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https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-908-our-high-profile-fades/

Basing this off this podcast and it was a fun exercise.  

(Using Main Event ADP-MUST BE TOP 10 AT C-1B-2B-SS-3B-RP; TOP 25 AT SP-OF)

Mine based on their ADP.  I have zero shares of these guys...

C - Will Smith

1b - Cody Bellinger

2b - Cavan Biggio

3b - Nolan Arenado

SS - Bo Bichette

OF - Arozarena

SP -  Strasburg easy one.  Buehler, bolder

RP - Karinchak, easy one.  Hader bolder

 

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So basically we just go down the ADP and pick the highest ranked player we won't ever pick under any circumstances?

C- Realmuto

1B- Vlad

2B- Biggio

3B- Arenado (also Bregman but he's later)

SS- Baez (would have said bichette but was about to take him in the third round of this recent mock draft LMAO)

OF- Yelich, Robert, Lewis

SP- Bieber

RP- Karinchak 

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10 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

So basically we just go down the ADP and pick the highest ranked player we won't ever pick under any circumstances?

C- Realmuto

1B- Vlad

2B- Biggio

3B- Arenado (also Bregman but he's later)

SS- Baez (would have said bichette but was about to take him in the third round of this recent mock draft LMAO)

OF- Yelich, Robert, Lewis

SP- Bieber

RP- Karinchak 

Curious why you're fading Bieber and Yelich?

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Hitters:

Bellinger, Luis Robert, Stanton, Judge, Arenado, Biggio, Altuve, Gallo

Starters:

Lamet, Paddack, Strasburg, Sixto, Corbin, Marquez, Ohtani, Kluber, Means

Closers:

Karinchak, Rodriguez

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21 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Curious why you're fading Bieber and Yelich?

I have hesitations with Bieber because I’m worried about his easy schedule last year and I think he could easily revert to 3-5th round value.  I don’t think he’s a bust just think he’s over drafted  

Yelich I’m just not willing to take the risk on with a pick that early.   I’m worried about him running and his abysmal season last year.  

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Almost all the high profile names that came to mind have already been mentioned, except one:  Kris Bryant.

When a guy who's [finally] about to become an unrestricted free agent and is expecting a mammoth payday looks as f***-awful as he has during Spring Training you have to wonder if skill erosion and/or injuries have fully set in.

**Could also be that the guy has never seriously hit the weight room in his life (see image, below).  You can maybe rely on god-tier genetics when you're in your 20s, but as you drift slowly into your thirties you need to find the bench press and squat rack and get to work.  Yeah, leg day sucks, I know, but get it done.  

bryant_k_usatsi_15613379.jpg

Edited by Overlord
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So many of the high end SP for me, I just can’t wrap my head around taking guys like Bauer and Darvish who have had more “ok” seasons than “ good ones”.  Especiall taking these guys over established stud hitters.  Sherzer, I’m sorry simply has too many inning under his belt for me to buy in.

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14 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I have hesitations with Bieber because I’m worried about his easy schedule last year and I think he could easily revert to 3-5th round value.  I don’t think he’s a bust just think he’s over drafted  

Yelich I’m just not willing to take the risk on with a pick that early.   I’m worried about him running and his abysmal season last year.  

I completely agree with you on Bieber. I still think he's a great pitcher, but there's no way I would spend a first round pick on him.

Yelich, however, I feel differently on. His BABIP last year (.259) was nearly 100 points lower than his career BABIP (.354) is which speaks to very bad luck. He also had the best walk rate (18.6%) of his career by a wide margin and ended up with a respectable OBP of .356 despite having an abysmal .205 AVG. I really think he's going to bounce back. While I don't doubt that he's never going to swipe 30 bags again, I still think he can steal 10-15 bases while being a 30+ homer guy while maintaining good rate stats. I'm in on him.

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

C - W.Smith

1B - Alonso

2B - Hiura

SS - Bichette

3B - Guerrero

OF - Conforto

SP - Maeda

RP  - Jansen

Why are you fading Conforto, he's been nothing but consistent his entire career and only seems to be getting better. 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Almost all the high profile names that came to mind have already been mentioned, except one:  Kris Bryant.

When a guy who's [finally] about to become an unrestricted free agent and is expecting a mammoth payday looks as f***-awful as he has during Spring Training you have to wonder if skill erosion and/or injuries have fully set in.

**Could also be that the guy has never seriously hit the weight room in his life (see image, below).  You can maybe rely on god-tier genetics when you're in your 20s, but as you drift slowly into your thirties you need to find the bench press and squat rack and get to work.  Yeah, leg day sucks, I know, but get it done.  

bryant_k_usatsi_15613379.jpg

Never ever skip leg day.

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1 minute ago, KingJoffrey said:

Why is everyone fading Calvin Biggio? Is he even a high profile player?  He’s more likely to get better than worse.

Also can’t figure out hate for will smith c

I think maybe people don't like Biggio's ADP maybe. Good ball player, but not high on him for fantasy  this year.

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11 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Why is everyone fading Calvin Biggio? Is he even a high profile player?  He’s more likely to get better than worse.

Also can’t figure out hate for will smith c

Only Calvin I would draft is Cambridge.

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32 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Why is everyone fading Calvin Biggio? Is he even a high profile player?  He’s more likely to get better than worse.

He's very polarizing in fantasy circles due to the fact that he doesn't hit the ball hard but so far hasn't been punished for it.  The plate discipline is elite and the steals are nice, but the lineup spot is going to cut into his counting stats, and if you're in a batting average league, his reasonable 2021 projections don't justify his current ADP.

34 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Also can’t figure out hate for will smith c

I think it's just people reacting to Roberts saying he was only going to give him ~90 games of run.  Maybe that's just coachspeak, but as good a hitter as Smith is, it's hard to justify taking a catcher early if they're in almost an equal time share.

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49 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

Why are you fading Conforto, he's been nothing but consistent his entire career and only seems to be getting better. 

I think similar value (like L.Gurriel) can be had later in most drafts,

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2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

I don't see why the hate for Arenado. I don't think hitting away from Coors is gonna affect him all that much with a .280 30/100 floor.

It really depends on where he's being drafted. I'd say he's a fade for round 1 - 3, but perfectly fine after. 

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2 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I have hesitations with Bieber because I’m worried about his easy schedule last year and I think he could easily revert to 3-5th round value.  I don’t think he’s a bust just think he’s over drafted  

Yelich I’m just not willing to take the risk on with a pick that early.   I’m worried about him running and his abysmal season last year.  

...but Bieber was an absolute stud in 2019 (full season) too.

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

Hitters:

Bellinger, Luis Robert, Stanton, Judge, Arenado, Biggio, Altuve, Gallo

Starters:

Lamet, Paddack, Strasburg, Sixto, Corbin, Marquez, Ohtani, Kluber, Means

Closers:

Karinchak, Rodriguez

Fading Stanton makes zero sense given his 100+ ADP. He's well worth the risk at that point in the draft IMO. Same with Gallo to a lesser extent. 

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I'm fading Jack Flaherty.  Owned him last year.  Once bitten, twice shy.  I remember someone posting how his slider wasn't actually elite or something like that.  Really had only 1 good half of a season.

Edited by KingJoffrey
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Bellinger feels as though his risk is baked into his price. I’m bullish on him with this discount. All we needed was to see he’s healthy during spring training and we have evidence of that. 

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