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Pitcher substances/spin rate crackdown


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4 hours ago, PinstripeGM said:

Posted this on the June closers thread; David Cone was saying a couple of nights ago during the Yankees telecast vs the Twins, a spin rate increase/decrease of +/- 100 is negligible where a spin rate increase/decrease of +/- 300-500 is a flag. Gerrit Cole was in that +/- 100. Not sure about some of the other names mentioned previously. In the case of AroIdis Chapman, I'm more  concerned about the 5 MPH drop that Fbaseballgod mentioned in the closer thread and figuring out is this a case of using/ not using the sticky stuff or a sign of a potential injury.  I'll let the posters familiar with spin rate shed more light but I'm more concerned with any of my pitchers having a 5 MPH drop.  

Yeah I saw your comment there which is what reminded me of Stone's conversation, thanks for reposting. It's weird to think we'll look at the box scores and be looking at spin rate +/- potentially but it seems like that's where we're at.

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Only if you ignore the fact that MLB has used the same empty sternly-worded threat approach before but didn't do any enforcement.  This led to a loss in credibility, and a sense that MLB was just cove

"It's so hard to grip the ball," a frustrated Cole said after the New York Yankees' 3-2 win. "For Pete's sake, it's part of the reason why almost every player on the field has had something, regardles

I'm drafting all knuckleballers this year. 

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I have no idea if this thread will be allowed to exist, but I wanted to see how everyone is handling this MLB crackdown on goop and the resulting spin rates falling? Just case by case basis? Looking to trade if your guy has struggled the last couple times through? 

I'm personally inclined to hold and try to get more data on how much the lack of goop is gonna affect my guys, but obviously with every less than great start trade value diminishes. Just wanted to see how yall were approaching this midseason quandry.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Spin Rate 2021 Outlook

I trust guys who rely on the cutter to best weather any changes because that pitch is apparently effective according to its seam shifted wake, rather than how much it moves. 
 

Burns’ cutter has a 45 deg variation between its spin-predicted movement and its actual movement, and should still fool hitters as its spin decreases.  It may be even more deceptive with slower rotation if the spin axis is easier to read. Pirates knocked him around some, with seeing-eye singles and no hard contact. I’m trying to buy high while his stock is soft, even though the recent uptick in walks may be related to slippery fingers.

The linked article includes a nice list of guys with good variations like Burns, many of whom I’m holding or looking to make solid offers for when they stumble.

 

Edited by C_McGillicuddy
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6 hours ago, C_McGillicuddy said:

I trust guys who rely on the cutter to best weather any changes because that pitch is apparently effective according to its seam shifted wake, rather than how much it moves. 
 

Burns’ cutter has a 45 deg variation between its spin-predicted movement and its actual movement, and should still fool hitters as its spin decreases.  It may be even more deceptive with slower rotation if the spin axis is easier to read. Pirates knocked him around some, with seeing-eye singles and no hard contact. I’m trying to buy high while his stock is soft, even though the recent uptick in walks may be related to slippery fingers.

The linked article includes a nice list of guys with good variations like Burns, many of whom I’m holding or looking to make solid offers for when they stumble.

 

Burnes is one of the guys I was curious about, his spin rate on the cutter dropped 2 starts ago, but he was still awesome, and it dropped again vs the Pirates with less than awesome results. This article informs a lot. Thank you. 

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On 6/6/2021 at 4:03 PM, umphrey said:

As a Brewers fan, I am scared for our 3 good starters if they actually crack down

Woodruff might actually get better because of the crackdown (His repertoire isn't one based on spin and as many of the leagues other elites regress, his numbers will look even better in comparison.)

Burnes worries me a lot. 

Not sure what to make of Peralta, his fastball is VAA aided more than ridiculous spin I think similar to degrom. The slider may suffer. Going to monitor his next start and take a look.

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1 hour ago, hgh22 said:

Burnes is one of the guys I was curious about, his spin rate on the cutter dropped 2 starts ago, but he was still awesome, and it dropped again vs the Pirates with less than awesome results. This article informs a lot. Thank you. 

 

Really hard to say. Im curious how it plays out for Burnes myself. His cutter is not a typical cutter; it's got rise to it which makes it one of the best pitches in baseball (and makes it play off his two-seamer so well); that is due to the elite spin he gets. I am expecting some regression from Burnes, he won't be otherworldly like he has been this season but still probably very very good. 

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Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) Tweeted:
#OTD in 2017, Matt Szczur reached on a dropped third strike when...the ball got stuck to Yadier Molina's chest protector...

2 batters later, Kyle Schwarber mashed a 3-run homer and the Cubs went on to win 6-4. https://t.co/Q68wFBFIWr

This is normal 😆😆😆

 

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14 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) Tweeted:
#OTD in 2017, Matt Szczur reached on a dropped third strike when...the ball got stuck to Yadier Molina's chest protector...

2 batters later, Kyle Schwarber mashed a 3-run homer and the Cubs went on to win 6-4. https://t.co/Q68wFBFIWr

This is normal 😆😆😆

 

I remember that play happening live, and being completely outraged that nothing came of it. Obviously as a Cubs fan Yadi Molina is a villain to me, and the fact that they didn't even bother to investigate or anything of that sort, just unbelievable. I'm actually getting agitated now thinking about it. They gave some bs explanation and was in the lineup the next day. 

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1 hour ago, Richard Kimble said:

I remember that play happening live, and being completely outraged that nothing came of it. Obviously as a Cubs fan Yadi Molina is a villain to me, and the fact that they didn't even bother to investigate or anything of that sort, just unbelievable. I'm actually getting agitated now thinking about it. They gave some bs explanation and was in the lineup the next day. 

I think they didn't bother doing anything about it because a lot of pitchers were using stuff - if not all of them - and nobody wanted to pull on that thread. Much like the steroid era, it was an open secret and the lack of crackdowns on it were all but an open encouragement to use whatever you could.

 

Quote

Travis Sawchik of The Score reports that through Saturday, 67.2 percent of MLB pitchers had a reduction in spin rate since June 3 and that 36 percent of them saw a significant reduction...

Meantime, it's possible offense is rising. The league batting average this season has hovered around .236. In the past week, two teams are hitting over .300, four are over .290, nine are over .270 and 14 are over .250. Through Saturday, the league was hitting .246/.318/.418 with 4.75 runs per game per team, compared to .239/.315/.397 with 4.41 runs per game per team in May. Strikeouts are slightly down, too.

Granted, small sample size and the weather getting warmer are factors, but it's hard to imagine the crackdown isn't having an impact. 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-foreign-substance-crack-down-how-the-leagues-enforcement-of-rules-against-doctored-baseballs-is-working/

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4 minutes ago, collucho said:

I think Framber Valdez is screwed. Might be looking to sell high.

I just don't see a reason to speculate on guys like this, or overreact to a 1-3 start sample size; you're creating a narrative that may not be there. Valdez is due some regression, as are most of the pitchers in the game. If, after a larger body of 5-6 starts in which guys like Bauer, Corbin Burnes, etc., show a sharp decline in spin and a decrease in performance, then you can make a decision. Its something to monitor like velocity now.

If you see enough of a decline in performance, you simply have to downgrade them to 75-80 cents on the dollar or whatever price point you're comfortable with and target a safe replacement. It reeks of panic right now to go selling these guys, so other managers will naturally be wary of trade offers. It depends who you're talking about-Valdez was a pretty inexpensive cost, but a guy like Bauer or Burnes is hard to just trade away without more information. Sit tight and keep an eye on your aces, don't panic.

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16 minutes ago, collucho said:

I think Framber Valdez is screwed. Might be looking to sell high.

Based on what? Valdez is a sinker-baller… high-spin wouldn’t help his main pitch type. And looking at his start from yesterday, his spin rates were all normal. Valdez is the type of pitcher you should be buying right now. 

 

The guys you want to fade are high-spin four seam types with power breaking stuff like Cole etc.

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6 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Based on what? Valdez is a sinker-baller… high-spin wouldn’t help his main pitch type. And looking at his start from yesterday, his spin rates were all normal. Valdez is the type of pitcher you should be buying right now. 

 

The guys you want to fade are high-spin four seam types with power breaking stuff like Cole etc.

Based on the fact that he is on the Astros and led the league in pitches over 3000 rpm in 2020. 

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

IMO pitchers should be allowed to use that spider tack. If not wait batters are going to get hit more than usual.
 

anybody remember Tony Conigliaro? 

I'm not sure there's data to support this mentality, but we sure hear it a lot.

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6 hours ago, shakestreet said:

IMO pitchers should be allowed to use that spider tack. If not wait batters are going to get hit more than usual.
 

anybody remember Tony Conigliaro? 

Josh Donaldson actually spoke to the opposite of this, hit batters and walks have actually risen in recent years because the pitchers can't effectively control these pitches there's so much spin and movement created... So no, it's not about control, quite the opposite.

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Major League Baseball is expected to announce Tuesday that it will suspend players caught with any foreign substance for 10 days with pay to help curtail the widespread use of grip enhancers by pitchers around the league, sources familiar with the plans told ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31633611/mlb-players-caught-foreign-substance-face-10-day-suspension-sources-say

 

 

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Yeah the punishment is only 10 days?  And WITH pay?  Since teams like to rest starters by skipping a start or two during the season anyway this "punishment" seems like it won't do anything at all.  Not even a slap on the wrist.  More a tap on the wrist.

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Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Major League Baseball will announce Tuesday that it will suspend players caught using a foreign substance 10 days with pay.

The enforcement will begin on June 21 and will cover everything from a sunscreen-and-rosin combination to Spider Tack, Passan says. Passan notes that the league hasn't suspended a player for use of a foreign substance in more than six years, but the crackdown has begun in hopes of curtailing what's perceived to be widespread use of grip enhancers across baseball.

Source: ESPN.com      Jun 14, 2021, 10:27 PM ET

 

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah the punishment is only 10 days?  And WITH pay?  Since teams like to rest starters by skipping a start or two during the season anyway this "punishment" seems like it won't do anything at all.  Not even a slap on the wrist.  More a tap on the wrist.

 

Only the one hand stays on the other a bit...too long...

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