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James Conner 2021 Outlook


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59 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He didn't. Conner played 561 offensive snaps to Snell's 281. Snell played more snaps week 1, after Conner got dinged up/disciplined for yelling at Tomlin.

Snell never outsnapped Conner again.

Care to try again?

yea, Conner stinks

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You mean... Kyler will turn his shoulder into stone and the Cards will float like a hamburger?

After Kyler hurt his shoulder, he stopped running for those 1 yard bunnies and Drake got more of them.

I mean, Pit ranked 32nd in just about every run blocking metric last year. So it's not an excuse, but sure.    Edit - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/foplus/dvoa-database/basic-offensive-d

7 hours ago, BrianM said:

Can something be "very" moderate?  How about extremely average or especially pedestrian?

Slightly unique.

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3 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Draft him as your 3rd or 4th RB and hope for health the week you need him.

Yuck, I wouldnt mind him as my 5th or 6th RB, but even then I rather have someone with more upside.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

"Hello, yes, I want all the murkiness of a Bucs RB situation, but their offense scores too many TDs.  Can you make me a recommendation?"

I mean, would you say the same thing about David Montgommery or Josh Jacobs?

Conner is a starting RB. He's 6'1" and 230 and has an every down skillset. Edmonds is like 5'9" and 200 lbs, and plays like a small, 3rd down back.

There's nothing murky here. 

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53 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I mean, would you say the same thing about David Montgommery or Josh Jacobs?

Conner is a starting RB. He's 6'1" and 230 and has an every down skillset. Edmonds is like 5'9" and 200 lbs, and plays like a small, 3rd down back.

There's nothing murky here. 

Except Edmonds is the incumbent, his coach likes him, he's a talented pass catcher with a nose for the end zone, and though his role may not be voluminous it will certainly frustrate anyone who owns Conner next season.

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5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Except Edmonds is the incumbent, his coach likes him, he's a talented pass catcher with a nose for the end zone, and though his role may not be voluminous it will certainly frustrate anyone who owns Conner next season.

Mostly agree, but it's worth noting that he's the incumbent 3rd down back. Not an incumbent starter. 

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Mostly agree, but it's worth noting that he's the incumbent 3rd down back. Not an incumbent starter. 

Labeling him "the 3rd down back" is a bit simplistic, no?  I mean yes he did have a pass catching role when Drake was healthy but Kingsbury also gave him 25+ carries in two games Drake missed.

He was a fly in the ointment for Drake owners, and I suspect that paired with Conner they both suck the value out of each other and genuinely just frustrate people.  Conner because he gets the early down volume work and Drake because he gets the catches and scores..

Again, like the Bucs situation.  With less TDs.

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5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Labeling him "the 3rd down back" is a bit simplistic, no?  I mean yes he did have a pass catching role when Drake was healthy but Kingsbury also gave him 25+ carries in two games Drake missed.

He was a fly in the ointment for Drake owners, and I suspect that paired with Conner they both suck the value out of each other and genuinely just frustrate people.  Conner because he gets the early down volume work and Drake because he gets the catches and scores..

Again, like the Bucs situation.  With less TDs.

The Bucs situation is 4 RBs. This is an early down back and a pass catcher. 

Like I said, this is no different than most backfields. Jonathan Taylor has Hines and Mack. Monty has to deal with Damien Williams and Cohen. Josh Jacobs has Drake and Richard. Chubb has Hunt. Dobbins,  Edwards, and Jackson all have to share carries.

I'm not suggesting Conner is an elite RB1, but I do think he van be a high end RB2, and his situation is no worse than that of other guys in that range. 

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

The Bucs situation is 4 RBs. This is an early down back and a pass catcher. 

Like I said, this is no different than most backfields. Jonathan Taylor has Hines and Mack. Monty has to deal with Damien Williams and Cohen. Josh Jacobs has Drake and Richard. Chubb has Hunt. Dobbins,  Edwards, and Jackson all have to share carries.

I'm not suggesting Conner is an elite RB1, but I do think he van be a high end RB2, and his situation is no worse than that of other guys in that range. 

RB2 would come with some goal line appeal, Conner has very little as would any RB tethered to Kyler, I think he ran most of the GL carries for the last 2 seasons

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Conner will be a little bit worse Kenyan Drake in 2021 in the unlikely event Conner can stay healthy.  

Draft both, then trade Edmonds to a gullible league mate after Conner gets hurt but before the next Arizona Cardinals game.

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11 minutes ago, 1st-Place-Phinish said:

RB2 would come with some goal line appeal, Conner has very little as would any RB tethered to Kyler, I think he ran most of the GL carries for the last 2 seasons

Yes, Murray will vulture a lot. 

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After Kyler hurt his shoulder, he stopped running for those 1 yard bunnies and Drake got more of them.

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Kyler's a misdirection wizard with the zone reads, especially close to the goal line.   Watch his rush TD's, and on most, even those with a phone booth's worth of open space, he isnj't touched.  I'm sure a perfect world for the Cardinals keeps their QB from needing to do this, but I expect it to continue in 2021- he's just too good at it.   

I do think part of that success is because they did give it to Drake enough to keep the defense off balance, but I am gonna bet the under on Conner hitting 8 TD's this year.  

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After Kyler turned his shoulder into hamburger, the Cardinals sank like a stone.  I am betting the opposite happens.

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

After Kyler turned his shoulder into hamburger, the Cardinals sank like a stone.  I am betting the opposite happens.

You mean... Kyler will turn his shoulder into stone and the Cards will float like a hamburger?

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I'm not suggesting Conner is an elite RB1, but I do think he van be a high end RB2,

you have such a boner for James Conner

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31 minutes ago, Chippa said:

you have such a boner for James Conner

Guilty. 

Except, it's more that the rest of the fantasy community has an irrational hatred of him. It happens with every good RB who gets hurt in his prime. Dalvin Cook. Aaron Jones. Fournette. CMC and Barkley will join the group when (not if) they get injured one more time.

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2 hours ago, Chippa said:

you have such a boner for James Conner

7a638aff423f22b2baa6170c1cb84e1a.jpg

Edit: I think on a personal level we can all relate to the fact that Conner is a cool guy. But he's also a huge risk in fantasy, and you have to take that into account.

Edited by Boudewijn
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9 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I mean, would you say the same thing about David Montgommery or Josh Jacobs?

Conner is a starting RB. He's 6'1" and 230 and has an every down skillset. Edmonds is like 5'9" and 200 lbs, and plays like a small, 3rd down back.

There's nothing murky here. 

Say what about Monty and Jacobs? I don’t think those situations are very clear right now...definitely some questions for both. But I don’t want to derail the thread either. 

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26 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Say what about Monty and Jacobs? I don’t think those situations are very clear right now...definitely some questions for both. But I don’t want to derail the thread either. 

All of the above situations seem pretty clear to me. If you're just saying that Conner's situation is murky in the sense that he doesn't have the backfield all to himself, than sure, I agree. But if that's the definition of murky, than all but 4 or 5 RBs in the league have murky situations. 

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10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

All of the above situations seem pretty clear to me. If you're just saying that Conner's situation is murky in the sense that he doesn't have the backfield all to himself, than sure, I agree. But if that's the definition of murky, than all but 4 or 5 RBs in the league have murky situations. 

Myeah... I'm not a huge fan of the Jacobs situation either, nor of whatever Nagy is trying to do in Chicago. In both cases it's not just that there's no bell-cow (which is defensible from a real-world point of view) but these coaches seem to actively conspire to get the worst out of their RBs. On the other hand, I expect both to go at some discount in drafts, which may give them an opportunity to exceed my lowly expectations.

But I consider Arizona murkier because these are both interesting but risky RBs in a powerful offense and if anything, I expect both to be over drafted a bit, and then underachieving. Murray will get his, Chase will get his, Conner will get some, but both RBs would have to go quite cheap for me to invest in them.

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