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3 hours ago, EsTiLO said:

 

Most of those pitchers you drafted late are question marks. Basically rolling the dice that atleast 2 or 3 can give you reliable stats.

 

Carrasco, sure health. Gausman Lopez are studs

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12 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Carrasco, sure health. Gausman Lopez are studs

We have different a definition of studs 😀.I will be targeting Gasman and Lopez as well but they are backend guys. So hard to trust them.  Carrasco is a no go with that injury. I'll let someone else deal with the headache.

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13 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Carrasco, sure health. Gausman Lopez are studs


the thing is , In a competitive league, most managers are going to be looking at guys like gausman & Lopez because of the breakout chance. 

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Gausman still worries me.  If you can sit him for the first month, then that might be a good idea.  He always takes time to warm up.  Probably past the point where you can count on him being dropped in mixed leagues but that was not uncommon in years past.

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I like the general conceit that selling "can't miss" picks is foolish and there is inherent risk and volatility with every player.

I understand that the objective was to write pitcher rankings, but I think, as the author alludes to, it can and should be applied holistically.  Whoever you think is the best hitter can also "miss" due to injury or maybe some other unknown volatility and if you draw it out far enough you can prove it historically.  I'm old enough to remember when Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez were "can't miss" draft picks until one day they weren't.

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The article is in line with my typical strategy, although I had never had the numbers to back that up. Pitchers are just much more variable than hitters, so you are better off going later at pitcher where there's a better chance a lower end pitcher becomes an ace, rather than at hitter where the lower end hitter has a less chance of becoming a top hitter.

The same can be said about targeting specific stats, such as AVG and ERA. These numbers are mostly dependent on "luck" factors (BABIP, LOB%, etc.) that a player can't control. On an AB basis, AVG and ERA are by far the least stable, so I am usually essentially ignoring these two stats during drafts and loading up on the remaining 8 stats, hoping that due to routine variance I will end up middle of the road.

Also should be mentioned that "floor" is usually a fallacy, and players can have dramatic decrease in effectiveness or get hurt at any time. This happens much more often than players all the sudden outperforming previous metrics or potential (prospects can outperform). So in this case I typically go heavy for the high upside guys with perceived riskier floor, with the understanding most people are underselling the floor risk on the perceived high floor players. Applying this to pitchers, a guy like Kyle Hendricks who has virtually no further upside, but has a perceived high floor, is someone I will avoid, as the floor is much lower than his price indicates (could get hurt, could have bad BABIP luck, could have minor decrease in effectiveness, etc.). On the flip side, guys who have been injured usually drop too far. The caveat with this is that it may effect innings pitch limits, which in itself then limits the upside.

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You know I have been looking at this, because it seemed unsettling to me.  I have always had this thesis that at Auction Roto, you should always have one ace.

In my short review of the article writer's "analysis", I have come to the conclusion that there's something seriously wrong.  I think the methodology is "cooked " a little bit.

Informally, I am looking back at SP taken in the first round.  The article implies that a) it is common for SPs to even appear in the ADP of the first round (it is not) and b) Starters drafted in the first round fail to live up to their performance commonly and more often than position players.

Well first, my recent analysis of the last 4 years (since 2017) shows there haven't even been that many Starters to even appear in the commonly accepted ADP of the first round.  Kershaw, Sale, Degrom, Scherzer and Gerrit Cole.

a) even though Sale kind of fell apart in 2019, he did have an elite Whip and K ratio in the innings he pitched.

b) Degrom so far has not been off the list since first appearing.

c) Kershaw has generally been very consistent and it would just be natural to remove a pitcher from the first round due to age, some fall off would already be accounted for.

D) Scherzer was consistently excellent except for last year, but still was decent, posted an Elite K rate and would probably have fallen off the list  naturally due to age.  

E) Cole has been pretty consistently excellent since making the list.

Lots of Position players really fell off the wagon since 2017.  It's not bad, but when you start looking at some of the guys going around 13th and who may have made it to some top 12 lists, like Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez..not to mention2020  shortened season Yelich, Bellinger and Lindor.

In short, I would really like to see a more complete statistical analysis as this article doesn't pass my sniff test.

 

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I'm also a bit skeptical. Four years is a small sample to begin with, and 25% of that sample is the anomaly that is 2020? I don't know about everybody else, but I went in to last year expecting starters to be less valuable, and it's being treated here as if it's a normal year?

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  • 1 month later...
Posted (edited)

got means, rodon, gausman and urias  in the top 25 overall (throw in musgrove to make out  the top 12 sp.)

got ohtani, jdm, castellanos garcia, winker, semien walsh in the top 25 (jdm and castellanos did cost 7th+ rd pick)

 

just getting it down to see who or what lasts.

Edited by colepenhagen
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