019, so I’m not sure why he’s be put on an innings limit at age 27...at least not anymore than anyone else. 

He's dealt with injuries in the past, but maybe you are right I am overestimating the innings limit compared to everyone else.

Is a 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 worth a top 70 pick?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
35 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I was really wrong about him and paying the price.

It’s always both tough and fair to admit that - I didn’t see his start, but wow, doesn’t he have to be injured/sick?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve watch all of his starts, was even in person opening day in Philly. 
 

philly: he pitched well, got into some trouble and got out

nats: his stuff was electric, besides turners homer, nothing was hit hard and he got very unlucky

marlins tonite: he wasn’t good at all, missed a bunch of spots, lived up in the zone, and hit a few guys. 

Besides acuna, No1 is really playing that great on the Braves at the moment. 

It’s going to come around may have to wait for the 2nd half of the season...I’m thinking Flaherty two years ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

How is he so bad. WTF

 

Very sad, expected SP3 and getting SPW (i.e. Waivers)

 

I'll probably hold in my IL spot and give him a couple more starts before dropping. Hoping he just needs to get "the feel" back and he'll be fine. He needs that curve to be on point (think Rich Hill with much more FB velocity), otherwise we're screwed. I'm thinking he'll still provide SP3-4 value ROS.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
10 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Nope, on bench but hoping for a good outing!

Ditto. Nats are 2nd in OPS vs lefties and I’m conservative in nature when protecting my ratios in roto.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sitting this one out. This dude was a hot mess before the injury. Have to think there’s significant improvement ahead, but I need to see it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...