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I've been going back and forth on Robles the past month on his ROS value; I had never taken a deeper look at some of his metrics prior to this year and I'm more pessimistic than optimistic now.

Mallex Smith had a prime? 😄

Heard a crazy stat today.  The average player steals 9 more bases just from moving from the 8th to the 7th spot in the lineup.  They steal 16 more bases going from 8th to leadoff.  

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Benched today for Andrew Stephenson.  Robles may not be long for the leadoff spot,  but for Davey to give up on him batting 1st after 7 games is pretty ludicrous and short sighted.  And now, today he’s on the bench.  Seems like Martinez can’t stand him. 

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I dropped him. Might be too soon. But he's now out of lead off spot, Turner & Soto are perfectly capable up there, and in order for him to be fantasy relevant in 12 team leagues, without the power to hit home runs, he needs to be at least a .280 hitter at the top of the lineup, hustling out extra base hits.

Mind you, I'm in a points league where his numbers didn't stack up well, even during his solid 2019 season. There's a chance he'll bounce back, but I'd far rather chase other players right now.

Article from January: https://www.pitcherlist.com/2021-or-bust-victor-robles/

"It depends on what you are looking for. When it comes to Robles, I was never that high on him being an all-around player. Even at the apex of his hype, I was screaming about the limitations of his stolen base rates despite his notable speed. That said, I want to believe it’s possible he turns it around at the plate to become a decent leadoff hitter. I don’t think it’s very likely though. MLB pitchers are really just dominating him with velocity. There isn’t any indication that they’ve even had to make adjustments to Robles. Instead, half the pitches he gets are fastballs, which is an indication that they simply aren’t afraid of him. Not that they should be. Anything with velocity has given Robles trouble, which does not bode well given today’s league. The good news is the Nationals will give him all of 2021 to find out what works."

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It's a small sample size, but he's walking more and chasing less so far in 2021. That's a positive. He's not crazy driving the ball, but even his Statcast numbers are up. Plus, it seems he's been a bit unlucky (a .204 Average vs. a .240 xBA and a .245 slugging vs. a .342 xSLG). But generally you drafted him for steals anyhow

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10 minutes ago, South Jersey Bombers said:

I'm starting to worry he isn't who we thought he was. 

He’s definitely not what we hoped for...my biggest red flag right now I go sprint speed isn’t even good.  That seems odd considering he was supposed to work mainly on agility and speed all winter

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Batting 8th it’s really hard to tell how useless he is because he’s not getting good pitches with the pitcher hitting 9th. So his walks are artificially higher but he might also hit a little better if he saw more strikes. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
55 minutes ago, rotoguy74 said:

 

Heating up or a mirage?

I mean it looks like he actually did something, I gotta see more. I’ll keep an eye on him. Wish they would move him back up in the lineup.

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4 hours ago, rotoguy74 said:

 

Heating up or a mirage?

Relatively, it has been better. The bar was super low though, as he basically had no runs, no RBI, no extra base hits, and no steals in April (or maybe 1 of each). So...progress?

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I've been going back and forth on Robles the past month on his ROS value; I had never taken a deeper look at some of his metrics prior to this year and I'm more pessimistic than optimistic now.

image.png.f488503e4a1d0768bcad3c90a54d0bc1.png

(From Baseball Savant)

I can't include more screenshots due to file size (boo!)

Here's my quick analysis or thoughts:

  • He doesn't seem to make good contact.  You can see from the above he's in the bottom 10% for Avg Exit Velocity, bottom 11% for HardHit, bottom 9% barrel.
  • The positive is he's striking out less while walking more; which is typically a good sign but not sure (career high BB%)
  • You look at previous years, they look very similar from a contact perspective (avg exit velocity/hardhit/barrel); seems concerning to say the least.
  • So if he's lacking power, he needs to provide value with his elite speed - give us some steals!  He isn't really...4 SB, 2 of which come in as many days, but he's also been caught 3 times.  
  • His BABIP is at a career high .342, but his speed can support that; just pointing out that it's not like he has been getting bad luck in that area.
  • ISO has been trending in the wrong direction for a 4th year in a row (granted last year was small sample size) - .237 > .165 > .095 > .076! ....again, seems like he doesn't make great contact.

He's still only 24, so maybe long-term dynasty outlook isn't as doom and gloom, but not sure of ROS value this year at this point, especially with him buried at the bottom of the order.

 

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I feel like it's a good time to summarize the last 2 years of this thread and probably the next 2 years

"his advanced metrics are terrible, he never hits the ball hard"

"yeah, but he bunts a lot, which messes up the metrics"

"well, being a crappy bunter isn't winning me fantasy points"

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12 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I feel like it's a good time to summarize the last 2 years of this thread and probably the next 2 years

"his advanced metrics are terrible, he never hits the ball hard"

"yeah, but he bunts a lot, which messes up the metrics"

"well, being a crappy bunter isn't winning me fantasy points"

 If he was able to take some walks it would sure help - but he's not good at that. Walks are the best way to break out of a slump and get a little something going. He does not appear to have the "plate vision" to make this into a thing. In order to maximize his potential he needs to actually get on base - and he's just not a good hitter right now, nor has he been as you point out.

Maybe he finds some "Svangali"-type hitting coach that can adjust his approach - he's young enough that could possibly work. But it's not going to be happening anytime soon the way things look. It's frustrating because I really like Robles' skills - he can be pretty impactful when he's feeling it - but those stretches are very short and while he's had opportunity to put longer stretches together, that has not happened. 

Like any other player he's going to have good stretches or at least "better stretches" - he appears to be in that right now. If you're desperate for speed I can see starting him but as the aforementioned metrics suggest this appears to be more a "noise" thing than some major adjustment. If he can get on base somehow he's going to swipe some bases no doubt.

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

I will never draft this player again in any format! 

 

Never say never........Victor just turned 24.    Always a chance that SB potential gets us all again.

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