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Corbin owners RN 🙄    

I’m not listening to you Corbin truthers. I’m out. Good luck fellas. 

2 hours ago, Macgregor said:

I appreciate this. Had to go back and recheck my pre-auction rankings and price lists last night. I've been a fan of Corbin for awhile and was really, really hoping I'd landed some value in getting a repeat of '18/'19. 

What gives you confidence going forward?

I just don’t think many of the starters on the waiver wire have the upside Corbin does if he can fix himself. 2 bad starts it’s still just 2 bad starts. 2020 doesn’t count for me when evaluating players. It was also a very small sample in a weird year. I’ve seen Corbin have spouts of ineffectiveness without being able to locate his fastball and have bad stretches.

I just rather him sit on my bench for a few more games and read analysis than drop him for someone who just had one good game or something. In a shallow league might be different. 
 

He might have cost me my matchup in a league this week, I’m not very happy with him. I think as a whole people are in a rush to make moves because they are acting like it’s a 60 game season and we don’t have 2-3 more starts to wait for him to be fixed. Actually this year we do.   Maybe he won’t turn it around but I’ll wait before I do something drastic .

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I just don’t think many of the starters on the waiver wire have the upside Corbin does if he can fix himself. 2 bad starts it’s still just 2 bad starts. 2020 doesn’t count for me when evaluating players. It was also a very small sample in a weird year. I’ve seen Corbin have spouts of ineffectiveness without being able to locate his fastball and have bad stretches.

I just rather him sit on my bench for a few more games and read analysis than drop him for someone who just had one good game or something. In a shallow league might be different. 
 

He might have cost me my matchup in a league this week, I’m not very happy with him. I think as a whole people are in a rush to make moves because they are acting like it’s a 60 game season and we don’t have 2-3 more starts to wait for him to be fixed. Actually this year we do.   Maybe he won’t turn it around but I’ll wait before I do something drastic .

This is how people win leagues. Accept that he sucked but think long term. If you can stash him and protect your team do it all day. 
Every time I hear someone say “rage dropped” I know there is an opportunity to profit. 

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29 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I just don’t think many of the starters on the waiver wire have the upside Corbin does if he can fix himself. 2 bad starts it’s still just 2 bad starts. 2020 doesn’t count for me when evaluating players. It was also a very small sample in a weird year. I’ve seen Corbin have spouts of ineffectiveness without being able to locate his fastball and have bad stretches.

I just rather him sit on my bench for a few more games and read analysis than drop him for someone who just had one good game or something. In a shallow league might be different. 
 

He might have cost me my matchup in a league this week, I’m not very happy with him. I think as a whole people are in a rush to make moves because they are acting like it’s a 60 game season and we don’t have 2-3 more starts to wait for him to be fixed. Actually this year we do.   Maybe he won’t turn it around but I’ll wait before I do something drastic .

Second season.  Not two mere starts.

25 minutes ago, Smallball said:

This is how people win leagues. Accept that he sucked but think long term. If you can stash him and protect your team do it all day. 
Every time I hear someone say “rage dropped” I know there is an opportunity to profit. 

I didn't "rage drop."  I don't do that.  But this is the second season he has sucked.

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I don't have any Corbin exposure this year, but I can't see the case for "easy hold" in standard 12-team formats with 5 or 6 bench slots and a lot of starting lineup spots to fill.  The velo and spin rate on his secondaries are both on a pretty steep downward trajectory in the last few years, and when those aren't missing barrels or catching corners, his fastball is extremely hittable.  Maybe he figures it out, but there's an opportunity cost to having him occupy a bench spot for another 2-3 starts to find out, and while someone is probably going to roll the dice on him instead of letting him sit on the wire, there are usually serviceable streamers or upside dart throws that can deliver a similar return on investment.  We're not talking about someone with an extensive track record of elite production who had a bad couple of months.

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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Second season.  Not two mere starts.

I didn't "rage drop."  I don't do that.  But this is the second season he has sucked.

Ok? Did anyone say you did that?

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30 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't have any Corbin exposure this year, but I can't see the case for "easy hold" in standard 12-team formats with 5 or 6 bench slots and a lot of starting lineup spots to fill.  

This is exactly where I'm at right now. 

The fact that my pitching is strong enough that Corbin is the bottom of my depth only furthers the temptation to do without him completely in order to strengthen my roster elsewhere. 

Edited by Macgregor
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Corbin's problem is that he's never had a deep, versatile arsenal. There are guys like Zack Greinke who age well because they throw five pitches effectively and can make subtle tweaks to their pitch mix when something stops working. That's not Corbin. His success in 2018 and 2019 came from throwing his unhittable slider 40% of the time.

Now that slider has lost about 3 MPH of velo and 200 RPM of spin rate. Can he get that back? Maybe. Seems unlikely at 31. Can he improve his other pitches and reinvent himself? Maybe. But I'm not sure there's enough upside in that version to waste a roster spot.

 

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10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Second season.  Not two mere starts.

I didn't "rage drop."  I don't do that.  But this is the second season he has sucked.

As I said, I'm not putting much stock into 2020 (for anyone).  It's weird that you would feel so strongly about 2020 and roster him in 2021 if you felt that way only to cut him after 2 starts. He could be done, but I'll wait it out on my bench, I don't play in 12 team leagues with a few bench spots. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I watched the game. First inning was rough, seemed like everything was getting hit decently and making Schwarber work in LF, but settled down nicely after that. I mean he only issued 2 hits over the next 5 innings after that.

Was getting up to 92-93 on the fb too.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

I watched the game. First inning was rough, seemed like everything was getting hit decently and making Schwarber work in LF, but settled down nicely after that. I mean he only issued 2 hits over the next 5 innings after that.

Was getting up to 92-93 on the fb too.

 

 

So on a scale of 1 to Gausman, how fast should be be running to the waiver wire to pick up this guy?

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Just now, Picard56 said:

So on a scale of 1 to Gausman, how fast should be be running to the waiver wire to pick up this guy?

I was the one saying he shouldn't be on waiver wires except for shallow leagues before this game. I dunno. I don't make weekly lists like PitcherList. They ranked him 49 coming into this week.  If your league rosters 50-60 SPs consistently (without streaming) at least, I'd say he's probably worth owning.

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I was the one saying he shouldn't be on waiver wires except for shallow leagues before this game. I dunno. I don't make weekly lists like PitcherList. They ranked him 49 coming into this week.  If your league rosters 50-60 SPs consistently (without streaming) at least, I'd say he's probably worth owning.

We start 100 SPs in my league, that last start is forgivable.

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Looked nasty today. Announcers were talking about how he finally was finishing pitches and may have "found his routine" 

 

I am encouraged

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19 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

I watched the game. First inning was rough, seemed like everything was getting hit decently and making Schwarber work in LF, but settled down nicely after that. I mean he only issued 2 hits over the next 5 innings after that.

Was getting up to 92-93 on the fb too.

 

 

That's like a 3mph increase.  What can that be attributed to?   Vaccine issues?

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10 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

That's like a 3mph increase.  What can that be attributed to?   Vaccine issues?

Watched this closely as I just "bought low" in my NL only before this start.

He was sitting at like 90-91, some 89.5s in there, but hit 92-93 multiple times including a nasty K to get goldie on a 93 MPH. I will say they touted his control re: the walks but there were clearly times especially early that he had no idea where his offspeed stuff was going, but he made it work

Announcers were talking about usual baseball nonsense. How he was "finishing his pitches with confidence," finally "in his routine" after the tumultuous start, etc. Interestingly they also said that him tinkering with a changeup in the spring may have messed with his grip on his other pitches early on.

IDK if I buy any of that, but he definitely didn't get lucky tonight. Looked like a darn good pitcher against a good lineup. 

 

 

Edited by cyberer
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2 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Is it possible/probable that his velocity continues to increase?  ...umm...asking for a friend 

Maybe, maybe they found a mechanical issue... His next start comes against the Jays, so that will be another test for him.

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20 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

That's like a 3mph increase.  What can that be attributed to?   Vaccine issues?

Vaccine + abbreivated spring after weird year + some age.  

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/patrick-corbin-571578?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

You can look at his yearly fb velocity. People freaking out about him throwing 90 in start #2 after the vaccine. He was 90.8 in 2018, 91.8 in 2019.  He was great those years. Fastball plays 1-2 faster for lefties. He's never been a heater guy.  He was commanding the fastball decently enough and it was setting up his slider better. He did seem to get more comfortable as the game went on.  He was a lefty facing a righty stack 1-6 too.  I was pretty discouraged after inning 1, but he was pretty good after that.  Don't know why, but it really feels like people were acting like was throwing 95+ or something before.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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25 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Vaccine + abbreivated spring after weird year + some age.  

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/patrick-corbin-571578?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

You can look at his yearly fb velocity. People freaking out about him throwing 90 in start #2 after the vaccine. He was 90.8 in 2018, 91.8 in 2019.  He was great those years. Fastball plays 1-2 faster for lefties. He's never been a heater guy.  He was commanding the fastball decently enough and it was setting up his slider better. He did seem to get more comfortable as the game went on.  He was a lefty facing a righty stack 1-6 too.  I was pretty discouraged after inning 1, but he was pretty good after that.  Don't know why, but it really feels like people were acting like was throwing 95+ or something before.

Great stuff as always.

Every single industry expert, prognosticator, analyst, article,xm host declared him dead and un savable.  Vaccine, covid, or the stats you mentioned weren't even touched on. I'm not saying that's what it is, and their collective knowledge is better than mine.  But you'd think it would be brought up at some point.   Still trying to gather info personally, but I doubt I'd drop him now.  I won't start him against the jays either.

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I'm still concerned about his slider. He threw 31 of them last night and got 3 whiffs. That's not great.

Slider stats
2018: 81.7 velo, 2389 spin, 53.1% whiff rate
2019: 81.7 velo, 2398 spin, 51.4% whiff rate
2020: 79.2 velo, 2241 spin, 38.1% whiff rate
2021: 78.3 velo, 2215 spin, 32.3% whiff rate

It's not the same pitch, and without it he's not the same pitcher. This new version might be decent or useful but he won't be anywhere close to his past acelike levels IMO.

 

 

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Just now, SpartyOn4 said:

I'm still concerned about his slider. He threw 31 of them last night and got 3 whiffs. That's not great.

Slider stats
2018: 81.7 velo, 2389 spin, 53.1% whiff rate
2019: 81.7 velo, 2398 spin, 51.4% whiff rate
2020: 79.2 velo, 2241 spin, 38.1% whiff rate
2021: 78.3 velo, 2215 spin, 32.3% whiff rate

It's not the same pitch, and without it he's not the same pitcher. This new version might be decent or useful but he won't be anywhere close to his past acelike levels IMO.

 

 

Saw that mentioned on Pitchers List this morning on their sp roundup, I don't know what to make of it yet... still just three starts. Gonna be interesting to see what he does the next two weeks with some tougher opponents.

I don't know if he was ever truly an Ace, but a very useful Sp3-sp2. If he can regain some of those strikeout numbers from 2018-2019, that's more than serviceable this year. As mentioned before he got a late start to his ST, this month seems like extended ST for him to get up to speed.

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13 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I'm still concerned about his slider. He threw 31 of them last night and got 3 whiffs. That's not great.

Slider stats
2018: 81.7 velo, 2389 spin, 53.1% whiff rate
2019: 81.7 velo, 2398 spin, 51.4% whiff rate
2020: 79.2 velo, 2241 spin, 38.1% whiff rate
2021: 78.3 velo, 2215 spin, 32.3% whiff rate

It's not the same pitch, and without it he's not the same pitcher. This new version might be decent or useful but he won't be anywhere close to his past acelike levels IMO.

 

 

 

it's certainly possible, but I mean those first two starts are going to drag down those 2021 numbers when he's only had 3.   What matters is what those numbers will be for the next 25 starts. Agree that if they are the same of what they were recently, that's a big blow.

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11 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Saw that mentioned on Pitchers List this morning on their sp roundup, I don't know what to make of it yet... still just three starts. Gonna be interesting to see what he does the next two weeks with some tougher opponents.

I don't know if he was ever truly an Ace, but a very useful Sp3-sp2. If he can regain some of those strikeout numbers from 2018-2019, that's more than serviceable this year. As mentioned before he got a late start to his ST, this month seems like extended ST for him to get up to speed.

Do we have game specific game info? I'd be curious what it was at in the 1st 2 games versus this last one.

 

Edit: @brockpapersizerbasically beat me to the punch.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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