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Ke'Bryan Hayes 2021 Outlook


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1 minute ago, Jimmymckrack said:

He has been slumping pretty bad lately with alarming ground ball rate, barrel rate, and hard contact rate.  I wonder if its a slump, if the wrist is flaring up, or like most of the prospects this year-expectations were too high...

He still has close to a 800 OPS.  I’m not super worried, this is the first rough patch he’s faced in the majors.  Hope he can respond to this slump well 

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11 minutes ago, billofwash said:

And to think I was reluctant to include this guy in trade offers.

Good thing you didn't.  He is the real deal.  Sophomore years most always has the pitcher/hitter cat and mouse "adapting" to each other games.  Dude is legit.

Also every single player that has ever lived has gone through slumps.  What is the big deal?

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Live in Pittsburgh, follow the team closely. His 2020 was an aberration. He was never going to push 40 homers and 20 steals. He never had a ton of power in the minors, but he's also not some meh ordinary bum like some imply here.

Hayes is somewhere between last year and this. He should be a .300+ hitter with 20-25 homer pop and 10 steals while playing elite defense. That's not horrible numbers for a 3B hitter, but what  makes hin so good is his all-around package, which is probably better for real life than fantasy. He does everything at least good and some things (hit tool, defense) is elite.   

 

Edited by kwolf68
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2 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

Live in Pittsburgh, follow the team closely. His 2020 was an aberration. He was never going to push 40 homers and 20 steals. He never had a ton of power in the minors, but he's also not some meh ordinary bum like some imply here.

Hayes is somewhere between last year and this. He should be a .300+ hitter with 20-25 homer pop and 10 steals while playing elite defense. That's not horrible numbers for a 3B hitter, but what  makes hin so good is his all-around package, which is probably better for real life than fantasy. He does everything at least good and some things (hit tool, defense) is elite.   

 

It wouldn't be out of the question for him to hit more home runs, though. Plenty of players don't come into their power until they reach the majors and the ball jumps off his bat. 

I still think projections like yours are the safe bet, but there is some upside. 

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3 minutes ago, Words said:

It wouldn't be out of the question for him to hit more home runs, though. Plenty of players don't come into their power until they reach the majors and the ball jumps off his bat. 

I still think projections like yours are the safe bet, but there is some upside. 

No it would not because his hard hit rate is very good. However, he does not have a great HR launch angle. I think he's more a line drive guy. He'll run into some homers but he's not going to power up to 35 like 2020 trajectory suggested. That said, his lack of running this year is concerning. I do expect 12-15 steals a year, but he's on a pace of half that right now. 

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12 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

No it would not because his hard hit rate is very good. However, he does not have a great HR launch angle. I think he's more a line drive guy. He'll run into some homers but he's not going to power up to 35 like 2020 trajectory suggested. That said, his lack of running this year is concerning. I do expect 12-15 steals a year, but he's on a pace of half that right now. 

Launch angles can change. He hasn't really gotten going since his return from the long trip to the IL. Once he is getting on base more, a few steals will come. 

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2 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

No it would not because his hard hit rate is very good. However, he does not have a great HR launch angle. I think he's more a line drive guy. He'll run into some homers but he's not going to power up to 35 like 2020 trajectory suggested. That said, his lack of running this year is concerning. I do expect 12-15 steals a year, but he's on a pace of half that right now. 

Metrics and launch angles are the past.  Players, both young and older, evolve and change.  Plenty of players have changed their launch angle after coming up to the majors.

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On 7/19/2021 at 1:28 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Metrics and launch angles are the past.  Players, both young and older, evolve and change.  Plenty of players have changed their launch angle after coming up to the majors.

Project away, but this guy became a world class player doing what he does. I'd be shocked if he ever hits 30 homers. Why mess with it? He's got an elite hit tool and good speed with a brilliant glove. A guy who sucks  up the left side while hitting 300 with a 20 homer 10 steal result is A-OK,

Dreams of 35 homers are foolish. If Hayes, who has a wonderful hit tool, ever decided to tinker with that, the results would possibly be  not good. Sometimes guys hit how they hit. If Hayes can "change his launch" angle, good for him, but  I won't hold my breath and I hope the Pirates just let him be who he is, basically a higher average version of Brooks Robinson. OH NO, NOT THAT. LOL

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Sounds crazy but I am in a deep league on there is a guy or two on the wire I would rather have in my lineup right now.

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2 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

All the best kebryan but I bid you adieu.  

It never crossed my mind until now.

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5 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I still believe in him.  This is basically his sophomore slump (imo).  He'll adjust.  And it's not like a ~750 OPS is terrible 

It's not, but his counting stats already suffer because of that abysmal lineup and now Frazier is gone. The real dagger is going to be if Reynolds gets dealt. 

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7 hours ago, street sharks said:

It's not, but his counting stats already suffer because of that abysmal lineup and now Frazier is gone. The real dagger is going to be if Reynolds gets dealt. 

Counting stats don’t really depend on the team, only production ans spot on lineup 

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55 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Counting stats don’t really depend on the team, only production ans spot on lineup 

Oh lord lets NOT go here again. I mean, of course losing Frazier is going to hurt the overall productivity of the Pirates lineup and its fair to assume Hayes loses a few counting stats as a direct result. Y'know we're good on this buddy, I really respect your dedication to your opinion here. 

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I have to say about Hayes-he's probably a drop for a lot of reasons beyond this trade. One prospect I fear is a shutdown in the last weeks of the year; any minor injury will be used as an excuse to sit him down. The overall impact of his game should be over a full season, and with less than half a year left, he doesn't provide enough category juice relative to many other options. Its team dependent but I think if you have another option at 3rd, you can find other fits for your roster. I think the price will drop a lot for next season, where he can really be a value outside the top 100. For guys like him and Alec Bohm, they were a little over-ranked coming into 2021, and aren't really solid bets ROS if you're needing some power, speed or pitching.

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20 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Oh lord lets NOT go here again. I mean, of course losing Frazier is going to hurt the overall productivity of the Pirates lineup and its fair to assume Hayes loses a few counting stats as a direct result. Y'know we're good on this buddy, I really respect your dedication to your opinion here. 

It’s not an opinion, it’s been researched.  But it’s counterintuitive so nobody will ever accept it lol

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