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Stefon Diggs had one heck of a 2020 season...

127 catches (led NFL). Side note: in NFL history, this was the 6th-most catches in a season.
1535 yards (led NFL)
8 TD's
166 targets  (led NFL)
76.5% catch percentage
In 3 playoff games, Diggs added 20 catches for 311 yards, with 2 TD's.

Obviously with free agency, potential trades across the league, and the draft still on tap, there's room for things to change for every player. But where do you rank Diggs at this point? For me, the only WR's I'd draft ahead of him are Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. 

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Posted (edited)

Historical comps to other players, do not prove what the future holds for Stefon Diggs. But I enjoy looking at historical comps, to see how other players in similar situations have fared. In this case, let's take a look at all of the WR's who have had at least 120 catches in an NFL season. It's a short list, as only 10 different WR's have hit that total (including Diggs). Here's how they did both during their 120-catch season and AFTER their 120-catch season...

image.png.432a8424bfd57444e2d5a40fbf062bcc.png

Not too bad. Of the 13 instances prior to 2020, only 2 resulted in a disappointment.
2010 Wes Welker was only a mid-range WR2, so not terrible, but also not want his fantasy owners would have wanted.
And 2020 Michael Thomas (as we all know) was a massive bust, due to a combination of injury (7 games played, so that was the main issue), punching a teammate, Drew Brees succumbing to Father Time, and Taysom Hill. 

The year after has been very good for the 120-catch WR's. Even in cases where catch totals dropped by 30 or more, we see WR's that were still able to serve as an upper-range WR1. And if Diggs is an upper-range WR1, there shouldn't be any complaining.

Edited by Corleone
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4 hours ago, Corleone said:

Historical comps to other players, do not prove what the future holds for Stefon Diggs. But I enjoy looking at historical comps, to see how other players in similar situations have fared. In this case, let's take a look at all of the WR's who have had at least 120 catches in an NFL season. It's a short list, as only 10 different WR's have hit that total (including Diggs). Here's how they did both during their 120-catch season and AFTER their 120-catch season...

image.png.432a8424bfd57444e2d5a40fbf062bcc.png

Not too bad. Of the 13 instances prior to 2020, only 2 resulted in a disappointment.
2010 Wes Welker was only a mid-range WR2, so not terrible, but also not want his fantasy owners would have wanted.
And 2020 Michael Thomas (as we all know) was a massive bust, due to a combination of injury (7 games played, so that was the main issue), punching a teammate, Drew Brees succumbing to Father Time, and Taysom Hill. 

The year after has been very good for the 120-catch WR's. Even in cases where catch totals dropped by 30 or more, we see WR's that were still able to serve as an upper-range WR1. And if Diggs is an upper-range WR1, there shouldn't be any complaining.

Cool stuff. I was a bit curious why a drop from 120 to 80ish recs would relegate you only from WR#1 to WR#6 overall (and if this drop was due to an injury), but that seems fairly normal.

Over the past years, the #12 in terms of receptions usually had around 90 recs, the #24 had 76 rec, the #36 had 67 etc. So even a healthy superstud could still easily go from 120 to 90 rec and not be disappointed. More concretely, I think this is a fair expectation for Diggs for 2021.

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1 hour ago, PisEdiRin said:

How does Sanders impact Diggs?

Favorably - his addition will make teams very hesitant to roll coverage too heavily in Diggs’s direction.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Favorably - his addition will make teams very hesitant to roll coverage too heavily in Diggs’s direction.

 

Diggs in 2021:

- Fewer Yards than 2020

- Fewer Catches than 2020

- More Touchdowns than 2020

 

He should finish as a Top 3 overall WR in 2021 once again.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Stefon Diggs 2021 Outlook

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