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Eduardo Rodriguez 2021 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

He’s no longer starting opening day due to dead arm. I’m also a fan, but this news isn’t great.

Ahhh...I didn’t read that. Thanks for the info. 

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Deadarm is not all that uncommon for a SP in spring training. Especially for a guy who didn’t pitch last season.

the news lowers his outlook a little bit, but it shouldn’t.

He is a definite value in drafts.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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28 minutes ago, Words said:

Anybody know what is going on with him? His last two starts have been pretty lousy. Hope he turns it around today. 

Tough matchups mostly I think, at Toronto and at Philly. So today’s home vs Miami start was looking nice until it got postponed. Now he goes at Houston tomorrow, not excited about that.

His peripherals still look pretty solid despite the rough ERA.

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The start before those wasn't great, either, but he has gotten progressively worse after a strong start to the season. I think it's time to stop dismissing that as tough matchups. He's got the Yankees next. This year, that hasn't really been a tough matchup. 

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He's got a 5.64 ERA, but a 3.58 xERA, 3.70 FIP and 3.33 xFIP. Bad luck is at least partly to blame.

But there are worrying signs. He had a 29.2 K% and 2.2 BB% in April, but a 23.2 K% and 8.0 BB% in May. Swinging strike rate of only 9.6% does not bode well. He did have a brutal schedule in May but that will happen a lot when you're in the AL East. PitcherList has not been a fan and currently has him 80th in their rest-of-season rankings.

Hard to figure out what to do with him at the moment. He's not nearly as bad as his ERA suggests, is a decent source of strikeouts and when he's on he racks up the wins with the Red Sox offense backing him. But with all the injuries this year, not everyone can afford to hold a guy getting rocked in hopes he gets back to mid-rotation level.

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

He's got a 5.64 ERA, but a 3.58 xERA, 3.70 FIP and 3.33 xFIP. Bad luck is at least partly to blame.


Considering he also has a 3.55 SIERA (which is actually more predictive, by a small margin, than xFIP) in nearly 60 innings, I think we can conclude that bad luck is mostly to blame.   

Buy low target IMHO.  I've made several offers that have all been rejected.  


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  • 4 weeks later...

A nice start yesterday, was cruising until giving up a 2-run HR to Judge in the 6th.

Got me thinking… seems like he often starts a game really well and then runs until trouble later on. So I looked at his time through the order splits.

First time: 3.77 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 0.87 HR/9
Second time: 4.18 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.11 HR/9
Third time: 13:50 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 2.93 HR/9

Not sure what to make of that. He has a nice variety of pitches so that shouldn’t be it. Maybe fatigue is a factor, he did miss a whole year and wasn’t allowed to work out at all. Maybe he just gets predictable. Or it could be coincidence. Whatever it is, it would be nice if it could stop.

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