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He hit a 3 run bomb last night, perhaps more importantly didn’t K.

 

It’s been about 100 PAs right now and I think we may have a winner on our hands.


TLDR: Lowe has some swing and miss and is hitting more HR than expected, but he hits the ball hard and shows solid BA potential and patience at the plate 


-His K% is now 27% and has been trending downwards lately

-On pace for 42 HR which may be a bit above his true capability. His HR/FB of 37% is unsustainable and his LA is surprisingly low (3.6 LA, GB% 47%) but guy has power

-He might whiff some but definitely has patience - double digit BB% and O-Swing 24%, that’s excellent

-He smokes the ball - hard! EV is 91mph (64th place overall) and Barrel% 15% (32nd overall)

-He uses all fields; goes opposite field (39%) more than he pulls (33)%), xBA of .278


100 PAs is probably not enough to draw firm conclusions from the above but so far he is showing he can be successful in this league. I think he’ll be an Anthony Rizzo type of player.

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The first HR was oppo and the second was deep to center field. This guy’s power is legit. Breakout incoming

He hit a 3 run bomb last night, perhaps more importantly didn’t K.   It’s been about 100 PAs right now and I think we may have a winner on our hands. TLDR: Lowe has some swing and mi

Ehh he only hit 2, Vince McMahon hit 3!

I like him and have him rostered on almost all my teams. This is his first time getting consistent playing time and he’s still young.  I truly believe he will keep getting better and a true breakout is in the future (maybe this summer but most likely a year or two from now) for this guy. The strikeouts are a little concerning but he’s got all the pieces to be an elite hitter.

33 minutes ago, 5catstud said:

He hit a 3 run bomb last night, perhaps more importantly didn’t K.

 

It’s been about 100 PAs right now and I think we may have a winner on our hands.


TLDR: Lowe has some swing and miss and is hitting more HR than expected, but he hits the ball hard and shows solid BA potential and patience at the plate 


-His K% is now 27% and has been trending downwards lately

-On pace for 42 HR which may be a bit above his true capability. His HR/FB of 37% is unsustainable and his LA is surprisingly low (3.6 LA, GB% 47%) but guy has power

-He might whiff some but definitely has patience - double digit BB% and O-Swing 24%, that’s excellent

-He smokes the ball - hard! EV is 91mph (64th place overall) and Barrel% 15% (32nd overall)

-He uses all fields; goes opposite field (39%) more than he pulls (33)%), xBA of .278


100 PAs is probably not enough to draw firm conclusions from the above but so far he is showing he can be successful in this league. I think he’ll be an Anthony Rizzo type of player.

 

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On 4/27/2021 at 7:33 AM, 5catstud said:

TLDR: Lowe has some swing and miss and is hitting more HR than expected, but he hits the ball hard and shows solid BA potential and patience at the plate 

Agreed.  The Statcast data is starting to pile up to the point where we can kind of trust it, and they're saying his numbers are roughly what we should expect from his quality of contact.  It's also important to consider that league-wide AVG and BABIP are down sharply compared to previous years, so even if we assume he's really a .250 hitter instead of the ~.270 he's showing so far, that's not hurting you the way it might in other years.

Another promising trend is how he's chipping in on the basepaths this season, going 3 for 3 so far after having 8 total stolen base attempts in over 400 games as a professional coming into this season.  His sprint speed is a respectable 60%, which is enough to get 10-15 swipes on a team that likes to give green lights.

He was showing up on a lot of "sell high" lists early on, but he seems like a hold to me.

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

Agreed.  The Statcast data is starting to pile up to the point where we can kind of trust it, and they're saying his numbers are roughly what we should expect from his quality of contact.  It's also important to consider that league-wide AVG and BABIP are down sharply compared to previous years, so even if we assume he's really a .250 hitter instead of the ~.270 he's showing so far, that's not hurting you the way it might in other years.

Another promising trend is how he's chipping in on the basepaths this season, going 3 for 3 so far after having 8 total stolen base attempts in over 400 games as a professional.  His sprint speed is a respectable 60%, which is enough to get 10-15 swipes on a team that likes to give green lights.

He was showing up on a lot of "sell high" lists early on, but he seems like a hold to me.

Yeah I don’t really have the desire to sell high. He’s playing like a top 25 hitter right now. I don’t see anyone getting similar value back. 

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23 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Yeah I don’t really have the desire to sell high. He’s playing like a top 25 hitter right now. I don’t see anyone getting similar value back. 

Top 60-75 maybe.

 

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5 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

Top 60-75 maybe.

He's the 27th ranked hitter on FanGraphs' 5x5 roto calculator right now, and 28th in CBS points leagues. 

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12 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

He's the 27th ranked hitter on FanGraphs' 5x5 roto calculator right now, and 28th in CBS points leagues. 

I was thinking ROS, dude has obv been playing well so far. 

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52 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

I was thinking ROS, dude has obv been playing well so far. 

The post you responded to said “playing like”.  
 

Either way, his performance so far has been backed up by the statcast data.  

He’s not just getting lucky, so a drop to 60-70 doesn’t seem likely.  But of course it’s possible.  

 

Edited by The Waker
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Posted (edited)

[...] I think he could produce at a solid clip going forward so "selling high" doesn't have the urgency it might with another player.  Unless the acquiring team believes in the bat as well, the return might be less productive than keeping Lowe.  

The SB's have been a nice surprise.  Anything you get from a 1b in the SB category is a true bonus.  Hopefully he can swipe a couple more ROS.

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Was happy to ride the wave but the historical K rate always made me worried he would slump on and off.  However, his K rate is down to 27.1% and BB is at 11.5%.  That's very encouraging. 

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6 hours ago, dicka24 said:

Swiped his 4th bag last night.  He had 5 career SB's (including the minors) heading into this season.   

Texas encourages it's players to steal.  He is in the right team to max out that area of his game. 

Best thing that ever happened to him was to get out of that Kevin Cash stat show horror of TB to a place where he could finally play real baseball every day and be free to go for steals as well.  He would have become a forgotten "guy who had potential but never had a chance to show it" back with the Rays and their crazy and self-defeating approach to their hitting lineups.

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16 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Texas encourages it's players to steal.  He is in the right team to max out that area of his game. 

Best thing that ever happened to him was to get out of that Kevin Cash stat show horror of TB to a place where he could finally play real baseball every day and be free to go for steals as well.  He would have become a forgotten "guy who had potential but never had a chance to show it" back with the Rays and their crazy and self-defeating approach to their hitting lineups.

Yoshi Tsusugo would still be starting 5 days a week. Happy for him (and me as a dynasty owner) that he has the chance to play and be a foundational piece for a rebuilding team. He'll heat up even more when the weather does as well.

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9 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Any concerns?

His stat cast page looks fine. Obviously the K’s are and will always be an issue. He’s still walking a good amount. I’m thinking (hoping) he breaks out of this slump shortly. 

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He's been nearing the drop list of late.  [...]  What is everyone's thoughts on him going forward?   I figured there would be highs and lows for a kid who's never played a full season in the majors, and we've seen what the good runs bring.  He's shown some signs of life over the last couple of games and I'm curious if you all still believe in the bat, or have moved on.

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8 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

He's been nearing the drop list of late.  [...]  What is everyone's thoughts on him going forward?   I figured there would be highs and lows for a kid who's never played a full season in the majors, and we've seen what the good runs bring.  He's shown some signs of life over the last couple of games and I'm curious if you all still believe in the bat, or have moved on.

I dropped.

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Sadly I am afraid I may have to cut him loose as well... I like Nate a lot, but dont know if I can hold much longer considering I have another elite 1B occupying that spot and plays practically every day.  I still believe in the kid, but I just dont know if this is his year (he only has total of ~ 450 MLB AB's under his belt).  He could turn it on tomorrow and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, and yes he has shown some signs of life lately.  Was hoping he could catch fire and be a solid trading chip or nice little thrown in on a trade that needs that extra push to get to the finish line. I'll probably give him another week or two before making a decision since I have a couple guys coming off IL soon.

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35 minutes ago, StartYourStuds said:

Nate Lowe batting .067 against guys throwing 95 MPH or higher... which is the worst in the AL.....yeesh

The Rays don’t virtually give away young talent with 5+ years of team control left unless there is an underlying issue. Nate Lowe and Jake Bauers were both bailed on very swiftly and now we know why.

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6 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

The Rays don’t virtually give away young talent with 5+ years of team control left unless there is an underlying issue. Nate Lowe and Jake Bauers were both bailed on very swiftly and now we know why.

Lowe will be fine and yes the Rays made a big mistake trading him away.

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11 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Lowe will be fine and yes the Rays made a big mistake trading him away.

What's the recent history for guys who struggle with heat like? Does that imply his true ceiling, or is there precedent for bat speed improvement?

I'm a fan of Lowe but don't take stuff like that lightly. 

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7 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

What's the recent history for guys who struggle with heat like? Does that imply his true ceiling, or is there precedent for bat speed improvement?

I'm a fan of Lowe but don't take stuff like that lightly. 

Cody Bellinger was the 7th worst in all of baseball vs the fastball last season. I don’t know how that exactly relates but I heard it on the Dodger broadcast the other night 

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