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Ian Happ 2021 Outlook


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Once a polarizing player in the fantasy community, I feel like Happ is settling in as a known commodity who delivers results but still seems to get pushed down draft boards farther than he should be because the skill set is "boring", not unlike the years during which one could get a bargain on teammate Anthony Rizzo.  And unlike Rizzo, Happ's not a batting average asset, so his appeal might be limited more to OBP leagues.  But at his current consensus ADP of 156, I'm buying in even in AVG leagues.  He's made a lot of improvements to his K% in the last couple of years, and the power is legit.  I know everyone's down on the Cubs offense, and batting leadoff isn't going to help the RBI numbers, but I see enough to like to justify taking him ahead of many of the names ahead of him, and having one more year of 2B/3B/OF eligibility in Yahoo leagues makes him a no-brainer there.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Once a polarizing player in the fantasy community, I feel like Happ is settling in as a known commodity who delivers results but still seems to get pushed down draft boards farther than he should be because the skill set is "boring", not unlike the years during which one could get a bargain on teammate Anthony Rizzo.  And unlike Rizzo, Happ's not a batting average asset, so his appeal might be limited more to OBP leagues.  But at his current consensus ADP of 156, I'm buying in even in AVG leagues.  He's made a lot of improvements to his K% in the last couple of years, and the power is legit.  I know everyone's down on the Cubs offense, and batting leadoff isn't going to help the RBI numbers, but I see enough to like to justify taking him ahead of many of the names ahead of him, and having one more year of 2B/3B/OF eligibility in Yahoo leagues makes him a no-brainer there.

I couldn't agree more with everything you are saying. People are undervaluing this guy for some reason. I will enjoy Happ on allot of my teams at his adp.

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For some reason people think he is a boring player but he has plenty of power and throws in occasional SB. Leads off with a solid OBP, should be an asset in R. If he had 30 HR, 8 SB, 170 R+RBI would anyone be surprised? His upside is that high.

It doesn't make sense to me that he is going multiple rounds later than other 2B/3B like Muncy and Moustakas who have similar skill set (actually with less steals, and both had lower AVG than Happ last year). I also see Edman and McNeil going multiple rounds ahead of Happ, which again doesn't make sense to me.

 

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On 3/24/2021 at 1:55 PM, Sidearmer said:

For some reason people think he is a boring player but he has plenty of power and throws in occasional SB. Leads off with a solid OBP, should be an asset in R. If he had 30 HR, 8 SB, 170 R+RBI would anyone be surprised? His upside is that high.

It doesn't make sense to me that he is going multiple rounds later than other 2B/3B like Muncy and Moustakas who have similar skill set (actually with less steals, and both had lower AVG than Happ last year). I also see Edman and McNeil going multiple rounds ahead of Happ, which again doesn't make sense to me.

 

Most probably think of him as an outfielder only, since most formats that’s the only eligibility he has. 
 

As young as he is, there could be a couple ..270-.280 BA seasons ahead too.

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On 3/24/2021 at 1:55 PM, Sidearmer said:

 I also see Edman and McNeil going multiple rounds ahead of Happ, which again doesn't make sense to me.

 

Got to agree to disagree here.  Edman is a SB play. Mcneil is one of the most consistent high average guys out there.  In a 5X5, Happ's HRs are more replaceable.  Happ excels more in an OBP league.

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

Got to agree to disagree here.  Edman is a SB play. Mcneil is one of the most consistent high average guys out there.  In a 5X5, Happ's HRs are more replaceable.  Happ excels more in an OBP league.

Edman had 2 SB and was caught 4 times in 55 games last year and won't be a plus contributor anywhere else. I don't get the Edman hype at all, IMO. You hope for something like 12 HR and 12 SB with solid average with him, which is nothing special. You can get that from guys going 50-100 picks later (Solak, Wong, Dubon, Profar, etc.)

I can get around on McNeil being more valuable overall, although he's going 4 picks ahead of Happ (Yahoo where they are both 2B eligible). There's no way I would agree they are that far apart.
 

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8 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Edman had 2 SB and was caught 4 times in 55 games last year and won't be a plus contributor anywhere else. I don't get the Edman hype at all, IMO. You hope for something like 12 HR and 12 SB with solid average with him, which is nothing special. You can get that from guys going 50-100 picks later (Solak, Wong, Dubon, Profar, etc.)

I can get around on McNeil being more valuable overall, although he's going 4 picks ahead of Happ (Yahoo where they are both 2B eligible). There's no way I would agree they are that far apart.
 

Can't really go by 2020 stats alone.  His 2019 was very different and was on pace for 20+ SBs, plus his minor league stats generally showed he was stealing bases.  He hit .300 that year. His K rate increased in 2020 but so did his walk rate.  Edman has the potential to be a 3 category stud with a handful of HRs and contributing in the all so scarce SB department.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, B&F said:

Walking a ton.  Not much else.

And hitting at the top of a lineup that is absolutely putrid. He's pretty firmly parked on m bench right now. Nobody in that lineup looks good. 

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Not happening so far guys. What's the issue here, is something off with his swing mechanics?

Only 8/50 and 1 dong. Not the start I hoped from him. At least he's walking a lot as my league counts OBP.

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On 4/13/2021 at 4:23 PM, CardiacDO said:

And hitting at the top of a lineup that is absolutely putrid. He's pretty firmly parked on m bench right now. Nobody in that lineup looks good. 

It's not putrid though. Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras. They just aren't hitting yet, that has to change.

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2 hours ago, swfcdan said:

It's not putrid though. Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras. They just aren't hitting yet, that has to change.

Yeah, on paper they look great. In reality they are the worst offense in baseball. They haven't hit consistently as a team in over 4 years. At this point they are who they are.  As for Happ, he just looks timid at the plate.  Rarely does he ever not go deep into a count.  But in this case, I'm not sure it is a good thing. He needs to actually swing the bat and not just sit there praying not to strike out. 

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2 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Not happening so far guys. What's the issue here, is something off with his swing mechanics?

Only 8/50 and 1 dong. Not the start I hoped from him. At least he's walking a lot as my league counts OBP.

Everything looks pretty normal to me at a quick glance. xBA is .237 and xSLG is .454. His 27% K rate is on par for him. The BB% is a bit high at 17.5% so maybe he's been a bit passive.

I don't think anything's "broken". H'es only swinging at 40% of pitches which is a bit lower than usual. I think the hits will come.

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