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David Montgomery 2021 Outlook


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Have to think Monty's value takes a bit of hit after this signing. Still in the RB1 conversation?

Bears signed RB Damien Williams, formerly of the Chiefs, to a one-year contract. 

Williams, released by KC this month after opting out of the 2020 season, has plenty of familiarity with Chicago's coaching staff. He worked with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in Miami and knows head coach Matt Nagy's offensive scheme from their days together in Kansas City. Williams' addition to the Bears backfield very much complicates David Montgomery's path to the massive volume he saw in 2020. A mere four running backs last season had more total opportunity (rushing attempts plus targets) than Montgomery, who thrived in a series of great late-season matchups. J.D. McKissic, amazingly, was the only back to run more pass routes than Monty in 2020. That's not happening again. Pass-catching specialist Tarik Cohen coming back from injury and the Williams signing are major hits to Montgomery's usage and upside in the Bears offense. Williams will be a frequent target of Zero RB drafters in 2021 seasonal leagues.

Mar 24, 2021, 12:59 PM ET
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That last sentence needs to be taken into account. The end of the season that has owners so excited came with him getting the bulk of the Bears’ RB touches against run defenses that were giving up RB

You mean having Andy Dalton behind center won't open things up for him?

Played almost the entire season without Tarik and his targets doubled last season over 2019.  Even if Damien OR Cohen split time with Montgomery to the level Cohen was getting in 2019, I expect Monty

Interesting situation.

 

I think the kid is a baller but sometimes the opportunities just won’t be there. This feels like one of those moments. I 100% believe in his skill but I also don’t think Cohen and Williams will ride the bench. Because of the shared workload he slips to an average RB2 but his ceiling is what you saw last year so there is that.

 

🤷‍♂️

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Watching how he ended the year, I was excited to be jumping on the bandwagon for him this year.

But yeah, the Bears are likely going to stink.  Immobile Andy Dalton won't help matters and likely Monty would be facing stacked boxes.  

Damian also just isn't a passing down back, he's proven he can be a three down back.  This might be a 50-50 "hot hand" backfield.

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Played almost the entire season without Tarik and his targets doubled last season over 2019.  Even if Damien OR Cohen split time with Montgomery to the level Cohen was getting in 2019, I expect Monty will finish around RB20-25.  If both guys are getting reps alongside Montgomery then it might even be RB3 territory in half or full PPR.   He'll be slightly higher in standard

Montgomery was one of the highest RBs with 74% snap percentage.  His 707 snaps was 2nd in the NFL.  I imagine that will come down.  Snap percentages were 45%, 54% and 56% first 3 weeks of the season with Cohen around.  

He got 3 targets each game Weeks 1-3.  Averaged 5 a game from there on out.  

Andy Dalton doesn't inspire much confidence in the Bears' offense.  I would argue it's a downgrade from Trubisky.  We'll see if they add someone in April.  

Montgomery wasn't bad when used in the passing game - he was great actually.  Ranked right there with Cook, Taylor and CEH in Y/R.  Unfortunately I see Nagy using the other two guys more than they should be, most likely to his own demise, if they're both healthy.  

Right now he's ranked RB20 on FantasyPros so I guess if he lands there in the draft I would consider him alongside Carson, Ron Jones, and Mostert.   Think I prefer Carson and Jones for sure.  Would much rather grab Mike Evans or DJ Moore in that area over all these RBs.  

Edited by Fort4242
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I liked what i saw of d mont the last few weeks of the year, samien williams doesnt scare me, williams showed last year he doesnt have the love for the game by opting out on a superbowl contending team.  Hes just riding his time and getting whatever paycheck he can at this point

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6 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I liked what i saw of d mont the last few weeks of the year, samien williams doesnt scare me, williams showed last year he doesnt have the love for the game by opting out on a superbowl contending team.  Hes just riding his time and getting whatever paycheck he can at this point

He opted out due to his mom being diagnosed with stage 4 cancer and not wanting to be a risk/being able to care for her. His love for his mom > his love for the game tells me he's got a good head on his shoulders 🤷‍♂️

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1 hour ago, beotos said:

He should be

Alright - I’m always willing to be convinced.  Why should he be?

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Alright - I’m always willing to be convinced.  Why should he be?


his talent.

 

1st year back from an ACL can be mixed results so Cohen may not resume full duties he had before his injury right away.

 

damien Williams has his own injury history and hasn’t played football for 2 years and is close to 30

 

Monty proved he could carry the team to the playoffs with bottom 5 QB play. So he has proven his worth to the coaches.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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57 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


his talent.

 

1st year back from an ACL can be mixed results so Cohen may not resume full duties he had before his injury right away.

 

damien Williams has his own injury history and hasn’t played football for 2 years and is close to 30

 

Monty proved he could carry the team to the playoffs with bottom 5 QB play. So he has proven his worth to the coaches.

Williams’s last football played came last year - and it was a pretty darn good performance (despite Mahomes’s inevitable MVP award for that game).  I guess 28 is close to 30.

I like Monty’s talent - but this team somehow managed to downgrade at QB, still has O-line issues and Monty is no longer projected to see a James-Robinsonian ~100% snap share with Cohen back and Damien in the fold.  And the schedule won’t be nearly as easy as the dream schedule he had down the stretch.

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11 hours ago, BMcP said:

Williams’s last football played came last year - and it was a pretty darn good performance (despite Mahomes’s inevitable MVP award for that game).  I guess 28 is close to 30.

I like Monty’s talent - but this team somehow managed to downgrade at QB, still has O-line issues and Monty is no longer projected to see a James-Robinsonian ~100% snap share with Cohen back and Damien in the fold.  And the schedule won’t be nearly as easy as the dream schedule he had down the stretch.

That last sentence needs to be taken into account. The end of the season that has owners so excited came with him getting the bulk of the Bears’ RB touches against run defenses that were giving up RB points like Oprah gave out prizes. GB twice, Detroit, Houston, Minny, Jax...all RB-friendly matchups for a RB who had no real threat to his snap count. Eight of his 10 TDs came in those final six games. 

Even if he still got every snap in 2021, I’d downgrade him and wouldn’t be willing to consider him an RB1. But now they go to a lesser QB...Cohen will be back...Damien has been signed. Fully 100% or not, Cohen will take back some of those targets, and Damien will take some carries and targets. 

Maybe in the end, I’ll be wrong. I just don’t see a top 12 RB when I look at Monty, much less the RB4 he was in half PPR last season. 

Edited by Flyman75
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17 hours ago, BMcP said:

Alright - I’m always willing to be convinced.  Why should he be?

Just based on his 2020 breakout, he belongs in the RB1 conversation. Right now he's probably in my tier 3 rankings for RB. He's a fine RB1 if you don't go RB in the first 2 rounds.

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1 hour ago, beotos said:

Just based on his 2020 breakout, he belongs in the RB1 conversation. Right now he's probably in my tier 3 rankings for RB. He's a fine RB1 if you don't go RB in the first 2 rounds.

I totally understand wanting to target him if you prefer to wait on drafting a RB - I was just advising against treating him as a top-12 option at the position.

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3 hours ago, beotos said:

Just based on his 2020 breakout, he belongs in the RB1 conversation. Right now he's probably in my tier 3 rankings for RB. He's a fine RB1 if you don't go RB in the first 2 rounds.

I don’t believe in his breakout, nor do I believe he belongs in the RB1 convo because of my disbelief in it, along with the return of Cohen and the addition of Williams. 

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Burn Of The Year candidate right here.

 

Mediocre most of last season "erased" by weak end of schedule season memorable production now mixed with competition he didn't have last season. Then Andy Dalton is sprinkled on top. Enjoy that "RB1" price tag. Hahaha

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One of the easiest landmines to avoid for the 2021 season.

Don't forget that Nagy is an Andy Reid disciple and (tries to) run the same offensive system Damien Williams thrived in for KC the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Monty will be drafted the highest, but I suspect Damien Williams will be the most valuable guy in this backfield.

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Even without the addition of Williams, I didn't see him repeating as an RB1. He had a good year based off his last 6 games with a cupcake schedule, I would bet that ends up being the best 6 game stretch he will see in his career. 

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I mean, in PPR he was pretty solid all season. Without checking I’m willing to go guess he has 2 or less games with single digit points. He wasn’t the most exciting for the first half, but he stayed healthy and was consistent. I doubt he is on my team this year based on ADP, but I do like the talent. 

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3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

I mean, in PPR he was pretty solid all season. Without checking I’m willing to go guess he has 2 or less games with single digit points. He wasn’t the most exciting for the first half, but he stayed healthy and was consistent. I doubt he is on my team this year based on ADP, but I do like the talent. 

He had three below 10 in PPR and five in Half PPR. The talent, for me, is Meh. The QB is barf, and the situation with the return of Cohen and signing of Williams is Ugh. 

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Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he will call offensive plays in 2021. 

Nagy, an Andy Reid protege, called Chicago's offensive plays in 2018, when he won Coach of the Year on his way to a 12-4 season. He gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor last November with the team in an offensive quagmire. The Bears were 29th in scoring and offensive yardage when Nagy relinquished play calling to Lazor. They finished the season 26th in yardage and 22nd in scoring. Nagy will look to rediscover the formula that made him one of the NFL's premiere up-and-coming head coaches three short years ago, this time with Andy Dalton under center. 

Apr 2, 2021, 11:49 AM ET
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Fantasy football rankings 2021: Computer model identifies NFL sleepers, breakouts, busts, top 300 players. SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated the entire 2021 NFL season 10,000 times

Top 2021 Fantasy football picks

Another shocker: Bears running back David Montgomery stumbles, even though he set career-highs with 54 receptions and over 1,000 yards rushing last season. The third-year player out of Iowa State benefitted from a season-ending injury to Tarik Cohen a year ago to the tune of 301 touches (fourth in the NFL) and 1,508 yards from scrimmage, which ranked fifth.

However, Cohen should be fully healthy for Week 1 and will resume his role as the Bears' pass-catching back, thus limiting Montgomery's touches. But an even bigger threat to Montgomery's work as a runner comes via the Bears signing Damien Williams in free agency. Williams, formerly of the Chiefs, opted out of the 2020 season, but was the team's lead ball-carrier during their 2019 Super Bowl season.

Montgomery has proven to be a dependable yet unspectacular running back, evident by his pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry average. He's part of a crowded backfield in a below-average offense that could have a rookie quarterback starting at some point during the season. He's one of the 2021 Fantasy football busts to avoid.

 
 
 
 
 
 
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