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8 hours ago, 89Topps said:

Heard a crazy stat today.  The average player steals 9 more bases just from moving from the 8th to the 7th spot in the lineup.  They steal 16 more bases going from 8th to leadoff.  

Got a link?  There's only an ~18 PA difference between 8 and 7 in a batting order, so my hunch is that the causation arrow is the other way, whereby better players who get on base more (and therefore steal more bags) are moved up in the order.

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I've been going back and forth on Robles the past month on his ROS value; I had never taken a deeper look at some of his metrics prior to this year and I'm more pessimistic than optimistic now.

Mallex Smith had a prime? 😄

Heard a crazy stat today.  The average player steals 9 more bases just from moving from the 8th to the 7th spot in the lineup.  They steal 16 more bases going from 8th to leadoff.  

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Got a link?  There's only an ~18 PA difference between 8 and 7 in a batting order, so my hunch is that the causation arrow is the other way, whereby better players who get on base more (and therefore steal more bags) are moved up in the order.

I found it hard to believe as well, since the “average” player doesn’t steal 9 bases to begin with.

 It was on a Rates and Barrels podcast. Eno Saris said it. I believe he referenced maybe Jeff Sullivan?  I’ll try to relisten to it today.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well he leadoff like they promised last night and looked ok. Showed more patience and that's going to be the key for him.

Could be a very undervalued source of SBs and Runs if he sticks. It's up to him to prove it as having Turner in an RBI spot makes more sense now.

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11 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

He drew 2 walks, that’s all I really care about.  If he can get on base at a decent clip and stay at the top of the order great things are going to happen

That’s what I was looking for yesterday watching the game. If he can keep a more patient approach then he’s going to out produce his adp pretty easily with all the runs and stolen bases he should accumulate. The Nats are better off with him at lead off and Turner in a run producing spot in the lineup so I think they’ll let Robles stick there unless things go really bad. But I think his leash is relatively long in the short term to let him figure it out and get comfortable there. 

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Robles is still only 23 (turns 24 next month). Andrew Vaughn is 23. Andrew Vaughn just saw hsi first Major League pitch. I think people might a bit harsh on Robles given his age. Maybe he never quite pans out, but even "bad" Robles still gets you a fair amount of steals and decent counting stats.

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1 hour ago, Jericho said:

Robles is still only 23 (turns 24 next month). Andrew Vaughn is 23. Andrew Vaughn just saw hsi first Major League pitch. I think people might a bit harsh on Robles given his age. Maybe he never quite pans out, but even "bad" Robles still gets you a fair amount of steals and decent counting stats.

Just my personal opinion but to me I think MLB experience is a better metric than age.  

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1 hour ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I mean he still has a .359 Obp, so as long as he can keep taking a few walks and a few hbp to keep above .330 I doubt they move him.  

True, but man, he's not doing ANYTHING else with the bat.  87 wRC+ is brutal for a guy at the top of a lineup.

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8 Ks in his last 11 at-bats now.

Hard not to be concerned. He bulked up last year. Said how was trying to be something he's not - a power hitter. Now he's slimmed back down and trying to be a Lorenzo Cain-esque leadoff hitter...yet now finds himself in the 9th hole...almost feels he's changing things up too fast.

It's just the Nationals third series, but after having him in previous years, I don't think I'll wait too long this time (past next week) waiting for a breakout, if it doesn't happen. Limited power, high K, bad statcast isn't a recipe for fantasy success.

Edited by PhilaFanBoy
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1 minute ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

8 Ks in his 11 at-bats now.

Hard not to be concerned. He bulked about last year. Said how was trying to be something he's not - a power hitter. Now he's slimmed back down and trying to be a Lorenzo Cain-esque leadoff hitter...yet now finds himself in the 9th hole...almost feels he's changing things up too fast.

It's just the Nationals third series, but after having him in previous years, I don't think I'll wait too long this time waiting for a breakout, if it doesn't happen.

Same. I've been hanging on to him in a keeper league, patiently hoping to cash in on some of that prospect pedigree that he had.  Am now very close to hitting that drop button.

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2 minutes ago, RTW10 said:

Same. I've been hanging on to him in a keeper league, patiently hoping to cash in on some of that prospect pedigree that he had.  Am now very close to hitting that drop button.

Think once he hits a hot streak, hopefully, I’m going to trade him. He’s another Buxton, pre-2021.

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Glad I’m not the only one considering dropping him in a keeper league. Another owner dropped him last week due to injury issues with his roster but I quickly scooped him up and now I’m thinking of dropping him too. I’ll try to hold out longer but with injuries and covid already taking out several of my other players I don’t know how long I can afford to hold. 

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2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

Glad I’m not the only one considering dropping him in a keeper league. Another owner dropped him last week due to injury issues with his roster but I quickly scooped him up and now I’m thinking of dropping him too. I’ll try to hold out longer but with injuries and covid already taking out several of my other players I don’t know how long I can afford to hold. 

I can’t understand this reasoning at all - not in a shallow redraft league and definitely not in a keeper. 
 

- He is 23

- In his last full season he went .255/17HR/28SB

- 2020 was 2020 complete pass 

- so far this year he has more than doubled his walk rate, dropped his K rate, lowered his O-swing % and increased his contact rate all while playing elite defense that will keep him in the lineup every single day.

This is not a droppable player. 

Edited by mudrummer
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22 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

I can’t understand this reasoning at all - not in a shallow redraft league and definitely not in a keeper. 
 

- He is 23

- In his last full season he went .255/17HR/28SB

- 2020 was 2020 complete pass 

- so far this year he has more than doubled his walk rate, dropped his K rate, lowered his O-swing % and increased his contact rate all while playing elite defense that will keep him in the lineup every single day.

This is not a droppable player. 

I stand corrected sir. I honestly had not done nearly as much digging as I should have before considering this. The move down to 9th surprised me a bit and the injuries and absences are piling up. 

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I guess league context is important. I am considering dropping in a points league where steals don't really matter all that much. He just doesn't do much in that format when he's batting 9th with very little power and counting stats.

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Seeing him dropped in the line-up after a whole 8 games is disappointing. Particularly since his OBP was actually quite good. The one thing Robles was doing was getting on base. I don't get managers sometimes, it's like if it doesn't work in 5 seconds you gotta change it up.

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I read a couple of weeks ago that the plan was to have Robles mostly hit leadoff but occasionally Davey Martinez was going to have him hit 9th depending on matchups. I think the Nats prefer Turner at 2 and Soto at 3 and desperately want Robles to succeed as their leadoff hitter.  

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12 minutes ago, Von Hayes said:

I read a couple of weeks ago that the plan was to have Robles mostly hit leadoff but occasionally Davey Martinez was going to have him hit 9th depending on matchups. I think the Nats prefer Turner at 2 and Soto at 3 and desperately want Robles to succeed as their leadoff hitter.  

If he's back up there tomorrow despite going 0-3 then that would seem to be the case.

Otherwise he might be down there for good until he starts hitting.

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