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David Montgomery 2021 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah nah thanks. I've never seen anything useful come after those words in Fantasy land.

Im assuming the computer model is some analytics formula which has been accurate in the past from the blurbs i've seen. I've Never paid for their service though so i don't know 100%. Either way, Ignore it, or give it credene I just thought I'd pass it along.

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1 minute ago, NInsko said:

Im assuming the computer model is some analytics formula which has been accurate in the past from the blurbs i've seen

Mostly correct, except in my experience they are rarely accurate. I know mine usually aren't ;)

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6 hours ago, NInsko said:

Fantasy football rankings 2021: Computer model identifies NFL sleepers, breakouts, busts, top 300 players. SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated the entire 2021 NFL season 10,000 times

Top 2021 Fantasy football picks

Another shocker: Bears running back David Montgomery stumbles, even though he set career-highs with 54 receptions and over 1,000 yards rushing last season. The third-year player out of Iowa State benefitted from a season-ending injury to Tarik Cohen a year ago to the tune of 301 touches (fourth in the NFL) and 1,508 yards from scrimmage, which ranked fifth.

However, Cohen should be fully healthy for Week 1 and will resume his role as the Bears' pass-catching back, thus limiting Montgomery's touches. But an even bigger threat to Montgomery's work as a runner comes via the Bears signing Damien Williams in free agency. Williams, formerly of the Chiefs, opted out of the 2020 season, but was the team's lead ball-carrier during their 2019 Super Bowl season.

Montgomery has proven to be a dependable yet unspectacular running back, evident by his pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry average. He's part of a crowded backfield in a below-average offense that could have a rookie quarterback starting at some point during the season. He's one of the 2021 Fantasy football busts to avoid.

 
 
 
 
 
 

I agree with everything except the unspectacular part. Montgomery is a great running back.  But bad offense, horrible line,  and three headed backfield is too much to overcome. 

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On 3/27/2021 at 8:30 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

damien Williams has his own injury history and hasn’t played football for 2 years and is close to 30

 

On 3/27/2021 at 9:32 PM, BMcP said:

Williams’s last football played came last year - and it was a pretty darn good performance (despite Mahomes’s inevitable MVP award for that game).  I guess 28 is close to 30.

In fairness to DHC, he turned 29 within a week after both of your comments, as his birthday was April 3rd

So considering he'll be over 29 and a half by the end of this season, the official ruling is that he is indeed close to 30. And he'll be pretty close to 2 years since his last football game by the start of the season to boot.

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1 hour ago, ZappB said:

This is somewhat off-topic, and the mods can feel free to move this to the Montgomery thread, but I'm curious for your thoughts about Montgomery.  He seems higher in your rankings that I'd think he should be.  I did have him last year in a half-PPR if that makes any difference and probably gives me a bit of bias.  Even after Cohen's injury, Montgomery's stats weren't great until after the bye week when of course Montgomery exploded with a great schedule.  8 of his 10 total TDs came after the bye week (week 12-17), and from quickly looking at the gamelog it looks like his rushing yards per game about doubled after the bye week too.  Going into 2021, we have Cohen seemingly coming back and the signing of Damien Williams.  Without the pass catching volume or that great schedule, I see Montgomery as solid safe RB2/3 but with no upside.


Moving this over to the Montgomery thread. For Montgomery, my rank of 18 has him firmly in mid-RB2 range. While Cohen is slated to be back and D.Williams in now onboard, I don't think either are huge threats. Cohen is coming off a serious injury and Williams is close to 30 years old and hasn't played a real football game in close to two years (thanks @DerrickHenrysCleats). I think with the way Montgomery finished 2020, the Bears SHOULD be smart enough to give Montgomery a good workload both rushing and receiving. Now will that necessarily be the case with Nagy and staff? We don't know for sure. But a rank of 18 amongst RB's seems reasonable to me. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Monty fall out of the top 20 though.

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36 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

In fairness to DHC, he turned 29 within a week after both of your comments, as his birthday was April 3rd

So considering he'll be over 29 and a half by the end of this season, the official ruling is that he is indeed close to 30. And he'll be pretty close to 2 years since his last football game by the start of the season to boot.

Why does the timing of our posts have any relevance to his age at the time of his last performance?  I guess more importantly, why are we still talking about Damien Williams?!

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Since Montgomery came into the league, only one RB has been harder to tackle. Alvin Kamara. Monty has been harder to bring down than every other RB in the league.

This dude has become so underrated, in actual football. I do think his situation caps his fantasy upside a bit, but I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he had an RB1 season. He's so good.

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2 hours ago, ZappB said:

This is somewhat off-topic, and the mods can feel free to move this to the Montgomery thread, but I'm curious for your thoughts about Montgomery.  He seems higher in your rankings that I'd think he should be.  I did have him last year in a half-PPR if that makes any difference and probably gives me a bit of bias.  Even after Cohen's injury, Montgomery's stats weren't great until after the bye week when of course Montgomery exploded with a great schedule.  8 of his 10 total TDs came after the bye week (week 12-17), and from quickly looking at the gamelog it looks like his rushing yards per game about doubled after the bye week too.  Going into 2021, we have Cohen seemingly coming back and the signing of Damien Williams.  Without the pass catching volume or that great schedule, I see Montgomery as solid safe RB2/3 but with no upside.

I'm not incredibly familiar with the Bears or Montgomery himself.  But, he was 5th in rushing yards, 7th in targets, and 4th overall finish on only 15 games played.  Granted, Zeke, Barkley, and CMC were afk, and I'm definitely not betting on a repeat top 5 performance.  He's currently RB15 on my list, so not even an RB1.  I understand Cohen is coming back and Williams was signed, but... there's so incredibly few teams in the league (CAR) who don't split in some fashion.  Derrick Henry dominates his backfield, and still give sup 20% of the teams carries to backups.  Derrick Henry played 704 snaps last year.  D.Monty on 1 less game, played 759.  This can be taken 2 ways, less snaps = less production... or... you can realize that a RB doesn't need a pace of 800 snaps a year to be a top RB.  He has plenty of snaps he can sacrifice to the other backs.

Many of you seem to be giving all of the credit of his late season surge to his schedule.  This seems like correlation not causation to me.  Do the other RBs not get to play against those same defenses?  Obviously some variation and conference matter, but in general, he's not the only RB in the league that got a few good matchups.  He's still in the same division, will he not be playing these same teams again this year?  More importantly, his fantasy production took a massive spike in the exact same games, in which Trubisky returned to the team.

Trubisky played Week 1, 2, half of 3, 12-17.  Removing Week 3 from the data as Trubisky(22att)/Foles(29att) split about equally:
In the games where Trubisky was the QB (8), Montgomery averaged 23PPG.  In the games Foles was QB (6) Montgomery averaged 12.1 PPG.  TDs can be fluky, so for reference in Trubisky games, Montgomery averaged 93 rushing yards a game.  In Foles games, Montgomery averaged 47 rushing yards per game.  If you think this is simple coincidence, I would point you to Allen Robinson's stats, which have an extremely similar contrast between Foles and Trubisky.

I'm not going to pretend that Trubisky is a good QB, nor am I going to pretend Dalton is.  Dalton is serviceable.  He's helped AJG be an elite fantasy WR, I don't see why he can't do the same for AR15.  Mixon wasn't crippled by Dalton, and I personally think the Bears are better than the Bengals, but that's not saying much.  I also don't think Dalton is the starting QB for the full season.  I have a hard time believing Fields doesn't work his way onto the field.  I don't know if Marquise Goodwin makes the team, but despite his 1 trick pony nature, his speed does command some attention.

Anyways, Montgomery was 3rd in the league, with 66.7% of his team's red zone carriers, D.Henry had 67.0%.  His % was over 60 for both rushes inside the 10 and 5 as well.  Cohen is a zero threat at the goal line IMO and Williams is a 29 year old career backup who's career high in carries is 111, and if memory serves, that was due to K.Hunt kicking a woman or something?  I could be wrong.

I think Montgomery's career path is trending upwards, I liked what I saw to close out the year, and as long as A.Rob and J.Fields are around, I think the offense is plenty to produce an RB1.  Williams career high rushing TDs is 5, and he's slightly smaller than Montgomery, so he doesn't have vulture written on him, and Mont wasn't TD dependent with just 10 total last year.

I just noticed Montgomery ran the 2nd most routes among RBs in 2020.  Cohen will definitely eat into that, but same theory as above, he has some room to fall and still be in RB1 territory, not to mention he handled his targets and usage incredibly well last year, so I doubt they just revert 100% to Cohen.

Honestly, when I'm looking at 2021, Bears and Bengals, Mixon and Montgomery, their careers and production, Gio(then) and Cohen behind them... If I don't squint real hard, I'm not sure I see a difference.  Yet Mixon is being drafted an entire round earlier.  I have them right next to each other at RB15 and 16.  If anything, I may be too low on Montgomery.  Maybe he jumps Josh Jacobs, but I prefer Chris Carson to both of them, as he has the most upside (and injury risk to be fair).  Carson to me is a guy who could easily have a 1500/15 year on SEA and finish top 5.  I don't see that for either of these guys in 2021.  Jacobs is probably my next deep dive to wrap up this tier.

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Since Montgomery came into the league, only one RB has been harder to tackle. Alvin Kamara. Monty has been harder to bring down than every other RB in the league.

This dude has become so underrated, in actual football. I do think his situation caps his fantasy upside a bit, but I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he had an RB1 season. He's so good.

Outside of his dominant Week 12-16 stretch he hasnt been good. He has a solid floor but he's they type of RB that you should usually fade. His best chance of repeating as a RB1 would be Fields coming in and supercharging the offense.

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Correct if wrong but...Didn’t he start his dominating run once nagy gave up play calling?  I’d feel much better about the kid if Nagy wasn’t playcalling.

having owned him on a few teams last year and watched him for that epic run, he really surprised me with what he showed out there talent and athleticism wise.  This forum has been very down on his talent and calling him a JAG for a long time now but he’s a top 15th percentile talent from what I saw.

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50 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:

Correct if wrong but...Didn’t he start his dominating run once nagy gave up play calling?  I’d feel much better about the kid if Nagy wasn’t playcalling.

having owned him on a few teams last year and watched him for that epic run, he really surprised me with what he showed out there talent and athleticism wise.  This forum has been very down on his talent and calling him a JAG for a long time now but he’s a top 15th percentile talent from what I saw.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31183808/chicago-bears-coach-matt-nagy-returning-calling-plays-offense

😬

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28 minutes ago, Corleone said:

This is the number one reason I’d be hesitant on him, not Damien Williams or Cohen, not the talent, not the QB.  It’s the fact that Nagy is going back to playcalling.  Monty looked like a different player without Nagy at the helm.

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16 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Cohen played 2 and a half games last year. D-Mont's breakout was like 10 weeks after Cohen was done for the year. C'mon now.

So you agree he got better after Cohen was out and Nagy stopped play calling 

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56 minutes ago, hard1 said:

So you agree he got better after Cohen was out and Nagy stopped play calling 

There seems to be zero correlation. 

After Cohen got hurt, Montgomery didn't do any better the second half of that game. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that.

Then, nine weeks later, he went on a tear. 

This is like saying, "man, I lost some weight this month! Must be the results of that diet I tried two years ago."

Edit -Just talking about Cohen. Nagy giving up plays and the soft schedule were clearly factors. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

There seems to be zero correlation. 

After Cohen got hurt, Montgomery didn't do any better the second half of that game. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that. Or the game after that.

Then, nine weeks later, he went on a tear. 

This is like saying, "man, I lost some weight this month! Must be the results of that diet I tried two years ago."

Edit -Just talking about Cohen. Nagy giving up plays and the soft schedule were clearly factors. 

Yeah exactly and everything broke right for him in the second half. Was def the perfect storm of a finish

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14 hours ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

Would take Montgomery ahead of RBs ranked ahead of him like nixon, Akers and swift.

While I wouldnt want to draft him in the first or second he is better than ones who will.

Montgomery over Akers is a bold call. Mixon and Swift are close, but Akers is a full tier ahead, imo.

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