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3 hours ago, mike11 said:

Bellinger is still 25, the fact that it clicked for him at age 23 is a bonus to me. He can continue to improve. At any given time any player can have a bad year, maybe Bellingers cost is a little high for that risk but I really don’t see why he’s riskier than other guys around where he goes and has a premium as a 1B to boot.

He batted 273 in the second half of the sixty game stretch last year so saying he’s been “mediocre” for 1.5 years isn’t accurate. His season average per 162 games is 39 Homers, 14 SBs 273 avg 360 obp 104 runs 102 rbis. I can double check but prettyyyy sure that’s second round value+

I'm not denying that Bellinger won't be a useful fantasy asset. In fact, I think he'll be a Top-60 player for at least the next 3-5 seasons.

But the reason I'm fading him is because of his ADP cost. Last year I faded him HARDDDD because he was being taken at #4-6 in most drafts, which...(having lived in SoCal and watched him multiple times), was way too high. And people found that out the hard way last year. He barely finished inside the Top-100 in 5x5 leagues.

This year, it's more of the same. If you're forced to reach or take him at ADP 10-20 (which someone in our league took him at #14), the likelihood that he produces Top-15 value, let alone, improves on that based off what we know so far, is just a chance I myself would never take. He feels like a guy who should realistically be ranked somewhere in the ADP 25-40 range. There just feels like there's easily 20-25 guys I'd much rather take before him that I know exactly what I'm going to get. And I get it, Bellinger possesses 35/15 potential, on a stacked Dodgers team. I get why people like the possibilities.

We'll see what he does this year, but based off what I've seen from him over the past 1.5 seasons, it appears he's reverted back to his old ways, swinging for the fences while being off balance with his swings. We'll see if he makes the adjustments he needs to make this season. And while I don't put a lot of weight on Spring Training, he's had 25 ABs and has a 10/0 K/BB ratio. But to be fair, he's always been horrible in Spring Training.

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28 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

This year, it's more of the same. If you're forced to reach or take him at ADP 10-20 (which someone in our league took him at #14), the likelihood that he produces Top-15 value, let alone, improves on that based off what we know so far, is just a chance I myself would never take. He feels like a guy who should realistically be ranked somewhere in the ADP 25-40 range. There just feels like there's easily 20-25 guys I'd much rather take before him that I know exactly what I'm going to get. And I get it, Bellinger possesses 35/15 potential, on a stacked Dodgers team. I get why people like the possibilities.

I agree with your general sentiment that there's not enough of a discount built into his price right now.  With that said, this paragraph reads like his .267 / 39 / 10 NL ROTY and .305 / 47 / 15 NL MVP seasons didn't happen.  If a player's done something before *twice*, the only reasons I can think of for saying that their ceiling is lower than what they've already done is injury or aging.  We can rule out aging as he's just heading into his prime, so that leaves injury, and while there's a question mark, talking about 35/15 as his upside when he's done much more than that twice when healthy seems to be overstating the case.

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Bellinger's "Fade" also must take into account, we don't know where he's going to hit in the batting order.  Granted the Dodgers have no ordinary batting order. But It further lowers his downside.  I am aware he batted 4th in the last ST game.  But he generally batted 6th in the 2020 playoffs.  You got a player like J-Ram and he struggles a bit unexpectedly, he's never leaving the top of the batting order.

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3 hours ago, 89Topps said:

He's going 64.  That's pretty high.  4th 2B off the board, ahead of Lowe, Hiura, Marte & well ahead of McNeil, Altuve, Muncy & Moustakas.

. thats a price difference on sites. something like top 60 on some sites. went 7th 8th rd in all my ypro snakes.

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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Biggio's consensus ADP on FantasyPros is 61. That's ahead of Marte, Lowe, Hiura and Altuve who I personally I think are all more talented players with higher ceilings. That's the problem. He's not worth the price. Steals is just one category and you can find a way to make them at other positions. The only exception is Mondesi because he can basically single-handedly lock up that category for you. 

biggo getting the mondesi one trick pony treatment after 159 career games -24 hrs, 20 sb, 107 runs, 76 rbi, 240 avg (room for improvement imo)

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I'm going bold here...

Busts:

-Mookie Betts (barrels in 3 year decline to only 7.7% last year 48th percentile, ball not as bouncy, futility vs LHP 0 HR .531 OPS)

-Acuna Jr (Contact issues errodes further, slips under 250 avg and production suffers)

-Lindor (Mets)

-Machado (his August tear will look less appealing over a full season)

 

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Just now, StevieStats said:

I'm going bold here...

Busts:

-Mookie Betts (barrels in 3 year decline to only 7.7% last year 48th percentile, ball not as bouncy, futility vs LHP 0 HR .531 OPS)

-Acuna Jr (Contact issues errodes further, slips under 250 avg and production suffers)

-Lindor (Mets)

-Machado (his August tear will look less appealing over a full season)

 

Oh geez friend..run for your life...run with all your might!!

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13 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I'm going bold here...

Busts:

-Mookie Betts (barrels in 3 year decline to only 7.7% last year 48th percentile, ball not as bouncy, futility vs LHP 0 HR .531 OPS)

-Acuna Jr (Contact issues errodes further, slips under 250 avg and production suffers)

-Lindor (Mets)

-Machado (his August tear will look less appealing over a full season)

 

Quoting this so I can come back to it after Mookie wins MVP 

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

Interesting Ive seen a few people say this but Im not sure why other than "Mets" lol.

Lindor is a fade for ME  since I really try to avoid hitters that switch leagues.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Lindor is a fade for ME  since I really try to avoid hitters that switch leagues.

Yeah but could he do worse than last year?

Kidding..actually the problem here may be the division he is in has some good hurlers, Scherzer, Stras, Nola, Wheeler, Fried, Andersen and those up and coming Marlins.  Not like facing Tigers and KC pitching and non Giliolito White Sox.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

Lindor is a fade for ME  since I really try to avoid hitters that switch leagues.

Don't forget he is moving from Progressive Field, which has played anywhere from neutral to a top five hitters park over the past five seasons, to Citi Field, which is one of the absolute 2-3 worst parks for hitters (arguably, it's currently the worst since a few other fields have brought fences in).  

Lindor was an obvious "no thanks" for me.  

Edited by Overlord
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6 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Don't forget he is moving from Progressive Field, which has played anywhere from neutral to a top five hitters park over the past five seasons, to Citi Field, which is one of the absolute 2-3 worst parks for hitters (arguably, it's currently the worst since a few other fields have brought fences in).  

Lindor was an obvious "no thanks" for me.  

True but the Mets are loaded with Fantasy assets...Alonso, Conforto, Lindor, DomSmith.

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18 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Bellinger's "Fade" also must take into account, we don't know where he's going to hit in the batting order.  Granted the Dodgers have no ordinary batting order. But It further lowers his downside.  I am aware he batted 4th in the last ST game.  But he generally batted 6th in the 2020 playoffs.  You got a player like J-Ram and he struggles a bit unexpectedly, he's never leaving the top of the batting order.

He'll be batting cleanup.

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My biggest fade this year is Scherzer, I owned him the last half of 2019 - he was not good, in his last 8 starts that year he had 1 Quality Start, he rocked a 5+ERA in 5 or 6 starts that September.   The K rate was good last year, but so many guys K these days, I mean are we taking Robbie Ray top 6?  He is a great K guy too.  2020, the ratios were pedestrian, he will turn 37 this summer and I just think there are too many questions and doubts I have about him to pay anywhere near the price tag he has gone for this draft season.  

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24 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

While everyone is fading Bellinger he's hit two moonshots in two days and is confirmed to be batting cleanup. Carry on with the fades.

Yeah kind of relieved to see that the shoulder surgery didn't impact his power.

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2 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

While everyone is fading Bellinger he's hit two moonshots in two days and is confirmed to be batting cleanup. Carry on with the fades.

Why even do actual analysis, he’s a monster on odd years and it’s 2021 babyyy 

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I think Scherzer & Kershaw were the main ones for me, but I’ve also been pretty bearish on Bregman, Castellanos, Baez, Jansen and Castillo in drafts.  Naturally I have no shares, and with regards to Kershaw and Castillo, I’m really relieved I was (so far). 

 

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18 minutes ago, Overlord said:

How long till Belly owners can laugh about Turner robbing him of a home run?

Eh, it's one homer.  I'm a dynasty owner and laughed watching it in real-time.

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