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I really hope his draft price stays where it is through this weekend when I draft. He’s my favorite SS to get if I don’t get one of the elite guys in the first two rounds. He should score close to 100 runs and hit for decent power with double digit SB. He won’t hurt in ave or obp either. Dude is underrated for sure. 

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The best thing about Semien is that he will have 2B eligibility after a few games, depending on your league requirements.  He's got to be ranked pretty high amongst the 2B options.  I definitely targeted him in my drafts.  He's very underrated and in a great situation to be successful!

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How is he underrated? He’s hit above .257 once in his career. He has hit 33 and 27 HRs in separate seasons, but otherwise he hasn’t paced to be a 20+ HR guy in his other six seasons. Well, I take that back, he was on pace for 21 in 159 games last season. He’ll steal 10-12 bases which is solid. He just feels like a .250 guy who will hit 20-25 HR and steal 10-12 bases. That’s okay, but doesn’t scream “very underrated” to me. 

I’m not anti-Semien or anything, lol. I just don’t view him as underrated. 

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[...]

I think .280 - 25 HR - 100 R - 75 RBI - 10 steals is a fair projection.,  At that price he compares to Dylan Moore, Tommy Edman or Segura...maybe Muncy on the high end of value.

I think I'd rather have Semien than any of those guys.  Now, if his price creeps up into the top 100 picks we have a different story. Either way, I think he's a sneaky add if you can slide him over to 2B once he gets eligible.

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28 minutes ago, Coach George said:

[...]

I think .280 - 25 HR - 100 R - 75 RBI - 10 steals is a fair projection.,  At that price he compares to Dylan Moore, Tommy Edman or Segura...maybe Muncy on the high end of value.

I think I'd rather have Semien than any of those guys.  Now, if his price creeps up into the top 100 picks we have a different story. Either way, I think he's a sneaky add if you can slide him over to 2B once he gets eligible.

I don't believe .280 is a fair projection at all. He's hit above .257 once in his career. His 2019 season is an outlier at this point, and until he hits .280 again, projecting that is a reach, imho.

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21 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I don't believe .280 is a fair projection at all. He's hit above .257 once in his career. His 2019 season is an outlier at this point, and until he hits .280 again, projecting that is a reach, imho.

That's fair.  .280 could definitely be generous.  He will be in a MUCH better park and in a better lineup.  Home games early on in Florida could definitely be a big boost.

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6 minutes ago, Coach George said:

That's fair.  .280 could definitely be generous.  He will be in a MUCH better park and in a better lineup.  Home games early on in Florida could definitely be a big boost.

I do agree that the needle is up, rather than down. My hesitation is that with a track record as long as his, I'd want to see him have a great season in Toronto before buying him as being undervalued. I'm just skeptical, lol. I don't own any shares, but I wouldn't be upset if I did, if I waited to fill my SS or MI slot. 

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I do agree that the needle is up, rather than down. My hesitation is that with a track record as long as his, I'd want to see him have a great season in Toronto before buying him as being undervalued. I'm just skeptical, lol. I don't own any shares, but I wouldn't be upset if I did, if I waited to fill my SS or MI slot. 

It really depends on the price....if he's inside the top 100 (which has happened in some drafts) then he's not underrated.  If he slides below 125 then I'm definitely on board.

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His composite ADP on fantasypros is 134 which factors in ESPN, Yahoo, RTS, NFBC and Fantrax. The highest ADP among those sites is ESPN with a 107 average. The next highest is 124 so I think we can safely say that a couple weeks before the season begins you can bet he'll most likely be there at or after pick 100 if you want him. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

me likey

Slam and legs [credit Rotoball]. I was hoping for this type of game and it did not take long. He should be fun to own this year assuming health.

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2 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

Slam and legs [credit Rotoball]. I was hoping for this type of game and it did not take long. He should be fun to own this year assuming health.

Gotta credit Gray on that one

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28 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Any insight into where he will be batting in the order upon Springer's return?

Was wondering the same thing yesterday. Though it does look like Springer will be out a little longer now with the quad issue pop up when working his way back from the oblique. I just really hope they keep him in the top 3 but that lineup has an embarrassment of riches so who knows what they’ll do. 

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57 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Any insight into where he will be batting in the order upon Springer's return?

Most likely #2 and Biggio moved down the order

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  • 4 weeks later...

Just launched his 8th HR, to go along with 6 bases already stolen, and he's looking like a lock 25-25 guy right now with an outside chance to go 30-30, play 155 games. His BA now resides at .254, right near his career .253 mark which isn't going to hurt you in today's game. His 2019 fantasy MVP season saw it up to .285 though, and if he gets it much above .270 he's going to push top 30-50 player value. Today's start came at the top of the order, where he had actually struggled to a .182/.256./321 line before his 4-6 day a few days ago. He's a good shot to be top 3 in runs scored the rest of the way if he stays at the top spot. His season to date isn't that different from Javy Baez's, but he seems safer despite my love for Javy. He's def. someone I'd try to acquire if I wanted to trade away a higher priced SS with question marks like Lindor or Baez and receive a reasonable return at the position. 

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12 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

Just launched his 8th HR, to go along with 6 bases already stolen, and he's looking like a lock 25-25 guy right now with an outside chance to go 30-30, play 155 games. His BA now resides at .254, right near his career .253 mark which isn't going to hurt you in today's game. His 2019 fantasy MVP season saw it up to .285 though, and if he gets it much above .270 he's going to push top 30-50 player value. Today's start came at the top of the order, where he had actually struggled to a .182/.256./321 line before his 4-6 day a few days ago. He's a good shot to be top 3 in runs scored the rest of the way if he stays at the top spot. His season to date isn't that different from Javy Baez's, but he seems safer despite my love for Javy. He's def. someone I'd try to acquire if I wanted to trade away a higher priced SS with question marks like Lindor or Baez and receive a reasonable return at the position. 

His statcast is interesting...his xBA is in line with his terrible season last year, drivien by a career-high K-rate, so there could be downside there. But his xwOBAcon (weighted OBA on contact) is almost identical to his 2019 season. So it looks like he might be a mix of 2019 and 2020 -- like last year, not making enough contact, but unlike last year, smoking the ball when he does make contact. And he's still fast as hell, 88th percentile sprint speed, and not hesitant to run.

Where does that leave us? Put me down for .245/30/25, with upside for more. Tremendous value for where he was drafted, ESPECIALLY at the tire fire that is 2B. 

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