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2 minutes ago, mike11 said:

Bellinger feels as though his risk is baked into his price. I’m bullish on him with this discount. All we needed was to see he’s healthy during spring training and we have evidence of that. 

He's the one player I drafted that I am a little worried about.

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#highprofilefades

That's cool, but before you leave make sure you leave your fades of top players.

AKA value pick thread.

2 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

He's the one player I drafted that I am a little worried about.

I get the worry but his upside at round 2/3 is massive. 40 homer 15 steal 270+ avg and great for obp potential? Sign me up for the risk I guess, he’s still young and has the potential to continue improving too.

Also 1B has a massive drop off I think. Belli and Freeman are the only super premium guys in my eyes. Idk how much longer we can trust Abreu, Vlads best season doesn’t touch Belli (yet).

 

 

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Just now, mike11 said:

I get the worry but his upside at round 2/3 is massive. 40 homer 15 steal 270+ avg and great for obp potential? Sign me up for the risk I guess, he’s still young and has the potential to continue improving too.

Also 1B has a massive drop off I think. Belli and Freeman are the only super premium guys in my eyes. Idk how much longer we can trust Abreu, Vlads best season doesn’t touch Belli (yet).

 

 

Yeah I think it will pay off in the end. I thought about trying to trade him for Harper cause they have similar projections. Bellinger is probably in the best lineup and only two years removed from hitting 47 homers I think. The shoulder surgery scared me, but his swing looks as violent as ever during ST.

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Fading Stanton makes zero sense given his 100+ ADP. He's well worth the risk at that point in the draft IMO. Same with Gallo to a lesser extent. 

Gallo is projected to hit between.206 and .216 between the various projection systems. I don’t want that batting average drain. Factor in that the rest of the Rangers offense is terrible and the new ballpark is playing very pitcher-friendly and I’m just not interested. On several occasions throughout the year last year he mentioned how difficult it is to hit in that park.

I’ve been burned by Stanton too many times. If he stays healthy this year and hits 40-50 dingers props to him and anyone that drafted him.

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5 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-908-our-high-profile-fades/

Basing this off this podcast and it was a fun exercise.  

(Using Main Event ADP-MUST BE TOP 10 AT C-1B-2B-SS-3B-RP; TOP 25 AT SP-OF)

Mine based on their ADP.  I have zero shares of these guys...

C - Will Smith

1b - Cody Bellinger

2b - Cavan Biggio

3b - Nolan Arenado

SS - Bo Bichette

OF - Arozarena

SP -  Strasburg easy one.  Buehler, bolder

RP - Karinchak, easy one.  Hader bolder

 

If you're fading hard, you must be buying somewhere else on those players' rosters. Its only logical.

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6 hours ago, Overlord said:

Almost all the high profile names that came to mind have already been mentioned, except one:  Kris Bryant.

When a guy who's [finally] about to become an unrestricted free agent and is expecting a mammoth payday looks as f***-awful as he has during Spring Training you have to wonder if skill erosion and/or injuries have fully set in.

**Could also be that the guy has never seriously hit the weight room in his life (see image, below).  You can maybe rely on god-tier genetics when you're in your 20s, but as you drift slowly into your thirties you need to find the bench press and squat rack and get to work.  Yeah, leg day sucks, I know, but get it done.  

bryant_k_usatsi_15613379.jpg

I’ll add Rizzo as a fade I haven’t seen mentioned yet. I was never that high on him to begin with and he was lousy last year. Even a decent bounce back and I can’t see myself drafting him

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7 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Why is everyone fading Calvin Biggio? Is he even a high profile player?  He’s more likely to get better than worse.

Also can’t figure out hate for will smith c

His stat cast is very ugly and he’s moving down in the order.

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Cody Bellinger & Walker Buehler - and it's not even close.

Bellinger has honestly looked like hot garbage since August of the 2019 season. (Yes, that far back). For anyone who wants perspective on that....He was hitting .350 BA entering the month of July, and finished the season with a batting average just over .300 BA. A drop of almost 50 points between July and September. His batting averages by month in that year: .500, .416, .319, .272, .265, .235, .280. In 2020, he reverted back to his old ways, and came back down to earth. Pitchers have figured him out. And Bellinger hasn't made corrections. Until he does (if he does), he will go back to being a mediocre .250 - .260 BA guy, still possessing 35/10 potential. But the days of me considering him as being a Top-20 pick are long over. There's easily 30+ guys I'd take instantly before him, and another 10 or so that I'd give consideration to...

Buehler have a little more hope for, but I started seeing a bit of consistency issues. Last year, he gave up 7 HRs in just 36 IP after only allowing 20 in 182 IP in 2019. Had he stayed on that same route and pitched 180 innings, he was on pace for a whopping 35 HRs given up. Now obviously, I think he would've made corrections somewhere along the line had that been the case. But definitely felt like he was well on his way to giving up a lot more had the season been longer. He's looked downright awful this spring, His ERA over the past 3 years: 2.62, 3.26, 3.44. I don't put a lot of stock in it, but if you count last year, it makes two straight years where you're beginning to see his ERA slowly creep up. The K upside will always be there, and while his WHIP actually got better, it seemed like he always "gave up the big hit". I don't consider him to be a Top-10 pitcher, nor a Top-15 pitcher. I believe he will make the corrections, but until then, I am fading him. I need to see him correct everything, especially after the horrendous spring training he's had.

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10 hours ago, meh2 said:

Gallo is projected to hit between.206 and .216 between the various projection systems. I don’t want that batting average drain. Factor in that the rest of the Rangers offense is terrible and the new ballpark is playing very pitcher-friendly and I’m just not interested. On several occasions throughout the year last year he mentioned how difficult it is to hit in that park.

I’ve been burned by Stanton too many times. If he stays healthy this year and hits 40-50 dingers props to him and anyone that drafted him.

 

Stanton stayed relatively healthy in 2018 and hit nearly 40 HRs. If this was a normal year and he was being taken in the top 40 I'd get it, but what other player can you draft around 120 with that kind of upside? I've typically steered clear of him in the past, but I think this is the year to invest because of stock being down. 

As for Gallo, I agree, but he's going soooooooo late in drafts (even later than Stanton) that it seems like a risk worth taking, especially if you're solid in batting average up to that point. If not, I can completely understand avoiding him. 

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5 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Cody Bellinger & Walker Buehler - and it's not even close.

Bellinger has honestly looked like hot garbage since August of the 2019 season. (Yes, that far back). For anyone who wants perspective on that....He was hitting .350 BA entering the month of July, and finished the season with a batting average just over .300 BA. A drop of almost 50 points between July and September. His batting averages by month in that year: .500, .416, .319, .272, .265, .235, .280. In 2020, he reverted back to his old ways, and came back down to earth. Pitchers have figured him out. And Bellinger hasn't made corrections. Until he does (if he does), he will go back to being a mediocre .250 - .260 BA guy, still possessing 35/10 potential. But the days of me considering him as being a Top-20 pick are long over. There's easily 30+ guys I'd take instantly before him, and another 10 or so that I'd give consideration to...

Buehler have a little more hope for, but I started seeing a bit of consistency issues. Last year, he gave up 7 HRs in just 36 IP after only allowing 20 in 182 IP in 2019. Had he stayed on that same route and pitched 180 innings, he was on pace for a whopping 35 HRs given up. Now obviously, I think he would've made corrections somewhere along the line had that been the case. But definitely felt like he was well on his way to giving up a lot more had the season been longer. He's looked downright awful this spring, His ERA over the past 3 years: 2.62, 3.26, 3.44. I don't put a lot of stock in it, but if you count last year, it makes two straight years where you're beginning to see his ERA slowly creep up. The K upside will always be there, and while his WHIP actually got better, it seemed like he always "gave up the big hit". I don't consider him to be a Top-10 pitcher, nor a Top-15 pitcher. I believe he will make the corrections, but until then, I am fading him. I need to see him correct everything, especially after the horrendous spring training he's had.

Ya, maybe it comes back to bite me, but I'm not messing with either of these guys.  Belly with the late start off of injury.  Buehler I'm not sold the Dodgers don't baby him.  Still love both of these players long term.  This year as top 20 picks, not so much.  

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41 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Ya, maybe it comes back to bite me, but I'm not messing with either of these guys.  Belly with the late start off of injury.  Buehler I'm not sold the Dodgers don't baby him.  Still love both of these players long term.  This year as top 20 picks, not so much.  

Agreed.

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7 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

His stat cast is very ugly and he’s moving down in the order.

...and to be blunt, Biggio just simply isn't as talented as the Blue Jays other top prospects. He has a much lower ceiling. 

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The fade on Biggio - seems a little overblown.  He’s not the most talented blue jay.  He’s not Trout or Soto either. But he’s not going for very much.  Not sure if he doesn’t bat higher in the order.  It’s not like the Blue Jays haven’t health or consistency issues the past few years.  Who knows how long Springer is out.  He’s especially more useful in Obp leagues.

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6 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Cody Bellinger & Walker Buehler - and it's not even close.

Bellinger has honestly looked like hot garbage since August of the 2019 season. (Yes, that far back). For anyone who wants perspective on that....He was hitting .350 BA entering the month of July, and finished the season with a batting average just over .300 BA. A drop of almost 50 points between July and September. His batting averages by month in that year: .500, .416, .319, .272, .265, .235, .280. In 2020, he reverted back to his old ways, and came back down to earth. Pitchers have figured him out. And Bellinger hasn't made corrections. Until he does (if he does), he will go back to being a mediocre .250 - .260 BA guy, still possessing 35/10 potential. But the days of me considering him as being a Top-20 pick are long over. There's easily 30+ guys I'd take instantly before him, and another 10 or so that I'd give consideration to...

Buehler have a little more hope for, but I started seeing a bit of consistency issues. Last year, he gave up 7 HRs in just 36 IP after only allowing 20 in 182 IP in 2019. Had he stayed on that same route and pitched 180 innings, he was on pace for a whopping 35 HRs given up. Now obviously, I think he would've made corrections somewhere along the line had that been the case. But definitely felt like he was well on his way to giving up a lot more had the season been longer. He's looked downright awful this spring, His ERA over the past 3 years: 2.62, 3.26, 3.44. I don't put a lot of stock in it, but if you count last year, it makes two straight years where you're beginning to see his ERA slowly creep up. The K upside will always be there, and while his WHIP actually got better, it seemed like he always "gave up the big hit". I don't consider him to be a Top-10 pitcher, nor a Top-15 pitcher. I believe he will make the corrections, but until then, I am fading him. I need to see him correct everything, especially after the horrendous spring training he's had.

Bellinger is still 25, the fact that it clicked for him at age 23 is a bonus to me. He can continue to improve. At any given time any player can have a bad year, maybe Bellingers cost is a little high for that risk but I really don’t see why he’s riskier than other guys around where he goes and has a premium as a 1B to boot.

He batted 273 in the second half of the sixty game stretch last year so saying he’s been “mediocre” for 1.5 years isn’t accurate. His season average per 162 games is 39 Homers, 14 SBs 273 avg 360 obp 104 runs 102 rbis. I can double check but prettyyyy sure that’s second round value+

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17 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Mine based on their ADP.  I have zero shares of these guys...

SP -  Strasburg easy one.

 

Good list, but this one baffles me as a fade. He should be of great value. He was a buck in our keeper league.

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

The fade on Biggio - seems a little overblown.  He’s not the most talented blue jay.  He’s not Trout or Soto either. But he’s not going for very much.  Not sure if he doesn’t bat higher in the order.  It’s not like the Blue Jays haven’t health or consistency issues the past few years.  Who knows how long Springer is out.  He’s especially more useful in Obp leagues.

He's going 64.  That's pretty high.  4th 2B off the board, ahead of Lowe, Hiura, Marte & well ahead of McNeil, Altuve, Muncy & Moustakas.

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31 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

He's going 64.  That's pretty high.  4th 2B off the board, ahead of Lowe, Hiura, Marte & well ahead of McNeil, Altuve, Muncy & Moustakas.

I respectfully counter with this:

a) There's more to life than Yahoo ADP.  Biggio is ranked 7th by Lindy's and 7th or 8th from other fantasy sources. He's by no means the 4th ranked 2B by all measures.

b) Those other 2b listed are generally very close.  Within 5 -10 picks.  So taking Lowe over him isn't much of a reach at all.

c) Offers the ever scarce stolen bases.  Unlike any of the other 2B you listed after him. Providing some floor.

 

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Just now, KingJoffrey said:

I respectfully counter with this:

a) There's more to life than Yahoo ADP.  Biggio is ranked 7th by Lindy's and 7th or 8th from other fantasy sources. He's by no means the 4th ranked 2B by all measures.

b) Those other 2b listed are generally very close.  Within 5 -10 picks.  So taking Lowe over him isn't much of a reach at all.

c) Offers the ever scarce stolen bases.  Unlike any of the other 2B you listed after him. Providing some floor.

 

That’s not Yahoo ADP, its NFBC.

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3 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I respectfully counter with this:

a) There's more to life than Yahoo ADP.  Biggio is ranked 7th by Lindy's and 7th or 8th from other fantasy sources. He's by no means the 4th ranked 2B by all measures.

b) Those other 2b listed are generally very close.  Within 5 -10 picks.  So taking Lowe over him isn't much of a reach at all.

c) Offers the ever scarce stolen bases.  Unlike any of the other 2B you listed after him. Providing some floor.

 

And he's generally projected to steal between 10-15 bases.  Very possible he steals only a handful more bases than anyone I listed, save for Muncy & Moustakas.

 

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I'm not super high on him to be honest.  I'd rather have Lowe or take my chances with an Altuve bounceback.

But he was on pace for 20-25 SB in 2019.  2020 was slightly down.  But if 2020 was given prime importance,  Most of those other guys would be faded hard.

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51 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I respectfully counter with this:

a) There's more to life than Yahoo ADP.  Biggio is ranked 7th by Lindy's and 7th or 8th from other fantasy sources. He's by no means the 4th ranked 2B by all measures.

b) Those other 2b listed are generally very close.  Within 5 -10 picks.  So taking Lowe over him isn't much of a reach at all.

c) Offers the ever scarce stolen bases.  Unlike any of the other 2B you listed after him. Providing some floor.

 

Biggio's consensus ADP on FantasyPros is 61. That's ahead of Marte, Lowe, Hiura and Altuve who I personally I think are all more talented players with higher ceilings. That's the problem. He's not worth the price. Steals is just one category and you can find a way to make them at other positions. The only exception is Mondesi because he can basically single-handedly lock up that category for you. 

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19 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I'm not super high on him to be honest.  I'd rather have Lowe or take my chances with an Altuve bounceback.

But he was on pace for 20-25 SB in 2019.  2020 was slightly down.  But if 2020 was given prime importance,  Most of those other guys would be faded hard.

I'm even less willing to buy into projections from a shortened clusterf*ck of a season due to COVID. Until I see Biggio actually steal 20-25 SBs I'm not willing to buy into that being his upside. 

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