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Means has an ADP of 225 while Rogers is going around 415. The conventional fantasy manager would choose Means without a second thought. I’m not a conventional manager by most standards and would choose the upside in Rogers. I’ve been fading Means and targeting Rogers in all my drafts.

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Steamer projections:

Means - 8 W, 8 k/9, 4.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (160 IP)

Rogers - 8 W, 9 k/9, 3.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (124 IP)

I'd go Rogers--never been a Means believer.

 

Help w mine?

 

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Until Rogers puts up a good season in the majors I'll pass on him.  Means has already showed he has good stuff & only hit a rough patch last season due the death of his father.  Since you're not in a keeper league it's pretty clear to go with Means.  The consensus ADP's are so far off, it's literally not even close.  Put it this way, if you keep Means & then Rogers has the better season it just "means" (see what I did there?) that everyone was wrong this year, not just you.  Also, this isn't a make or break your season type decision.

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Guessing with these bottom of the rotation guys is like taking out a magic 8-ball.  No idea.  You can make an argument for either depending on whether you believe in their stuff or not.  Means has looked good at times, but is on a bad team in a bad park for pitchers and has hardly been lights out.  Rogers has not done squat in his limited MLB time (in fact has been brutally bad) and what he does in ST does not really carry much weight imo.  That said, he probably has a higher ceiling....maybe.

Anyone who seriously thinks they can predict this stuff with any sort of accuracy\consistency and does not think the biggest factor involved is blind luck in guessing right (albeit an educated guess) is only kidding themselves imo.  If forced to choose, I probably go with Rogers as a lottery ticket.  If he does well, great. If not, just cut and pick up someone else.

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