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Damien Harris 2021 Outlook


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Harris should be used alot more this year as the 1-2 down back with 3rd downs sprinkled in on passing situations. White will mainly dominate passing downs though as usual.

Burkhead being gone is a big deal though in redzone/goaline work.... Harris gets alot more oppurtunity in that aspect of the offense along with more overall usage than last year. Harris is a pretty big back so I dont think I see Stevenson being a worry to take pounding work away.........

Edited by SyNdicateZ
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14 hours ago, hard1 said:

I agree rhamondre isn't going to be a threat, coach speak or not. Harris is gonna be 1k rusher this season

Let's not forget about JJ Taylor. Dude has serious Dion Lewis vibes and apparently was one of the stars of OTAs fwiw.

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On 6/27/2021 at 1:05 PM, SyNdicateZ said:

"Harris should be used alot more this year as the 1-2 down back with 3rd downs sprinkled in on passing situations. White will mainly dominate passing downs though as usual. Burkhead being gone is a big deal though in redzone/goaline work.... Harris gets alot more oppurtunity in that aspect of the offense along with more overall usage than last year. Harris is a pretty big back so I dont think I see Stevenson being a worry to take pounding work away........."

A recent article suggests that there will be an open competition at the QB position, which I think helps Harris  considerably. Jones has impressed, I bet it's his job to lose. With Cam they're on the hook for just $3.5M. I thought Jones was a bad reach but I really like everything else they've done! Mid round price for a talented lead back, I'm back in! :)    

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ESPN's Mike Reiss said he sees Damien Harris as the Patriots' No. 1 running back "and it's pretty decisive." 

Last season, from Week 4 to Week 13 -- before he succumbed to an ankle injury -- Harris commanded 43 percent of New England's rushing attempts. The next closest Patriots back (Rex Burkhead) had 21 percent of the team's carries during that span. Training camp and preseason usage should offer some clarity on whether Harris has a lock on the team's early-down role. The Athletic's Jeff Howe in May said Harris and Sony Michel would be a "solid one-two combo" in the New England backfield, though it's far from a sure thing that Michel will be on the team's Week 1 roster. Rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson -- who has impressed with his running and pass-catching skills -- could absorb some of the backfield workload if Michel is cut or demoted this summer. James White, meanwhile, will remain the team's pass-catching specialist. Mac Jones winning the Pats' starting QB job would be a plus for Harris, who misses out on goal line opportunities when Cam Newton is under center. 

Jun 30, 2021, 10:00 AM ET
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Posted (edited)

The perspective I needed was just uttered on the fantasy footballers podcast.

Suppose he gets 90 yards. 

But no catches.

And no touchdowns.

Good running back. Terrible for us.

However, if Cam gets replaced, he has a chance to absolutely murder his ADP.

Anyone know anything about Mac Jones tendency to throw to RBs? Another factor but I'm in if he's my RB3 or 4 without hesitation.

 

 

Edited by Proteus
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29 minutes ago, Proteus said:

Anyone know anything about Mac Jones tendency to throw to RBs? Another factor but I'm in if he's my RB3 or 4 without hesitation.

 

 

Hold on...somewhere I've got a spreadsheet on college QBs % of throws to RBs.    Of course I adjusted based on each  teams play calling and other situational factors.

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Just now, K197040 said:

Hold on...somewhere I've got a spreadsheet on college QBs % of throws to RBs.    Of course I adjusted based on each  teams play calling and other situational factors.

ARRRGGGGGG.....dammit....I accidentally saved over it.

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1 hour ago, Proteus said:

The perspective I needed was just uttered on the fantasy footballers podcast.

Suppose he gets 90 yards. 

But no catches.

And no touchdowns.

Good running back. Terrible for us.

However, if Cam gets replaced, he has a chance to absolutely murder his ADP.

Anyone know anything about Mac Jones tendency to throw to RBs? Another factor but I'm in if he's my RB3 or 4 without hesitation.

 

 


Najee had 43 receptions from Mac Jones last year. Mac will check it down if that’s what the defense is giving him.


He isn’t gonna take off and scramble much.

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Cam checks it down plenty too I believe he gave CMC his first  100+ catch season. He gave James white close to 50 receptions and burkhead 25 last year.  
 

Obviously it’s not game breaker levels but if Harris is truly given the lead back role for the whole year and takes over the burkhead work load I’d assume he’ll get 25-35 catches on the year cam as QB. With Mac?? .. probably similar output?? Idk. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

ESPN's Mike Reiss said Damien Harris is the Patriots' "surefire No. 1" backfield option. 

Reiss said in late June that Harris -- who functioned as the clear-cut No. 1 early down option through much of 2020 -- has a "decisive" edge on rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson and Sony Michel, who might not make the Patriots' Week 1 roster. Head coach Bill Belichick has said Harris, 24, is "off to a really good start in preparation for the season." "Damien works extremely hard at all phases -- certainly his conditioning and training, running game, passing game, protection, route running, catching the ball," Belichick added. Harris' ADP -- he's currently the 33rd running back off the board -- will likely remain depressed thank to New England's famously fickle RB usage. Anything close to a full season as the team's primary early-down banger would make Harris one of the best values in all of fantasy this summer.

Source: ESPN.com
Jul 13, 2021, 11:06 AM ET
 
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2 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

i dont want to hear it or see it when Rham is the top carrier in NE

Well, unless Harris gets hurt, I don’t see that happening. 

Edited by Flyman75
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1 hour ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

Number one option. What does that even mean coming from a team like the Patriots.

Well...

If you are Corey Dillon it means 360 touches.

If you are Ben Jarvis Green Ellis it means 300 touches.

If you are Stevan Ridley it means 296 touches.

If you are LaGarrette Blount it means 306 touches.

Belichick has invested very little in RB and put capital into Brady and OLine, but when he gets a guy that doesn't fumble and can run between the tackles he'll ride him. There is no Brady, so he could look for stability in a strong runner he likes, he obviously isn't impressed with Michel and he's knees are shotty. Harris very well could be the guy, he average 5 per carry and was on a 1100 pace last year in 10 games.

Dismissing Harris because of underwhelming RB corps the past few years would be a huge mistake, I mean they draft a guy like him to resolve that.

I mean you don't like the talent, fine. But to dismiss him because NE RBs weren't good the past few years is just silly and irrelevant.

Edited by StevieStats
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Devil's advocate on that point-  I think part of the reason they've been so inclined to use multiple backs in the last few years is because everyone in the mix had enough talent to warrant some usage.   Ridley dominated carries because he had only receiving backs like Woodhead and Vereen around him.   BJGE never had 300 touches in NE- highest was around 240, and that year it was him, Woodhead, and nothing else other than washed up Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and 2 games of Kevin Faulk.   Dillon had only Faulk.   Blount only had to hold off James White after Dion Lewis got hurt.     I don't think any of these examples saw a back dominating touches when a second capable between the tackles player was alongside him.

My point is, perhaps the plan is to use multiple backs if they have a roster with 3 or them, or more, as they've had in recent years.   The question then becomes....is that what they have right now?    James White alone isn't enough to prevent Harris from having a great year, but are we sure Sony Michel is going to be barely toting it this year?   Add in potential for a Taylor or the rookie to do a little more.   

To be clear, I'm maybe yes, maybe no here- just trying to give a different angle.   

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3 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Well...

If you are Corey Dillon it means 360 touches.

If you are Ben Jarvis Green Ellis it means 300 touches.

If you are Stevan Ridley it means 296 touches.

If you are LaGarrette Blount it means 306 touches.

Belichick has invested very little in RB and put capital into Brady and OLine, but when he gets a guy that doesn't fumble and can run between the tackles he'll ride him. There is no Brady, so he could look for stability in a strong runner he likes, he obviously isn't impressed with Michel and he's knees are shotty. Harris very well could be the guy, he average 5 per carry and was on a 1100 pace last year in 10 games.

Dismissing Harris because of underwhelming RB corps the past few years would be a huge mistake, I mean they draft a guy like him to resolve that.

I mean you don't like the talent, fine. But to dismiss him because NE RBs weren't good the past few years is just silly and irrelevant.

On top of all of this, we all need to keep in mind that we're in a new Patriots era now.  Even if Belichick is still there, Brady is gone.  We can't necessarily draw the same conclusions about how the Pats run their offense, especially if/when Mac Jones starts.

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7 hours ago, BrianM said:

Devil's advocate on that point-  I think part of the reason they've been so inclined to use multiple backs in the last few years is because everyone in the mix had enough talent to warrant some usage.   Ridley dominated carries because he had only receiving backs like Woodhead and Vereen around him.   BJGE never had 300 touches in NE- highest was around 240, and that year it was him, Woodhead, and nothing else other than washed up Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and 2 games of Kevin Faulk.   Dillon had only Faulk.   Blount only had to hold off James White after Dion Lewis got hurt.     I don't think any of these examples saw a back dominating touches when a second capable between the tackles player was alongside him.

My point is, perhaps the plan is to use multiple backs if they have a roster with 3 or them, or more, as they've had in recent years.   The question then becomes....is that what they have right now?    James White alone isn't enough to prevent Harris from having a great year, but are we sure Sony Michel is going to be barely toting it this year?   Add in potential for a Taylor or the rookie to do a little more.   

To be clear, I'm maybe yes, maybe no here- just trying to give a different angle.   

My mistake, BJGE had 241, the 300 year was Cinci.

I hear what you are saying, and I am not making the case that Harris will have 300 touches or near it (only 4 or 5 backs did it last year in the league)... What I am saying is don't dismiss him just because it's the Patriots because in recent years they haven't fully committed to a guy, BB will commit to a guy that he likes, he's done it.

As for this year, Michel is actually on the roster bubble and might be cut. As for Stevenson many rookie RBs have been buried this first year, including Harris himself.

Not saying it will happen, just saying it is a possibility and to not dismiss it because of Patriots.

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9 hours ago, ZappB said:

"...  We can't necessarily draw the same conclusions about how the Pats run their offense, especially if/when Mac Jones starts."

Not really sure about the perceived uncertainty, with what they want to do &/or what Mac Jones is. They're still going to be about balance & running the ball, that's not changing. Being the 5th QB off the board with the 15th overall selection, I don't know about that part. They didn't get an athlete, they didn't even get a cannon. Not to compare but like Brady, what they did get was a guy that's very adept at reading coverages, has sound mechanics, but perhaps most importantly, elite placement! Recent reporting may suggest otherwise but I expect their commitment to Jones' development to be the full monty.

Like a lot of others, I link Harris' upside to Jones. Harris was an aggressive reach for me, definitely thought he'd see more than 137 carries. Physical, finishes his runs which given that they were never in it, may have had something to do with his volume. Wasn't always 100% & availability is king, hope he manages when to fight & when to get down a little better.  

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18 hours ago, ZappB said:

On top of all of this, we all need to keep in mind that we're in a new Patriots era now.  Even if Belichick is still there, Brady is gone.  We can't necessarily draw the same conclusions about how the Pats run their offense, especially if/when Mac Jones starts.

Curtis Martin

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On 7/16/2021 at 7:12 AM, StevieStats said:

I hear what you are saying, and I am not making the case that Harris will have 300 touches or near it (only 4 or 5 backs did it last year in the league)... What I am saying is don't dismiss him just because it's the Patriots because in recent years they haven't fully committed to a guy, BB will commit to a guy that he likes, he's done it.

As for this year, Michel is actually on the roster bubble and might be cut. As for Stevenson many rookie RBs have been buried this first year, including Harris himself.

 

Yep, this is all valid.   If Michel is gone, I want all I can get of Harris, but the moment that becomes real, his ADP of course skyrockets.   Personally I feel strongly that Cam doesn't last long this season, and that also helps.   White's certain to get some catches IMO, but not too scared of that.   It comes down to how they feel about the rest of the depth chart.  Taylor and a rookie could be anchored to the bench, or they could earn their way into a lot of carries, just comes down to whatever clues we can get in the next month.   If the coaches think these guys are worthy of it, they'll play.   If not Harris gets all he can eat.    Even say, a slight uptick on Sony Michel's 2018 ppg stats makes him a viable RB2.   

 

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