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Paul Goldschmidt 2021 Outlook


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Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I am starting this thread in reaction to the mock draft on here as well as other mock drafts I have been in where, consistently, Goldy is going so cheap.  we are less than a week away from opening day and no thread yet on this once top superstar.

Did he really fall that much in value?  

In 2020 Goldy:

a) had his 2nd best walk rate ever 16%

b) had his best K rate ever 18.6%

c) Had his lowest GB% and highest LD% ever, along with his worst ever HR/FB rate.

His Sprint Speed fell off but generally there's no SB from 1B anyways.

He's going for like 70th overall on average but in the mocks I've seen he's going for like 80-100 range.  Way too low IMO.

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I ended up with Paul Hopefully-Bitcoinschmidt somewhat reluctantly ... I kind of bought into the mini-resurgence of some underlying stats last year, but I'm far from excited.  The other options were Voit (bullet dodged) and Olson who actually went for six bucks less than Goldie ... ugh.

 Arenado should offer a bit of protection, but I think the power-loss and perhaps more importantly the speed-loss is real.  I'm hoping for something like 85-90/27-32/90-100/5-10/.285-.295 and if I can get that I'll be ecstatic. 

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Guys just don't age like they used to ... what happened to the days of scrappy OFs like Steve Finley committing themselves to the weight room in their late 30s and suddenly rattling off 5+ years of thirtyish homers after not sniffing anything close to that in their youth.

Players these days seem to be following more normal aging curves ... probably they just don't work as hard.  Probably.

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1 minute ago, KingJoffrey said:

Olson is too much of a batting average risk.  Goldy I like a lot more.

FWIW Lindy's ranked Goldy 3rd overall for 1st basemen.

Completely agree with you. The floor for Olson’s AVG has me extremely uninterested in him. I do think Goldy will have a good season and outperform his ADP by a decent margin. I’m even more excited for Arenado hitting behind him too. 

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Just now, Dislimb said:

Completely agree with you. The floor for Olson’s AVG has me extremely uninterested in him. I do think Goldy will have a good season and outperform his ADP by a decent margin. I’m even more excited for Arenado hitting behind him too. 

Keep going ... I'm loving optimistic posts on Bitcoinschmidt ...

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As I've completed my roto draft, and continue to do even more research as the season begins I have this sense this statement is true:  Looking at last season as any sort of barometer for this upcoming season is awfully hard to do (for vets) outside of young kids flashing.

Just like I think Matt Olson's average shouldn't be a concern (he's overhauled his swing this offseason), I think owners can still expect Goldy to produce his usual .280-.300 30/90 season.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I saw something on the Braves broadcast last night showing the top 4 players with balls hit with average exit velocity of 95+ and he’s number 4 behind Acuña and a couple other expected guys. Acuña and the others, I don’t remember who, had 20 balls but harder than 95+ and Goldy had 19.

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41 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

I saw something on the Braves broadcast last night showing the top 4 players with balls hit with average exit velocity of 95+ and he’s number 4 behind Acuña and a couple other expected guys. Acuña and the others, I don’t remember who, had 20 balls but harder than 95+ and Goldy had 19.

Goldy is a notorious slow starter. The fact that he is already smoking the ball as well as the above number indicates, has me ecstatic. Eventually those hard hit balls will start going for XBH. Stay the course, buy low if you can.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

What's the feeling with Goldy? To this point he's produced decent counting stats, but his .251 BA and .732 OPS leave a lot to be desired. He's got 4 steals this year, so that's helping his managers, but his plate discipline has gone in the complete opposite direction from last year, when he showed very good discipline. He's currently striking out about 24% of PAs and only walking 8%, but nothing in the current profile is too out of line with his career numbers. The biggest reason to be encouraged is BABIP, currently at .304, which is a good 40-50 points below his career norms. If that simply normalizes, the BA and OPS should follow too. His current exit velo is also a career high. Might be a good idea to send out an offer in case his manager is underwhelmed, because he's a hot streak away from thrusting himself back into the top 100 players. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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All I can do is hope he does something like 2019, when he had a similarly lackluster start, but then at some point in the summer he homered I believe six games in a row and got his stat line back on track.  

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  • 1 month later...

4 homers in his last 5 games. He’s been crushing the ball this year, knew he was bound to get hot. Literally traded for him right as the homer streak began, love me some Goldie. 

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24 minutes ago, KrunK said:

4 homers in his last 5 games. He’s been crushing the ball this year, knew he was bound to get hot. Literally traded for him right as the homer streak began, love me some Goldie. 

Good idea. He’s been a second half guy for a few years now. Expecting his line to look real good by season’s end.

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9 hours ago, Caelum said:

Good idea. He’s been a second half guy for a few years now. Expecting his line to look real good by season’s end.

Yeah I meant to note here a few days ago, he's on a 14 game hit streak with 5 HRs, 11 R, 13 RBI in that span. BA has gone up 20 points to .273 in that period, and the OPS is sitting at exactly .800. He's very steady, and if he gets a real hot streak going, could provide some surplus value. He's also stepped up when Arenado has gone into maybe his 2nd big slump of the year, although the Cards are still in free fall mode.

Edited by Richard Kimble
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  • 1 month later...

Goldy had himself a day! He connected twice against the electric Tarik Skubal for solo shots and scored the winning run in the 10th inning of a 3-2 win over the Tigers. Oh, and he stole his 10th base of the year. The steals are really nice to see again, and at this point of the season, I like having a solid veteran like Goldschmidt to finish strong. Other players having rough years may not be able to provide much going forward, and young players may face shut downs for any minor injury, but a well seasoned pro like Goldy is going to stay in the lineup and bring home his numbers until the final game of the season. 

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