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Alejandro Kirk 2021 Outlook


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23 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Jansen is light years the better catcher so he will always get plenty of starts as well.

Jansen is batting like .060. He's ready to be the second catcher. 

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Kirk was a bit of a surprise call-up in 2020 going from High A ball to the majors and triple-slashed .375/.400/.583 in 25 plate appearances. Obviously we're dealing with an extremely small sample size

I thought Reese McGuire had a solid grip on the backup catcher spot but Kirk might be able to beat him off.

Are you a jays fan? Jansen isn't lightyears better lol... Kirk is better at framing. There's a couple if pitchers who prefer to throw to him(Ray). Jansen has a little bit better arm but.. come on. Kir

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Jansen is batting like .060. He's ready to be the second catcher. 

I saw a mention today of Jonathan Lucroy as a possibility to sign with the Jays, which may or may not happen, but I think Danny Jansen is ready to be sent down or replaced and Kirk has the inside track at the moment. Regardless, the Jays are going to be an active team at the trade deadline, and I would expect them to address areas of need like the bullpen and possibly the catching spot. Still think "Fat William Shatner" could put his weight into 15+ HR balls this summer once the Jays get up to Buffalo, just not expecting him to take off yet. A dinger or two would be nice.

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2 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

I saw a mention today of Jonathan Lucroy as a possibility to sign with the Jays, which may or may not happen, but I think Danny Jansen is ready to be sent down or replaced and Kirk has the inside track at the moment. Regardless, the Jays are going to be an active team at the trade deadline, and I would expect them to address areas of need like the bullpen and possibly the catching spot. Still think "Fat William Shatner" could put his weight into 15+ HR balls this summer once the Jays get up to Buffalo, just not expecting him to take off yet. A dinger or two would be nice.

https://youtu.be/lul-Y8vSr0I

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54 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

This is the kind of content we seek to inspire. I watched that with my eyebrows raised and shaking my head throughout. Reminded me of this old video-oddly enough the creator of it mentions filming it at a carnival following a Giants no hitter in 2002. Cool song. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snEcAdbGXTY

 

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Jansen is batting like .060. He's ready to be the second catcher. 

I'm talking about real baseball -- not fantasy where we are only interested in bats and not gloves -- where a top grade defensive catcher like Jansen is, is actually valued.  The two games I saw against the Sox Jansen was absolutely outstanding behind the plate blocking balls right and left and saving several runs and I imagine the Toronto pitchers would rather pitch to him than anyone else at this point.

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I'm talking about real baseball -- not fantasy where we are only interested in bats and not gloves -- where a top grade defensive catcher like Jansen is, is actually valued.  The two games I saw against the Sox Jansen was absolutely outstanding behind the plate blocking balls right and left and saving several runs and I imagine the Toronto pitchers would rather pitch to him than anyone else at this point.

Yes I wasn't talking about fantasy baseball. Great defense or no, a sub .100 average won't give you a long life as a starter. 

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37 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yes I wasn't talking about fantasy baseball. Great defense or no, a sub .100 average won't give you a long life as a starter. 

Correct. While we often overlook the fielding contributions of players when making our evaluations, it's a pretty simple calculation that if a guy can't at least hit his weight at the plate, he's not going to be long for the big league scene. Jansen is listed at 225 and Kirk is listed at 265 so I'd say the formula holds true in this instance.

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yes I wasn't talking about fantasy baseball. Great defense or no, a sub .100 average won't give you a long life as a starter. 

If we're going to assume Jansen is a sub .100 hitter, we have to assume Kirk is a .188 hitter. It's early.

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On 4/24/2021 at 8:20 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Jansen is light years the better catcher so he will always get plenty of starts as well.

Are you a jays fan? Jansen isn't lightyears better lol... Kirk is better at framing. There's a couple if pitchers who prefer to throw to him(Ray). Jansen has a little bit better arm but.. come on. Kirk needs more playing time. 

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4 minutes ago, jasonpark87 said:

Kirk with 2 home runs tonight - the 2nd one was deep to dead center. This guy has some.resl power.

After a 2-HR game from Mitch Garver last week, the Twins sent down Ryan Jeffers today. I think this performance should have a similar effect, and once this lineup gets rolling he could become very interesting in more than deep leagues. He reminds me of Jeremy Brown, and if you haven't seen Moneyball in awhile, here's the scene:

 

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Those two homeruns were absolutely blasted. With a performance like that he is forcing his way into the lineup on a daily basis. Only a matter of time. The last opportunity may be now to add if he’s available.

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It's the good/bad of small sample sizes, particularly with a catcher who's not playing as regularly as other positions (and in Kirk's case splitting with Jansen). One good game and he's already slashing .231/.318/.487, and that's with a .200 BABIP. Currently at a 9.1% walk rate, a 13.6% K-rate, and good Statcast numbers that suggests he should have more hits than he's gotten. Got to like that.

 

9.1%    13.6%    .256    .200    .231    .318    .487

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1 hour ago, Jericho said:

It's the good/bad of small sample sizes, particularly with a catcher who's not playing as regularly as other positions (and in Kirk's case splitting with Jansen). One good game and he's already slashing .231/.318/.487, and that's with a .200 BABIP. Currently at a 9.1% walk rate, a 13.6% K-rate, and good Statcast numbers that suggests he should have more hits than he's gotten. Got to like that.

 

9.1%    13.6%    .256    .200    .231    .318    .487

His swing is amazing. Stays long through the zone, but short compact with power to all fields. A ton of plate coverage. He's adjusting to the breaking ball, as teams realize he hammers fastballs. .300 25 hr+ in his prime imo

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He had some kind of a leg injury occur early in the game tonight. He stayed in the game for about 4 innings after, but left in the 7th for Danny Jansen. Hopefully it's not anything too serious, but something to monitor if you were thinking of picking him up. 

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And now on the IL. That was good run. Two HRs, looking like he might be breaking out and then on the IL in less than 24 hours. This is why we can't have nice things.

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6 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Any speculation on injury/how long he will be out?

Been trying to find some info, but it's generally lacking. A grade 1 strain (the mildest) is about a 2 week injury, though there is some concern here with the fact Kirk catches. It may make it a bit more difficult to "rehab" (which is basically just rest). More serious strains can take months. Considering Kirk initially stayed in the game, he's likely a grade 1 type. So hopefully not out long. But we need more info to be sure.

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38 minutes ago, Jericho said:

Been trying to find some info, but it's generally lacking. A grade 1 strain (the mildest) is about a 2 week injury, though there is some concern here with the fact Kirk catches. It may make it a bit more difficult to "rehab" (which is basically just rest). More serious strains can take months. Considering Kirk initially stayed in the game, he's likely a grade 1 type. So hopefully not out long. But we need more info to be sure.

Just reading the tea leaves my guess is not overly serious - I think MLB teams just can’t afford to not have a second catcher on the active roster for emergency situations. Hoping he is back after the minimum.

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Found this from yesterday on twitter.

 
Hip flexors can be a little tricky. Due to his position, importance of the hip flexors for hitting, he might need 14-35 days, depending on severity. Grade 1 - minimum, Grade 2 - at least 2 weeks, up to 6. Let’s hope it’s minor & he just needs a quick IL stint. #WeAreBlueJays
 
MLB_Teams_2021_TOR.png

 

 

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Well, 6 weeks might as well be 2 months--if they are being ultra conservative with a young guy. I am still going to try and hold in an IL spot because I can see him being a very good catching option for July/Aug/Sep...it will be a challenge though. Jansen is awful and Kirk was straight up taking the starting gig.

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1 minute ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Well, 6 weeks might as well be 2 months--if they are being ultra conservative with a young guy. I am still going to try and hold in an IL spot because I can see him being a very good catching option for July/Aug/Sep...it will be a challenge though. Jansen is awful and Kirk was straight up taking the starting gig.

What else can you do. It's either a league with enough IL or bench spots to let you hide him, or it's not.  It's unfortunate this happened right as he started to get hot.

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